Today March Madness officially begins with 16 first round matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of NCAA Tournament matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:25 p.m. ET: Texas vs BYU (-2.5, 157.5)
Texas (19-14) is the 11-seed and just took down NC State 68-66 in the First Four, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, BYU (23-11) is the 6-seed and just came up short against Houston 73-66 in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinal but managed to cover as 9.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with BYU listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Cougars laying short chalk, driving BYU up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, BYU is receiving 67% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has BYU winning by three points (84-81). He also has the Cougars ranked higher (23rd vs 37th).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added protection by playing BYU on the moneyline at -135.
At Circa, BYU is taking in only 27% of moneyline bets but a whopping 78% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of wiseguys in the desert playing BYU to win straight up.
BYU has the better offensive efficiency (10th vs 18th), defensive efficiency (58th vs 94th), effective field goal percentage (52nd vs 75th) and force more turnovers on defense (187th vs 349th).
BYU also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Cougars last played on March 12th while Texas last played on March 17th.
7:35 p.m. ET: Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s (-3, 147.5)
Texas A&M (21-11) is the 10-seed and just got rolled by Oklahoma 83-63 in the second round of the SEC tournament, losing outright as 2-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s (27-5) is the 7-seed and just came up short against Santa Clara 76-71 in the WCC tournament semifinal, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Saint Mary’s listed as low as a 2-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning toward Texas A&M plus the points.
However, despite 56% of spread bets at DraftKings backing the Aggies we’ve seen this line move further toward Saint Mary’s -2 to -3, with some shops even touching -3.5.
Why would oddsmakers move to the line and hand out additional points to the public when they’re already backing Texas A&M to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Saint Mary’s, triggering sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Gaels.
At DraftKings. Saint Mary’s is taking in 44% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, Saint Mary’s is receiving 67% of spread bets and a hefty 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split on the Gaels.
Ken Pom has Saint Mary’s winning by four points (77-73). He also has the Gaels ranked higher (24th vs 39th).
As a result, bettors looking to gain an additional edge may prefer playing the Gaels on the moneyline at -155.
At DraftKings, Saint Mary’s is taking in 29% of moneyline bets but 50% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Gaels victory.
Saint Mary’s has the better offensive efficiency (40th vs 49th), defensive efficiency (20th vs 42nd), offensive rebound percentage (15th vs 117th), three-point shooting (12th vs 44th), free-throw shooting (1st vs 147th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (18th vs 144th).
The Gaels also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on March 9th while Texas A&M last played on March 12th.
9:45 p.m. ET: Saint Louis vs Georgia (-2.5, 168.5)
Saint Louis (28-5) is the 9-seed and just came up short against Dayton 70-69 in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinal, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (22-10) is the 8-seed and just fell to Ole Miss 76-72 in the second round of the SEC tournament, losing outright as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Bulldogs laying short chalk, pushing Georgia up from -1.5 to -2, with a few other books touching -2.5 and even briefly reaching -3. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has been on the side of Georgia minus the points.
At DraftKings, Georgia is receiving 47% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Ken Pom has Georgia winning by one point (86-85). He also has the Bulldogs ranked higher (32nd vs 40th).
With this in mind, pros may prefer to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Georgia on the moneyline at -140.
Georgia has the better offensive efficiency (14th vs 50th), offensive rebound percentage (48th vs 161st), free-throw shooting (66th vs 104th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (32nd vs 230th) and force more turnovers on defense (77th vs 217th).
The Bulldogs also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, having last played on March 12th while the Billikens last played on March 13th and 14th.
