Today we have a loaded midweek College Basketball slate on tap with 55 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: George Mason at St. Joseph’s (-1.5, 135.5)
George Mason (21-6) has dropped four of their last five and just fell to Dayton 82-67, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, St. Joseph’s (17-10) has won two straight and just brushed aside Loyola Chicago 75-61, covering as 9.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with George Mason listed as a 1-point road favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen St. Joseph’s flip from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite, with some shops inching up as high as -2 or even -2.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that the smart money is siding with St. Joseph’s at home.
At Circa, St. Joseph’s is receiving 50% of spread bets but 78% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Hawks on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, St. Joseph’s is taking in 48% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro action banking on a straight up Hawks victory on their home court.
St. Joseph’s has the better defensive efficiency (72nd vs 110th), free-throw shooting (96th vs 195th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (49th vs 91st).
St. Joseph’s is 11-3 at home. George Mason is 4-4 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost to the Patriots 60-52 on the road back in early February.
9 p.m. ET: LSU at Ole Miss (-2.5, 148.5)
LSU (14-13) has lost eight of their last nine and just came up short against Alabama 90-83 but managed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Ole Miss (11-16) has dropped nine in a row and just got routed by Florida 94-75, failing to cover as 13.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when applying home court advantage, why is a well-below .500 team favored over an above .500 team?
Sharps have embraced the fishy line and laid the wood with Ole Miss, pushing the Rebels up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Ole Miss is taking in 72% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. At Circa, Ole Miss is receiving 50% of spread bets and over 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
In an attempt to gain some added cushion, many pros have targeted the Rebels on the moneyline at -140.
At DraftKings, Ole Miss is reveiving 63% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split and further evidence of wiseguy action backing the Rebels to earn a straight up victory.
Ole Miss has the better defensive efficiency (80th vs 104th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (26th vs 71st) and limit their opponents to a better three-point percentage (175th vs 276th).
Ole Miss is 7-6 at home. LSU is 2-6 on the road.
11 p.m. ET: Utah State at San Diego State (-1.5, 146.5)
Utah State (23-4) just saw their eight-game win streak come to an end, falling to Nevada 80-77 and losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, San Diego State (18-8) has dropped two in a row and just got tripped up by Colorado State 83-74, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
The public is leaning toward Utah State, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite 54% of spread bets at DraftKings backing the Aggies we’ve actually seen this line creep up toward San Diego State, driving the Aztecs up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point home favorite.
This signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line move on San Diego State, as the line has moved in their favor despite the majority of tickets backing Utah State.
At Circa, San Diego State is taking in 80% of spread bets and over 90% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Many sharps have looked to gain some added cushion by targeting the Aztecs on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, San Diego State is receiving 52% of moneyline bets and a whopping 75% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money banking on a straight up Aztecs win on their home court.
When two Mountain West teams face off in conference play, the home favorite is 44-6 (88%) straight up with an 8% ROI this season.
San Diego State has the better defensive efficiency (17th vs 37th) and free-throw percentage (62nd vs 241st).
This is also a revenge play for the Aztecs, who lost to the Aggies 71-66 on the road back in late January.
