Today the work week comes to a close with a 10-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6 p.m. ET: Ohio at Akron (-2.5, 161)

Ohio (10-6) has won six straight games and just took down Ball State 86-71, covering as 9-point home favorites. Similarly, Akron (11-5) has won four in a row and just beat Toledo 85-78 but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites.

This line opened with Akron listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is backing the home team, as 66% of spread bets at DraftKings and 59% of spread bets at Circa are laying the points with the Zips. However, despite receiving roughly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Akron remain stagnant at -2.5. Some shops have even dipped to -2 throughout the day. This signals a sharp line freeze and some brief reverse line movement on Ohio, as the line has stayed the same or moved in favor of the unpopular road dog.

At DraftKings, Ohio is receiving 34% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars. At Circa, Ohio is taking in 41% of spread bets but 56% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog Bobcats.

Ohio has the better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 52%) and takes better care of the ball (91st in turnovers compared to 145th for Akron). Ohio is also a “dog who can score” system match (81 PPG), thereby keeping pace or possibly backdoor covering. Short road conference dogs getting 4-points or less are 94-72 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season.

7 p.m. ET: VCU (-2, 142.5) at St. Joseph’s

VCU (13-4) has won three in a row and just dismissed Saint Louis 78-62, covering as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, St. Joseph’s (11-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 93-57 blowout win over Loyola Chicago, easily covering as 5-point home favorites.

This line opened with VCU listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is too short and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with VCU. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen VCU fall from -2.5 to -2. Some shops have even touched -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on St. Joseph’s, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, St. Joseph’s is only receiving 42% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the home dog plus the points. Ken Pom has VCU winning by two points (71-69), which provides a slight edge on St. Joseph’s if you are able to shop around and find a book offering +2.5 (-120).

St. Joseph’s has the superior offensive efficiency (54% vs 52%), three-point shooting (35% vs 32%) and free-throw shooting (74% vs 71%). The Hawks also enjoy a rest advantage, as St. Joseph’s last played on January 11th while VCU last played on January 14th. St. Joseph’s is 7-3 at home. VCU is 1-2 on the road. Short home conference dogs +4 or less in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor are 31-20 ATS (61%) with a 15% ROI this season.

11 p.m. ET: Boise State at New Mexico (-3.5, 151.5)

Boise State (13-5) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games but just crushed Wyoming 96-55, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, New Mexico (14-4) just saw their seven-game win streak come to an end, falling to San Jose State 71-70 and losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward the home team, with 60% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the chalk with New Mexico. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen New Mexico remain stagnant at -3.5. Some books briefly rose to New Mexico -4 then immediately came back down to -3.5. A few other shops fell to as low as -3 before rising back up to -3.5. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Boise State as the line has barely budged off the opener despite the Broncos being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Boise State is receiving 40% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has New Mexico winning by two points (78-76), which provides actionable value on Boise State +3.5.

Boise State has the better offensive efficiency (29th vs 95th), effective field goal percentage (54% vs 50%) and offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 32%), as well as a sizable edge at the free throw line (78% vs 68%). Boise State is only giving up 66 PPG compared to New Mexico allowing 73 PPG. Short road conference dogs getting 4-points or less, like the Broncos here, are 94-72 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season.

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