Today we have a massive Saturday College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 150-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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2 p.m. ET: Houston (-2, 137.5) at Arizona

Houston (20-4, ranked 6th) has won three straight and just brushed aside Baylor 76-65, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arizona (17-7, ranked 13th) just saw their six-game win streak come to an end, falling to Kansas State 73-70 and losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Houston listed as low as a 1-point road favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Cougars laying short chalk, driving Houston up from -1 to -2. Several shops are creeping up to Houston -2.5. At DraftKings, the Cougars are receiving 72% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars. At Circa, Houston is receiving 68% of spread bets but 87% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Houston.

Ken Pom has Houston winning by two points (70-68). As a result, savvy bettors looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer a Cougars moneyline play at -125.

Houston has the better offensive efficiency (6th vs 18th) and defensive efficiency (4th vs 14th). The Cougars also have the superior offensive rebound percentage (39% vs 37%), three-point shooting (39% vs 32%) and take better care of the ball (17th in turnover percentage compared to 130th for Arizona). Houston is only allowing 57 PPG compared to Arizona giving up 70 PPG.

The Cougars also enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on February 10th compared to Arizona last playing on February 11th.

4 p.m. ET: Auburn at Alabama (-1.5, 172.5)

Auburn (22-2, ranked 1st) just rebounded from their second loss of the season by taking down Vanderbilt 80-68 and covering as 8.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (21-3, ranked 2nd) has won seven straight and just crushed Texas 103-80, cruising as 4.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Alabama listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with the short home chalk, juicing up Alabama -1.5 (-115) and even moved to Alabama -2 at some shops. At DraftKings, Alabama is receiving 59% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Sharps have specifically targeted the Crimson Tide to win straight up on the moneyline (-120). At DraftKings, Alabama is taking in 39% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian discrepancy.

Alabama has the superior scoring offense (91 PPG vs 85 PPG) and rebounding (44 RPG vs 38 RPG). When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite has won straight up roughly 70% of the time since 2021.

8 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Texas (-3, 157.5)

Kentucky (17-7, ranked 15th) has won two straight and just upset Tennessee 75-64, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Texas (15-10) has lost three in a row and just got rolled by Alabama 103-80, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Texas listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is an unranked team on a losing skid favored over the 15th ranked team in the country?

The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Kentucky. However, despite the public backing the Wildcats we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Texas -1.5 to -3 and even -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the contrarian favorite Longhorns.

At DraftKings, Texas is only receiving 32% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian discrepancy in one of the most heavily bet primetime games of the night. Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by targeting the Longhorns on the moneyline (-155), as they are only taking in 17% of moneyline bets but 50% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings.

The Longhorns have the better defensive efficiency (52nd vs 77th), free-throw percentage (75% vs 73%) and are better at forcing turnovers (177th vs 354th). Texas also has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite on a losing streak against a sell-high road dog off a big upset win.

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