March Madness officially kicks off tonight with a pair of First Four matchups to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:40 p.m. ET: St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State (-3.5, 138.5)
This South Region First Four matchup pits a pair of 16-seeds, with the winner moving on to face 1-seed Auburn.
St. Francis (16-17) has won six straight games and just upset Central Connecticut 46-43 to win the Northeast Conference Tournament, winning outright as 11.5-point neutral site dogs. Similarly, Alabama State (19-15) has also won six straight and just upset Jackson State 60-56 to win the SWAC Tournament, winning outright as 3-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Alabama State listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. Early money laid the chalk with Alabama State, driving the Hornets up from -3 to -3.5. Several shops reached as high as Alabama State -4.5 before some St. Francis buyback hit the market and dropped the line back down to Alabama State -3.5.
At DraftKings, Alabama State is receiving 60% of spread bets and 57% of spread dollars. However, at Circa we’ve seeing St. Francis take in 45% of spread bets and a whopping 78% of spread dollars.
Ken Pom has Alabama State winning by two points (72-70), which provides actionable value on St. Francis at the current price (+3.5).
Sharps have also hit the under, driving the total down from as high as 142.5 to 138.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 55% of bets and 82% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 64% of bets and 76% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
First Four unders are 31-21 (60%) with a 15% ROI since their inception in 2011.
Both of these teams rank near the bottom in tempo, with St. Francis ranking 201st and Alabama State ranking 142nd in possessions per game. Both teams also rank near the bottom in offensive efficiency, with St. Francis ranking 299th and Alabama State 270th.
9:10 p.m. ET: North Carolina (-4.5, 142.5) vs San Diego State
This South Region First Round matchup features a pair of 11-seeds, with the winner moving on to face 6-seed Mississippi.
North Carolina (22-13) just fell to Duke 74-71 in the ACC Tournament semifinals but covered as 7-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, San Diego State (21-9) just lost to Boise State 62-52 in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps pounded North Carolina early, steaming the Tar Heels up from -3.5 to -4.5. We saw this line reach as high as North Carolina -5.5 before some San Diego State buyback took place and dropped the line back down to Tar Heels -4.5.
At DraftKings, North Carolina is receiving 66% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. However, Circa is showing 66% of spread bets but only 52% of spread dollars on the Tar Heels.
San Diego State has notable inflated line contrarian value, as the Aztecs are only taking in 34% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night. Ken Pom has North Carolina winning by just two points (73-71), which provides actionable value on the Aztecs at the current price (+4.5).
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 39% of bets and 47% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 63% of bets and a whopping 97% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Once again, First Four unders are 31-21 (60%) with a 15% ROI since their inception in 2011.
Both teams lean on their defense, with San Diego State ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and North Carolina ranking 53rd. The Aztecs also play at a slow pace, ranking 245th in possessions per game.
