Today the road to March Madness continues with nearly 50 College Basketball Conference Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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2:30 p.m. ET: Marquette (-2.5, 145.5) vs Xavier

This is the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.

Marquette (22-9, ranked 25th) is the 5-seed and has dropped two straight, falling to St. John’s 86-84 in overtime in their final regular season game and losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Xavier (21-10) is the 4-seed and has won seven straight, beating Providence 76-68 in their regular season finale but failing to cover as 12.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Marquette listed as low as a 2-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite a roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Marquette move up from -2 to -2.5. Several shops are juicing up Marquette -2.5 (-115), indicating a possible further move up to -3. This indicates smart money backing the Golden Eagles.

At Circa, Marquette is receiving 56% of spread bets but a whopping 83% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Golden Eagles.

Ken Pom has Marquette winning by four points (75-71). Many pros have looked to gain some extra wiggle room by playing Marquette on the moneyline at -145. At Circa, the Golden Eagles are taking in 40% of moneyline bets but 85% of moneyline dollars, a massive smart money split.

Marquette has the better offensive efficiency (32nd vs 61st), defensive efficiency (21st vs 39th) and offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 25%). Marquette also does a better job of taking care of the ball (turnover percentage 8th vs 104th) and forcing turnovers on the defensive end (12th vs 122nd).

This is also a buy-low, sell-high play as Marquette has lost two straight while Xavier has won seven in a row.

5:30 p.m. ET: Boise State (-2.5, 134.5) vs San Diego State

This is the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals.

Boise State (22-9) is the 5-seed and just saw their five-game win streak come to an end, falling to Colorado State 83-73 in their regular season finale and losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Conversely, San Diego State (21-8) is the 4-seed and has won three of their last four, beating Nevada 80-61 in their final regular season game and covering as 6.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Boise State listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Aztecs plus the point.

However, despite a majority of tickets playing San Diego State, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Boise State -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Broncos, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

In an attempt to protect themselves from a close game that may not cover the spread, many pros have preferred to play Boise State on the moneyline at -135. At DraftKings, the Broncos are taking in 46% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Boise State victory.

Boise State has the better offensive efficiency (44th vs 103rd), effective field goal percentage (53% vs 51%), offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 30%) and free-throw shooting (78% vs 67%). The Broncos also do a far better job of limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (3rd vs 231st).

Boise State enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on March 7th while San Diego State last played on March 8th.

The Broncos are also a buy-low contrarian favorite off a loss against a sell-high trendy dog off a win.

9:30 p.m. ET: Kansas vs Arizona (-2.5, 150.5)

This is the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals.

Kansas (21-11) is the 6-seed and just outlasted UCF 98-94 in overtime in yesterday’s second round matchup but failed to cover as 10.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona (20-11) is the 3-seed and coming off a bye. The Wildcats just fell to Kansas 83-76 in their final regular season game, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Arizona listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Wildcats, steaming Arizona up from -1.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even approaching -3.

At DraftKings, Arizona is taking in 68% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.

Ken Pom has Arizona winning by one point (76-75). With this in mind, many savvy bettors have looked to drink some juice and protect themselves by playing the Wildcats on the moneyline at -140.

At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet split in favor of a Wildcats straight up victory.

Arizona has the better offensive efficiency (14th vs 47th), offensive rebound percentage (37% vs 30%) and free-throw percentage (78% vs 71%).

The Wildcats enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they haven’t played since March 8th while Kansas played yesterday and is now on the second night of a back-to-back. This is also an Arizona revenge play as they lost to Kansas their last time out.

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