Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 30 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky at Marshall (-1.5, 163.5)
Western Kentucky (6-2) has won two in a row and just outlasted Evansville 80-79 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Marshall (5-4) has dropped three in a row and just came up short against Ohio 88-81, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with a few shops also opening Western Kentucky a short 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Marshall, driving steaming the Thundering Herd up to a 1.5-point home favorite.
At DraftKings, Marshall is receiving 47% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.
Marshall has buy-low value as a fishy home favorite on a losing streak against a sell-high trendy road dog on a winning streak.
Ken Pom has Marshall winning by one point (80-79).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing Marshall on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, the Thundering Herd are taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 63% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of respected smart money backing Marshall to earn a straight up victory.
Marshall has the better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 49%), three-point shooting (36% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (77% vs 73%).
9 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Nebraska (-1.5, 158.5)
Wisconsin (7-2) has won two straight and just crushed Marquette 96-76, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Nebraska (9-0, ranked 23rd) is undefeated and just took down Creighton 71-50, covering as 5.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Nebraska, flipping the Cornhuskers from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. Some books have even ticked up to Nebraska -2.
At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 67% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating heavy Pro and Joe action out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Nebraska winning by one point (80-79).
Those looking to back Nebraska but also gain some cushion in the event of a close game could elect to play Nebraska on the moneyline at -135.
Short favorites -4 or less with at least a half point of line movement in their direction are 73-46 straight up (61%) with a 3.5% ROI this season. All favorites with at least 2-points of line movement in their favor are 185-43 straight up (81%) with a 2% ROI this season.
Nebraska has the better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 54%), defensive efficiency (37th vs 44th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (46% vs 51%).
10 p.m. ET: Fresno State (-1.5, 159.5) at Cal State Northridge
Fresno State (6-4) has dropped two in a row and just got rolled by Arkansas 82-58, failing to cover as 19.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Cal State Northridge (4-5) has lost three of their last four and just fell to Cal Irvine 85-71, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cal State Northridge listed as a 2-point home favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle with roughly 50% of spread bets on both sides.
However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen Fresno State flip from a 2-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move, we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing Fresno State.
In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Bulldogs.
Ken Pom has Fresno State winning by two points (78-76). He also has Fresno State ranked higher (166th vs 251st).
Pros have also looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Bulldogs on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Bulldogs are receiving 58% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro action playing Fresno State to win straight up.
Fresno State has the better offensive efficiency (230th vs 247th), defensive efficiency (135th vs 241st), effective field goal percentage (51% vs 47%) and does a better job at forcing turnovers on defense (37th vs 300th).
