Today we have a loaded slate of College Hoops action on tap with roughly 30 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Toledo at Ohio (-3, 160)

Toledo (11-8) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just brushed aside Bowling Green 84-71, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio (11-8) just snapped a two-game losing skid with 61-59 win over Kent State, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Ohio listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and pounced on Ohio, steaming the Bobcats up from -2.5 to -3, with some shops even touching -3.5 at times. At DraftKings, Ohio is receiving 71% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars, signaling one-way Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Ken Pom has Ohio winning by five points (84-79). He also has Ohio ranked higher (172nd vs 202nd). Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potentially close game could elect to play Ohio on the moneyline (-165) instead of laying the points.

Ohio has the better defensive efficiency (211th vs 327th) and effective field goal percentage (53% vs 50%). Ohio is a perfect 8-0 at home this season. When two MAC teams play each other, the favorite is 30-12 (71%) straight up this season.

8 p.m. ET: Dayton (-1.5, 135.5) at St. Bonaventure

Dayton (14-6) has won three straight and just outlasted Saint Joseph’s 77-72, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, St. Bonaventure (15-6) has dropped five of their last six and just fell to VCU 75-61, failing to cover as 12.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Dayton listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have leaned toward the road chalk, as Dayton is being juiced up -1.5 (-115) and even reaching -2 at some shops. At DraftKings, Dayton is taking in 65% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. At Circa, Dayton is receiving 50% of spread bets but a hefty 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Flyers.

Those looking to follow the sharp Flyers move could protect themselves by playing Dayton on the moneyline at -130. When two Atlantic 10 teams play each other, the favorite is 35-19 (65%) this season.

Dayton has the better offensive efficiency (35th vs 125th), effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%) and three-point shooting (37% vs 33%). The Flyers also take better care of the ball, ranking 44th in turnover percentage compared to 103rd for the Bonnies. Dayton is 4-3 in conference play. St. Bonaventure is 3-5.

9 p.m. ET: Arizona State at Colorado (-2.5, 141)

Arizona State (11-8) has dropped five of their last six games and just fell to Iowa State 76-61, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Colorado (9-10) has lost eight in a row and just got rolled by Arizona 78-63, failing to cover as 14.5-point road dogs.

This game opened with Colorado listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Arizona State, who has the better won-loss record. However, despite 63% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Arizona State, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Colorado -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Colorado, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public playing Arizona State.

At DraftKings, Colorado is only taking in 37% of spread bets but a whopping 84% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the Buffaloes at home. Those looking to follow the sharp Buffs move but also protect themselves in the event of a close win that doesn’t cover the spread could elect to play Colorado on the moneyline (-135) instead.

Colorado has buy-low value as an unpopular home favorite on a losing streak. The Buffaloes have a notable edge at the free-throw line (76% vs 70%). Colorado is 8-4 at home. Arizona State is 1-4 on the road. When two teams from the Big 12 play each other, the favorite is 51-16 (76%) straight up this season.

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