The road to March Madness continues today with nearly two dozen Conference Tournament College Basketball games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: Colorado vs TCU (-2.5, 134)
This is the first round of the Big 12 tournament.
Colorado (12-19) is the 16-seed and has dropped three of their last four games. Meanwhile, TCU (16-15) is the 9-seed and has lost four of their last five. These teams just played each other three days ago in their respective regular season finales. Colorado won 76-56, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with TCU listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to be banking on a TCU bounce-back revenge play, as the Horned Frogs have moved from -1.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching up toward -3.
At DraftKings, TCU is receiving 81% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars. At Circa, TCU is raking in 82% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Horned Frogs.
Ken Pom has TCU winning by one point (67-66). As a result, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing TCU on the moneyline at -150. At DraftKings, TCU is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, TCU is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars.
TCU has the better defensive efficiency (32nd vs 55th), offensive rebound percentage (32% vs 29%) and takes better care of the ball (185th in turnovers vs 351st). TCU is also better at forcing turnovers (63rd vs 266th).
TCU also has buy-low value as a short favorite off a blowout loss to the same opponent.
6:30 p.m. ET: Sam Houston vs UTEP (-2.5, 146.5)
This is the first round of the Conference USA tournament.
Sam Houston (13-18) is the 9-seed and has won two in a row, beating New Mexico State 76-69 in their regular season finale and covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, UTEP (17-14) is the 8-seed and has lost seven straight, falling to Louisiana Tech 76-58 in their final regular season game and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening UTEP a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on UTEP, driving the Miners up from pick/-1 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, UTEP is receiving 59% of spread bets and a whopping 80% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Miners are taking in 75% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Miners.
Ken Pom has UTEP winning by one point (76-75). With this in mind, many sharps have elected to drink some juice and protect themselves by playing the Miners on the moneyline at -145. At DraftKings, UTEP is receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, UTEP is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way support in favor of a Miners straight up victory.
UTEP has the better defensive efficiency (129th vs 264th) and takes better care of the ball (145th in turnovers vs 253rd). UTEP also does a better job of forcing turnovers (10th vs 174th) and ranks 6th in the country in steals compared to 280th for Sam Houston.
UTEP has buy-low value as a short favorite on a prolonged losing streak against a sell-high dog on a winning streak. This is also a revenge play for the Miners, who fell to the Bearkats 89-87 five days ago.
7 p.m. ET: Youngstown State vs Robert Morris (-3.5, 136.5)
This is the Horizon League tournament championship game.
Youngstown State (21-12) is the 4-seed and just upset Cleveland State 56-54 in last night’s semifinal, winning outright as 3-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Robert Morris (25-8) is the 1-seed and just edged Oakland 79-76 in last night’s semifinal but failed to cover as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Robert Morris listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with the chalk, as we’ve seen Robert Morris get juiced up -3.5 (-115) and even touch -4 at some shops.
At DraftKings, Robert Morris is taking in 60% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Robert Morris winning by three points (72-69). As a result, many pros have looked to play Robert Morris on the moneyline (-180) instead of laying the points. At Circa, Robert Morris is receiving 60% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in Vegas playing the Colonials to win straight up.
Robert Morris has the better offensive efficiency (195th vs 264) and defensive efficiency (122nd vs 126th). Robert Morris also has the better offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 29%) and three-point shooting (34% vs 31%). In addition, the Colonials force more turnovers (73rd vs 106th) and limit their opponents to fewer offensive rebounds (111th vs 245th).