Today March Madness continues with a pair of Elite 8 matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
2:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee vs Houston (-3, 125.5)
Tennessee (30-7) is the 2-seed and just brushed aside Kentucky 78-65 in the Sweet 16, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Houston (33-4) is the 1-seed and just edged Purdue 62-60 in the Sweet 16 but failed to cover as 8.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as high as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen Houston fall from -4.5 to -3. Many shops are even juicing up Tennessee +3 (-115) and a few others have even dipped down to +2.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have jumped on Tennessee plus the points.
Short dogs getting 3.5-points or less, like the Volunteers here, are 9-4 ATS (69%) with a 34% ROI this March Madness.
Ken Pom has Houston winning by two points (63-61), which provides an actionable edge on Tennessee at the current price (+3). Ken Pom also has these teams ranked closely, with Houston 3rd and Tennessee 5th.
Tennessee has the better effective field goal percentage (80th vs 102nd) and free-throw percentage (75% vs 74%).
In terms of the total, we’ve seen nothing but over steam across the market. The total opened as low as 121.5 and has now risen up to 125.5. Some shops are even up to 126.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 84% of bets and 81% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 87% of bets and a whopping 98% of dollars.
5:50 p.m. ET: Michigan State vs Auburn (-5.5, 147.5)
Michigan State (30-6) is the 2-seed and just held off Mississippi 73-70 but failed to cover as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Auburn (31-5) is the 1-seed and just dismissed Michigan 78-65, covering as 9-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Auburn listed as a 5-point neutral site favorite. Early on, we saw several shops fall from Auburn -5 to -4.5, signaling some respected action taking Michigan State plus the points. However, on gameday we are seeing sharp buyback in favor of the Tigers, with pros buying low on Auburn -4.5 and now steaming the Tigers back up to -5.5 across the market.
At DraftKings, Auburn is receiving 63% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, Auburn is taking in 53% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Tigers laying the points.
Ken Pom has Auburn winning by five points (76-71), which makes sense why pros hammered Auburn at the low water mark of -4.5.
Auburn has the better offensive efficiency (3rd vs 23rd), effective field goal percentage (29th vs 148th) and three-point shooting (55th vs 318th). The Tigers also take better care of the ball, ranking 7th in turnover percentage compared to 137th for the Spartans.
Wiseguys also seem to be expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has fallen from 150 to 147.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 41% of bets and 60% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 78% of bets and 90% of dollars.
Both teams are stingy on defense, as Michigan State ranks 5th in defensive efficiency and Auburn ranks 8th. Both teams also rank on the slower end in terms of pace, with the Spartans ranking 179th in possessions per game and the Tigers ranking 133rd.
