Today we have a loaded College Hoops slate on tap with 35-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DrafKings and Circa Sports.

 

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9 p.m. ET: Missouri at Texas (-2.5, 147.5)

Missouri (15-3, ranked 22nd) has won four straight games and just crushed Arkansas 83-65, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (12-6) has lost four of their last five games and just fell to Florida 84-60, failing to cover as 11-point road dogs.

This line opened with Texas listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court, why is an unranked team on a losing skid favored over a ranked team on a winning streak? If it looks fishy or doesn’t make sense, there’s usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, driving Texas up from -2 to -2.5.

At DraftKings, the Longhorns are taking in 60% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to follow the sharp move but also wary of a close game that may not cover the spread could instead elect to play Texas on the moneyline (-135). At DraftKings, the Longhorns are receiving 52% of moneyline bets and a hefty 77% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing Texas to win straight up.

Ken Pom has Texas winning by two points (76-74). The Longhorns have the better defensive efficiency (48th vs 61st) and free-throw percentage (75% vs 72%). Texas has buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked favorite. Texas is 8-3 at home this season. Missouri is 1-2 on the road.

9 p.m. ET: Louisville at SMU (-1.5, 158.5)

Louisville (14-5, ranked 25th) has won eight games in a row and just dismissed Virginia 81-67 but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites. Similarly, SMU (14-4) has won three straight and just destroyed Miami 117-74, easily covering as 6.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with SMU listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the point with Louisville, who is hotter and has a better ranking. However, despite Louisville receiving 60% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward SMU -1 to -1.5. Some books have even touched -2. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on SMU, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. At Circa, which prides itself on accepting sharp action from pro bettors, SMU is receiving 60% of spread bets but over 90% of spread dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.

In an attempt to mitigate some risk, pros have specifically targeted SMU on the moneyline (-130). At DraftKings, SMU is receiving 34% of moneyline bets and 56% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has SMU winning by two points (79-77).

SMU has the better offensive efficiency (25th vs 32nd), effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%), offensive rebound percentage (38% vs 34%) and three-point shooting (39% vs 31%). SMU is averaging 85 PPG compared to 78 PPG for Louisville. SMU has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent. SMU is 8-2 at home this season.

9:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at UCLA (-3.5, 141.5)

Wisconsin (15-3, ranked 18th) has won seven straight games and just beat USC 84-69, easily winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, UCLA (12-6) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 95-70 blowout win over Iowa, cruising as 6-point home favorites.

This line opened with UCLA listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Wisconsin. However, despite the Badgers receiving 69% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line move further in favor of UCLA -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even creeping up to -4. Why would the oddsmakers hand out an additional point to the public when they’re already playing Wisconsin to begin with? Because pro money has sided with the contrarian home favorite, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of UCLA.

At DraftKings, UCLA is only taking in 31% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Bruins are receiving 50% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of UCLA. Those interested in following the sharp move but also looking for some added security could instead play the Bruins on the moneyline at -175. Ken Pom has UCLA winning by one point (72-71).

UCLA has the superior defensive efficiency (12th vs 46th) and offensive rebound percentage (34% vs 29%). UCLA ranks 1st in the country in terms of forced turnover percentage (25%). Wisconsin ranks 278th (16%). The Bruins enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 17th while Wisconsin last played on January 18th. UCLA is 9-1 at home this season.

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