Today the road to March Madness continues with nearly 40 College Basketball Conference Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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2 p.m. ET: Grambling vs Alabama State (-2.5, 127.5)

This is the SWAC tournament semifinals.

Grambling (12-21) is the 8-seed and just outlasted Southern 65-62 in overtime in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 6-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Alabama State (17-15) is the 5-seed and just took down Texas Southern 84-79 in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 1-point neutral site dogs.

This line opened with Alabama State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with the chalk, as Alabama State is being juiced up -2.5 (-115). This signals liability on the Hornets and a possible move up to -3.

At DraftKings, Alabama State is receiving 75% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-sided support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. This is also a tiny added/extra game, which means the public is largely overlooking this matchup while wiseguys have taken a keen interest and position.

Ken Pom has Alabama State winning by three points (68-65). He also has the Hornets ranked higher (276th vs 321st).

Many pros have looked to gain some added protection by playing Alabama State on the moneyline (-145). At DraftKings, the Hornets are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing Alabama State win straight up.

Alabama State has the better offensive efficiency (255th vs 346th), offensive rebound percentage (28% vs 26%) and takes better care of the ball (7th in turnover percentage vs 309th). Alabama also has the better scoring offense (74 PPG vs 67 PPG) and grabs more rebounds per game (36 vs 34).

The Hornets enjoy a rest advantage, as Grambling is playing their third game in four days while Alabama State is playing their second game in four days.

3 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic (-3.5, 146.5) vs Tulane

This is the AAC tournament quarterfinals.

Florida Atlantic (18-14) is the 5-seed and just edged Charlotte 64-59 in the second round but failed to cover as 10-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Tulane (18-13) is the 4-seed and coming off a bye. The Green Wave just beat UAB 85-68 in their final regular season game, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Florida Atlantic listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 61% of spread bets are taking the points with Tulane.

However, despite a majority of bets backing Tulane we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Florida Atlantic -3 to -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Owls, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Florida Atlantic is taking in 39% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.

Ken Pom has Florida Atlantic winning by three points (77-74). He also has the Owls ranked higher (109th vs 148th). For those looking to mitigate some risk in the event a close game, the Owls might be worth a look on the moneyline (-160) instead of laying the points.

Florida Atlantic has the better offensive efficiency (85th vs 149th), effective field goal percentage (54% vs 52%), offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 27%) and three-point shooting (35% vs 34%). The Owls also have the better scoring offense (79 PPG vs 75 PPG) and grab more rebounds per game (37 vs 35).

5 p.m. ET: George Washington vs George Mason (-3.5, 129.5)

This is the Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals.

George Washington (21-11) is the 7-seed and just edged Fordham 88-81 in the second round, covering as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, George Mason (24-7) is the 2-seed and coming off a bye. The Patriots just took down Richmond 64-60 in their final regular season game but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with George Mason listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on the Patriots laying short chalk, steaming George Mason up from -2 to -3.5.

At Circa, George Mason is receiving 83% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating heavy one-way support out in the desert.

Ken Pom has George Mason winning by three points (65-62). He also has the Patriots ranked higher (85th vs 105th).

Many pros have looked to gain some cushion by playing George Mason on the moneyline (-165). At DraftKings, the Patriots are taking in roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, furth evidence of lopsided action banking on a Patriots straight up victory.

George Mason has the better defensive efficiency (21st vs 94th) and three-point shooting (34% vs 31%). The Patriots limit their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (4th vs 54th). George Mason also has the better scoring defense (63 PPG allowed vs 67 PPG allowed).

The Patriots enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as George Washington is playing the second leg of a back-to-back while George Mason has been off since March 8th.

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