The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 250-169 in their last 419 tries (+33.02 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+109 at PIT)

Trend: CHC is 18-35 (-14.55 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at SF)

Since the start of last season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 220-291 for -73.11 units (ROI: -14.3%) when not matched up against the same.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+101 at WSH)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 120-91 start for -0.25 units and an ROI of -0.6 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+109 at PIT), LA ANGELS (-105 vs TB)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-65 for -34.75 units and an ROI of -34.4%!
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+101 at WSH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 77-91 for +10.58 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-125 vs SD), COLORADO (+148 at ATH)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 31-13 for +0.73 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 133-161 for -12.99 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+109 at PIT), ATLANTA (-102 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+120 vs DET), HOUSTON (+104 at KC), LA ANGELS (-105 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (+104 at BAL), SEATTLE (+101 at WSH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 87-103 start for -8.96 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 38-49 for -9.76 units and an ROI of -11.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY METS (-119 vs ATL)
3-games – BALTIMORE (-125 vs SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 70-79 for +0.93 units.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-126 vs HOU)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2096-1988 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.18 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-106 vs STL), SEATTLE (+102 at WSH), HOUSTON (+104 at KC), BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,125-2,696 (44.1%) for -267.00 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-156 at CLE), TEXAS (-102 at BOS), LA DODGERS (-205 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (+119 at MIL)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 100-145 SU (-22.75 units, ROI: -9.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-106 vs STL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 223-257 SU but for +46.13 units (ROI: 9.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+148 at ATH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 191-156 (+13.18 units, ROI: 3.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+109 at PIT)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 250-169 in their last 419 tries (+33.02 units, ROI: 7.9%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+109 at PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +138 (+19 diff), MIAMI +109 (+17), LA ANGELS -105 (+17), TEXAS -102 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATHLETICS -180 (+43 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TB-LAA OVER 8 (+0.7), SEA-WSH OVER 9 (+0.6), STL-MIN OVER 9 (+0.5), LAD-CWS OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SD-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.8), AZ-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), HOU-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) MIAMI (35-35) at (952) PITTSBURGH (35-35)
Trend: Over the total is 20-6-3 (+13.40 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 9)

(953) ATLANTA (45-24) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (31-38)
Trend: Over the total is 23-11-2 (+10.90 units) in ATL road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 8-11 (-7.59 units) when he starts vs NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-119 vs ATL)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (37-32) at (958) MILWAUKEE (42-25)
Trend: PHI is 3-9 (-8.17 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at MIL)
Trend: PHI is 15-29 (-12.30 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+128 at MIL)

(959) CHICAGO-NL (36-34) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (28-42)
Trend: CHC is 18-35 (-14.55 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at SF)

(961) NEW YORK-AL (41-27) at (962) TORONTO (34-36)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 15-19 (-11.23 units) when he starts vs AL East foes in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-106 vs NYY)

(963) DETROIT (29-41) at (964) CLEVELAND (38-33)
Trend: CLE is 19-9 (+6.01 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs DET)

(965) TEXAS (34-35) at (966) BOSTON (28-39)
Trend: TEX is 15-23 (-11.02 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at BOS)

(969) TAMPA BAY (40-26) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (28-42)
Trend: TB is 24-13 (+9.52 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 at LAA)

(973) SAN DIEGO (35-33) at (974) BALTIMORE (34-37)
Trend: SD is 16-5 (+10.53 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+104 at BAL)
Trend: Over the total is 20-10-2 (+9.00 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-BAL (o/u at 10)

(975) SEATTLE (37-34) at (976) WASHINGTON (35-35)
Trend: Luis Castillo’s teams are 5-14 (-8.80 units) when he starts as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+101 at WSH)
Trend: Over the total is 22-9-2 (+12.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-WSH (o/u at 9)

(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (44-26) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (37-31)
Trend: CWS is 23-11 (+13.90 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 vs LAD)

(979) COLORADO (26-44) at (980) ATHLETICS (34-35)
Trend: COL is 13-35 (-12.90 units) on the road last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+148 at ATH)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Favorites are just 31-47 (39.7%, -35.68 units) in the last 78 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -45.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-114 at TOR)

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Home teams are 23-11 (67.6%, +8.98 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 26.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-126 vs HOU), MILWAUKEE (-144 vs PHI), ATHLETICS (-180 vs COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-205 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-114 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+104 at BAL), WASHINGTON (-123 vs SEA), LA DODGERS (-205 at CWS), ATHLETICS (-180 vs COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-123 vs SEA), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-ATH (o/u at 14)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, June 16)

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