Tonight we have a smaller than usual College Hoops slate on tap with eight games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Boston University at Merrimack (-4.5, 127)

Boston University (5-5) has won four of their last five games and just crushed Thomas College 113-75. Similarly, Merrimack (4-6) has won three in a row and just dismissed Niagara 80-62, covering as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with Merrimack listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on Boston University plus the points, steaming the Terriers down from +6 to +4.5. This movement is especially notable because this is an added/extra game (#306553/306554), which means the public can’t even find the matchup on their betting app and has no interest in sweating this unpopular matchup, yet we’ve seen a line move from sharp bettors regardless. At Circa, Boston University is receiving 67% of spread bets and 99% of spread dollars, further evidence of wiseguys in Vegas scooping up the Terriers plus the points. Boston University has several offensive advantages, including the superior offensive efficiency (263rd vs 294th), effective field goal percentage (50% vs 46%), offensive rebound percentage (32% vs 22%) and three-point shooting (34% vs 29%). The Terriers are also a “dog who can score system match (71 PPG compared to 63 PPG for Merrimack), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering.

8 p.m. ET: Indiana at Nebraska (-4, 155)

Indiana (8-2) has won four straight and just took down Minnesota 82-67, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Nebraska (6-2) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Michigan State 89-52 and failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 55% of spread bets are taking the points with Indiana. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Nebraska -2.5 to -4. Some shops are even up to -4.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Nebraska, as the line is moving toward the Cornhuskers despite being the unpopular play in the most heavily bet game of the night. Nebraska has buy-low value as a favorite off a blowout loss against a sell-high trendy dog on a winning streak. The Cornhuskers also have a two-day rest advantage, having last played on December 7th compared to Indiana last playing on December 9th. Nebraska is 5-0 at home. On the other hand, this is the first true road game for Indiana. Those looking to follow the sharp contrarian Nebraska move but wary of laying points that may not cover the spread could instead elect to play the Cornhuskers on the moneyline at -185. Nebraska has the better defensive efficiency (33rd vs 51st) and takes better care of the ball (65th in fewest turnovers per game compared to 286th for Indiana). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 153 to 155. The over is receiving 58% of bets and 74% of dollars at DraftKings and 80% of bets and 98% of dollars at Circa, both “low bets, higher dollars” sharp splits.

9 p.m. ET: Weber State (-3.5, 143.5) at Utah Tech

Weber State (4-6) has lost two in a row and just fell to North Dakota 80-75, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Utah Tech (2-9) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by Utah State 92-62, failing to cover as 24.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Weber State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and have laid the points with Weber State, driving the road favorite up from -2.5 to -3.5. This would qualify as a “low bet, obscure sharp line move” as the game isn’t garnering much interest from the betting public but has taken in notable line movement from respected bettors. At Circa, Weber State is taking in 75% of spread bets but a whopping 99% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potential close game could also entertain Weber State on the moneyline at -155. Weber State has several statistical advantages over Utah Tech, including the better offensive efficiency (198th vs 293rd), defensive efficiency (246th vs 274th), field goal percentage (45% vs 40%), three-point shooting (31% vs 28%) and free-throw shooting (71% vs 66%). Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total up from 142.5 to 143.5. The over is receiving 54% of bets but 71% of dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of the sharper bettors banking on a higher scoring game.

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