Today we wrap up the work week with a smaller than usual 16 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Saint Peter’s (-2.5, 147.5) at Sacred Heart
Saint Peter’s (14-8) has won three of their last four and just edged Siena 70-65, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Sacred Heart (10-16) has dropped three in a row and just fell to Manhattan 80-68, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Saint Peter’s listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on the Peacocks laying short chalk, driving Saint Peter’s up from -1.5 to -2.5.
This line move is especially notable considering this is a tiny, overlooked matchup with a low ticket count. In other words, the public has little to no interest in betting this game. However, based on the line move we can infer that wiseguys have taken a keen interest and sided with the road chalk.
Ken Pom has Saint Peter’s winning by two points (75-73). He also has the Peacocks ranked far higher (235th vs 297th).
As a result, many bettors have looked to mitigate some risk and back Saint Peter’s on the moneyline (-135) instead of laying the points.
At DraftKings, Saint Peter’s is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a straight up Peacocks victory.
Saint Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency (183rd vs 332nd), offensive rebound percentage (17th vs 244th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (63rd vs 317th) and force more turnovers on defense (21st vs 279th).
Saint Peter’s is 11-3 in conference play. Sacred Heart is 6-9.
7 p.m. ET: George Mason at George Washington (-2.5, 148.5)
George Mason (21-4) has dropped two of their last three and just came up short against Richmond 82-70, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, George Washington (14-11) just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 75-70 win over Rhode Island but failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with George Washington listed as a 2-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is George Washington favored if George Mason has a far better won-loss record?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with George Mason.
However, despite the public leaning toward George Mason we’ve seen the line creep up further toward George Washington -2 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Revolutionaries at home.
At DraftKings, George Washington is receiving 45% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, George Washington is taking in only 25% of spread bets but a whopping 71% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home chalk.
Ken Pom has George Washington winning by three points (77-74). He also has the Revolutionaries ranked slightly higher (82nd vs 84th).
With this in mind, bettors looking to gain some added protection may prefer a George Washington moneyline play at -140.
At DraftKings, George Washington is receiving 48% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of smart money backing the home team to earn a straight up victory.
George Washington has the better offensive efficiency (56th vs 102nd), effective field goal percentage (48th vs 93rd), three-point shooting (84th vs 224th) and free-throw shooting (153rd vs 203rd).
This is also a revenge spot for the Revolutionaries as they lost to the Patriots on the road 69-64 back in late January.
8 p.m. ET: Michigan State (-2.5, 147.5) at Wisconsin
Michigan State (20-4, ranked 10th) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 85-82 overtime win over Illinois, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (17-7) has won three of their last four and, ironically enough, just took down Illinois 92-90 in overtime, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with Michigan State, who has the better won-loss record and ranking.
This lopsided support pushed Michigan State up from -1.5 to -2.5.
However, now that the line has moved up a full point we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Wisconsin as an inflated dog, with the Badgers being juiced up +2.5 (-115 or -120).
Wisconsin is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Badgers are only receiving 27% of spread bets at DraftKings (but 35% of spread dollars) in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night on FOX.
At Circa, the Badgers are taking in 58% of spread bets and a whopping 96% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split signaling heavy sharp money from the wiseguys in Vegas in favor of Wisconsin plus the points.
Wisconsin has buy-low value as an unpopular unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked and trendy opponent.
Wisconsin has the better offensive efficiency (38th vs 43rd), free-throw shooting (14th vs 88th) and does a far better job of not turning it over on offense (8th vs 230th).
