NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, March 18:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals (-170, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The chase continues as Alexander Ovechkin needs just eight goals to pass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time mark of 894 career goals. Tonight’s victim is the Detroit Red Wings, whom Ovi has scored 25 goals in 37 games against. He also has nine goals in 16 games against projected starting goalie Petr Mrazek. The Capitals opened as a -200 home favorite, but with center Dylan Strome a game-time decision (illness) we have seen this line drop to -170 and the full-game total drop from 6.5 to 6. I have a slight lean to the Over 6, but I am not interested in playing either side at this point. Going to stick with my Ovechkin player props (best numbers at Bet365 for shots on goal and FanDuel for goals) and a couple on the Detroit side.
NHL Predictions: Alexander Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (+105) – 1 unit
Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG (+220) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin anytime goal (+105) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin third-period goal (+390) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin last goal of the game (+800) – ¼ unit
Lucas Raymond Over ½ assist (+122) – ¼ unit
Alex DeBrincat anytime goal (+200) – ¼ unit
Calgary Flames at New York Rangers (-245, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
With the confirmation that the Rangers will start Igor Shesterkin tonight against Calgary, New York went from a -210 home favorite to -245. The Flames are on the second half of a back-to-back after getting thumped 6-1 by the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Monday night. Dustin Wolf started Monday and was pulled after two periods, giving up five goals on 26 shots. Despite the numbers, this was not about Wolf’s poor play but more about a Flames team that couldn’t stay out of the penalty box. Toronto scored three times with the extra man to build a 5-1 lead. Dan Vladar replaced Wolf for the final period and is likely to get the start tonight. Calgary is 2-6 on the back end of back-to-backs and has scored two goals or fewer in all six losses. The Rangers’ Adam Fox has six assists in eight career games versus the Flames.
NHL Predictions: Flames TT under 2.5 (-138) – 1 unit
Adam Fox Over ½ assist (+100) – ¼ unit
Ottawa Senators (-138, 5.5) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
It’s arguably the game of the night, featuring two of the hottest teams in the NHL. Ottawa has won six straight and seven of its last eight games while the Canadiens have seven wins in their last 10 games (just one regulation loss). The Sens, though, will be looking for their first win of the season against the Canadiens. Montreal has taken both meetings this season against Ottawa and scored nine goals on 41 shots against Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark. I do like the Canadiens’ team total (Over 2.5 goals). Montreal has scored three goals or more in 11 of their last 14 games and, in addition to his struggles this season against the Canadiens, Ullmark has given up three or more goals in nine of his last 12 games.
The first-period Over 1.5 goals is also on my bingo card. It has cashed in both meetings between the teams this season as well as the last five Canadiens home games. For the season, Montreal is 20-13 to the first-period Over 1.5 goals on home ice. Montreal’s Cole Caufield has 10 goals in 12 games against Ottawa and four goals in five games against Ullmark. Lane Hutson continues to lead all rookies in assists and points this season. He has three assists in two games against the Senators.
I will go back to the well with a Tim Stutzle/Brady Tkachuk point prop parlay. Stutzle has 23 points in his last 18 games and Tkachuk has nine points in his last eight games. Claude Giroux has goals in back-to-back games and the ever-dangerous Shane Pinto has five goals in 10 games against the Habs and scored twice in four games against goalie Sam Montembeault. The newly acquired Dylan Cozens centers the second line and has a spot on the top power-play unit.
NHL Predictions: 1st-period Over 1.5 (-126) – 1 unit
Canadiens TT over 2.5 (-134) – 1 unit
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+160) – ¼ unit
Lane Hutson Over ½ assist (-111) – ¼ unit
Dylan Cozens Over ½ point (+110) – ¼ unit
Shane Pinto anytime goal (+400) – ¼ unit
Brady Tkachuk/Tim Stutzle Over ½ point and Caufield ATG (+280) – ¼ unit
St. Louis Blues (-115, 5.5) at Nashville Predators
8 p.m. ET
This is the first of three meetings over the next 10 days between these Central Division rivals. The Blues are one of four teams fighting for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference and need to come away with points against a Nashville team that sits 30th overall in a 32-team league. Nashville is coming off a 1-0 overtime loss on Saturday and has scored just seven goals in its last four games. The Blues, though, could be just what Nashville needs to jump-start its offense. The full-game Over has cashed in 12 of the last 13 meetings, including the Blues’ 7-4 win last December. With the Preds coming off a shutout, we have our system play of a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes. I’m targeting a lot of good player props as well.
The Blues’ Brayden Schenn has four goals in his last five games and has scored eight goals on 25 shots against Nashville goalie Juuse Saros. Jordan Kyrou has five career goals versus Saros and defenseman Justin Faulk has five assists in his last five games. Two Nashville players I will target tonight are Michael Bunting, who has four goals in five games against Blues starting goalie Jordan Binnington, and Luke Evangelista, who has four goals in five games against the Blues, including two in three games against Binnington.
NHL Predictions: Over 5.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Brayden Schenn anytime goal (+360) – ¼ unit
Justin Faulk over ½ assist (+230) – ¼ unit
Jordan Kyrou anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Michael Bunting anytime goal (+380) – ¼ unit
Luke Evangelista anytime goal (+420) – ¼ unit
