Tuley’s Takes – College Basketball Mid-Majors Conference Tournaments:

We’re always excited here in the Tuley’s Takes home office when the calendar turns to March Madness, especially for the men’s college basketball conference tournaments. As I’ve written every year for a long time here at VSiN and back to my days at the Daily Racing Form and ESPN, the conference tourneys offer more and better betting opportunities than the actual NCAA Tournament (and I’m not afraid to lose my “gambling card” for saying that out loud). We have hundreds of games these two weeks leading up to the Big Dance, and then just 32 games in the NCAA tourney’s Thursday and Friday’s first-round games and just 16 on that opening Saturday and Sunday.

The most success I’ve had over the years in the conference tournaments has been fading teams that are already locks for the NCAA Tournament when they’re playing “bubble teams” or even sometimes teams that are even lower seeds in their own conference and whose only shot is to get the automatic bid by winning the postseason tourney. While everyone would like to win a conference tourney title, it’s not the No. 1 priority for the very top teams; they’re already looking ahead to the Big Dance. If they survive and advance toward a conference title, that’s OK, but they’re not devastated if they lose, as they know they have bigger fish to fry.

 

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Meanwhile, the underdogs in these games are highly motivated. Think back over the years to all the conference tourney upsets where a lower-ranked team upset a team that was a lock for the NCAAs, and TV talking-heads said things like “nobody saw that coming.” Well, there’s a good chance that me and my followers did! And even if these teams don’t pull the upset to move on, they’re often good bets to keep the game close and cover the spread.

Unfortunately, we don’t often have playable dogs in the early rounds of the smaller conference tournaments this first week as most are one-bid leagues, so it’s harder for me to fade the top seeds who need to win the automatic bids anyway (though upsets do happen this week, too).

Also, I’m probably staying away from Conference USA as it’ll probably come down to Jacksonville State and Liberty, and if one of those doesn’t make the title game, the other will still need to wrap up the automatic bid. The same goes for the West Coast Conference, which should come down to Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s (which swept the regular-season meetings this season), and no team looks dangerous enough to take points against the top two in the WCC semifinals.

Let’s look at some of the other mid-majors, and I’ll return early next week with the major conferences when we have a better handle on how the brackets are taking shape and try to project specific matchups as the bigger conferences have a better chance for our live dogs to be getting points in earlier rounds.

Missouri Valley (March 6-9)

Bradley closed the regular season on a 6-1 run, but the Braves are living in Drake’s shadow in the “Arch Madness” tourney at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis. Drake should get an at-large bid even if failing to win the MVC tourney, so Bradley will be my play if getting points in the title game on Sunday, March 9 (the Braves will obviously be favored in the quarters and semis). Actually, most of my wagers in this conference tourney will be on the Unders in the individual games. One of my longtime ViewFromVegas Forum members, rdalert, has put us on the Unders in this league’s games in recent years (39-21, 65%, the last 10 MVC tourneys, according to my VSiN colleague Steve Makinen). The bad news is the oddsmakers might be catching on (shhh!!!) and could be shading the totals even lower, but I’m betting we still finish profitably (at least 6-5, hopefully 6-4-1 or 7-4 or better) with the Unders in the 11 tourney games. It’s probably best to bet the openers in case there’s a run on the Unders.

American Athletic (March 12-16)

North Texas is in the same boat as the aforementioned Bradley. Memphis is ranked No. 16 as of this writing and a lock to make the 68-team field regardless of how the Tigers do in the AAC tourney. North Texas has been coming on strong (on a 12-2 run heading into their game on Thursday, March 5). The Mean Green could be a live dog (though probably only vs. Memphis in the AAC title game on Selection Sunday, March 17, in Fort Worth, Texas), as they still need to win the conference tourney to get into the Big Dance.

Atlantic-10 (March 12-16)

The A-10 is still finishing out its regular season this weekend, but it looks like Virginia Commonwealth will hold on for the regular-season title and still make the NCAA tourney even if not winning the conference tourney. They could be a fadeable team, especially if senior guard Phillip Russell isn’t 100%. The A-10 is usually a multiple-bid league, so they should be safe while George Mason and Dayton will probably need deep runs to secure their spots, so I’d play either of them if they’re getting points. We’ll be monitoring other conference results because if more bids are stolen, those teams might need to win the A-10 to get in.

Mountain West (March 12-15)

This is always a competitive conference, though they then usually fall on their collective faces in the Big Dance. I might revisit this league next week with the major conferences since a lot can change between now and then, and I’ll have a better idea of how the bracket is shaping up. New Mexico is pretty much an NCAA lock even if making an early exit, along with probably Utah State and Boise State, though most bracketologists have them on the bubble. UNLV is down the list, but the Rebels are often dangerous with the MWC tourney played at home at the Thomas & Mack Center. My gameplan for now is to take UNLV and Boise State in any games in which they’re getting points, especially if against New Mexico or Utah State.

Big West (March 12-15)

If you believe the UC San Diego Tritons, the regular-season champs and a former Division II school, will earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament in its first year of eligibility even if it doesn’t win the conference tourney, they would be a great team to fade in the Big West semifinals or final. The problem is I don’t know which team(s) that would be and won’t know their opponent in next week’s Friday night semis until next Thursday night here in the Vegas suburb of Henderson. But we’ll be scouting those earlier-round games. The play might be on UC Irvine if facing UC San Diego in the title game to make this a two-bid league.

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