Texas Tech vs. Akron Prediction
In the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Texas Tech vs. Akron is the first-round game at 12:40 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Akron
When: 12:40 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20th
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL
Watch: truTV
Odds for Texas Tech vs. Akron
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110), Akron +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 157.5 (-115), Under 157.5 (-105)
Texas Tech vs. Akron Prediction & Preview
Texas Tech and Akron is one of those first-round games where the storyline practically writes itself — a power-conference program navigating a crisis against a mid-major that has quietly built one of the more efficient offensive machines in the country. The problem for the Red Raiders is that the version of this team that beat Duke on a neutral floor back in December feels like a different season entirely.
JT Toppin’s torn ACL didn’t just cost Texas Tech a player. It cost them their identity. A double-double machine averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds — both figures sitting in the top 10 nationally — doesn’t get replaced with a depth chart shuffle. Luke Bamgboye chipped in some scoring and Josiah Moseley saw more run, but the real effect of losing Toppin was that the offensive burden collapsed onto Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, two of the better volume 3-point shooters in the country. Texas Tech’s 3P Rate jumped from 47.9% for the full season to 53.6% over the final five regular season games without him, which is a massive stylistic shift for a Tommy McCasland team.
What’s interesting is that McCasland didn’t respond to losing a big by playing smaller and faster — he did the opposite. He slowed the game down even further, likely trying to limit possessions and reduce variance without his best all-around player available. That approach has Under written all over it in tournament play, especially given that Toppin’s offensive rebounding is gone and the team is jacking up 3s at a higher rate than ever. Second-chance opportunities dry up fast when your biggest threat on the offensive glass is sitting in street clothes. Defensively, the Red Raiders allowed at least 1.131 points per possession in four of those five games without Toppin, which isn’t a trend you want carrying into March. McCasland used the conference tournament mostly as a maintenance exercise — understandably so after Anderson gave everyone a scare with a minor injury — so it’s genuinely hard to read where this team is right now.
Akron, on the other hand, arrives with legitimate momentum and a style of play built for upsets. John Groce has taken the Zips to the Big Dance three straight seasons, but this is the best group he’s brought with him. They needed a MAC Tournament thriller against Toledo to get here, but that 79-76 nail-biter was actually one of just three times all season that Akron won by six or fewer points in 29 victories. This team doesn’t just win — it usually dominates the teams it’s supposed to beat.
The efficiency profile is real. Top-10 offense in eFG%, top-15 in both 2P% and 3P%, and a roster where every player logging at least 20% of available minutes posted a well above average Offensive Rating and shot at least 52% on 2s. Five different players shot 37.6% or better from 3, which means Texas Tech’s already-shorthanded defense can’t afford to sag or help — there are shooters everywhere. The Zips’ biggest vulnerability is defending the arc themselves, where they ranked outside the top 250 nationally, and their lack of size could be exposed against a more physically imposing opponent. Their 18-point loss to Purdue in November is the proof of concept for that concern.
But here’s the thing — Texas Tech without Toppin isn’t Purdue. The Red Raiders are going to be chucking 3s, playing deliberately, and hoping Anderson and Atwell get hot. Akron’s 3-point defense is a problem, but the Zips defend the paint well and force turnovers at a high rate, which neutralizes a lot of what a guard-heavy Texas Tech team wants to do in the half court. Glass slipper season is officially open, and Akron has the shooting to make some noise.
Estimated Score: TBD
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