Today we kick off a new week with a 19-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5 p.m. ET: Columbia at Cornell (-2.5, 169.5)
Columbia (11-3) has won two straight and just crushed Division 3 Penn State Abington 106-51. Similarly, Cornell (7-6) has won two of their last three and just demolished Division 3 Alfred State 133-65.
This line opened with Cornell listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on Cornell laying short chalk at home, driving the Big Red up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Cornell is taking in 59% of spread bets and a whopping 86% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of the home team.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added cushion in the event of a tight game could elect to target Cornell on the moneyline at -135.
Cornell has a big edge offensively, averaging 94 PPG compared to 81 PPG for Columbia.
The Big Red have the better offensive efficiency (62nd vs 152nd), effective field goal percentage (9th vs 52nd), 3-point shooting (6th vs 18th) and take better care of the ball (156th in turnovers vs 322nd).
Cornell is 4-0 at home this season.
6:30 p.m. ET: Nebraska at Ohio State (-2.5, 155.5)
Nebraska (14-0, ranked 13th) is undefeated and just outlasted Michigan State 58-56 but failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (10-3) has won two in a row in and just took down Rutgers 80-73 but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home-court advantage, why is an unranked team favored over an undefeated ranked team?
The public says “the wrong team is favored” and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the Cornhuskers.
However, despite the public playing Nebraska we’ve seen this line move further toward Ohio State, with the Buckeyes creeping up from -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Ohio State, as the line has moved in their favor despite the public playing Nebraska.
Ohio State is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Buckeyes are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in the most heavily bet game of the night on FS1.
At DraftKings, Ohio State is taking in 34% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home chalk.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Ohio State on the moneyline at -155.
At DraftKings, Ohio State is receiving 33% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Buckeyes win.
Short favorites -4 or less with at least a half-point of line movement in their favor are 114-71 (62%) straight up with a 5% ROI this season.
Ohio State has the better offensive efficiency (23rd vs 46th), effective field goal percentage (17th vs 56th), offensive rebound percentage (130th vs 276th) and free-throw shooting (9th vs 106th).
6:30 p.m. ET: Alabama State at Arkansas Pine Bluff (-1.5, 161.5)
Alabama State (4-10) just snapped a seven game losing skid with a 89-69 win over Mississippi Valley State, covering as 13.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas Pine Bluff (4-10) has won three straight and just took down Alabama A&M 95-83, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Alabama State listed as high as a 2.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Arkansas Pine Bluff, steaming the Golden Lions from a 2.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the home team.
This line move is especially significant considering the fact this is a tiny “added/extra game” with a 6-digit rotation number. The public has little to no interest in this low-bet, unpopular matchup. However, based on the “obscure” sharp line move we can infer that pros have specifically target Arkansas Pine Bluff.
At Circa, the Golden Lions are receiving over 90% of spread bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in favor of the home team from the wiseguys in the desert.
Once again, those looking to play the “dog to fav” line move could elect to protect themselves by playing Pine Bluff on the moneyline at -120.
This is also a sneaky schedule edge for Pine Bluff, as they are playing their fourth straight home game while Alabama State is playing their eighth straight road game.
Pine Bluff is 3-0 at home. Alabama State is 2-9 on the road.
