Tuley’s Takes – College Basketball Conference Tournaments:

As we wrote last week in our mid-majors preview, we love March Madness in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but even moreso with these conference tournaments leading up to the Big Dance.

We still have far more betting opportunities with more than 100 games during this Championship Week while we’ll just have 32 games in the NCAA tourney’s first-round games next Thursday and Friday’s first round games and just 16 on that Saturday and Sunday.

 

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As I also wrote last week, I’d had more success over the years in these conference tournaments – usually by fading teams that are already locks for the NCAA Tournament when they’re playing “bubble teams” or even sometimes teams that are even lower seeds in their own conference and whose only shot is to get the automatic bid by winning the postseason tourney – but we did even better by going 10-1 with our recommended Under plays in the Missouri Valley Conference (I even wrote I would have been happy going 6-5 or 7-4), though I did lose my pick on Bradley +4 vs. Drake in the MVC title game.

Regardless, we’re back to look for some live underdogs in the top-tier majors this week.

Good luck and enjoy the madness.

Big 12 (March 11-15)

The Big 12 has six locks with Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa State and Kansas, while West Virginia and Baylor are probably safe if they don’t lose their openers. While they might be tempting in their first games Wednesday, they’ll both be favored, so I’ll pass (and, like I said, probably securely in the field if they win so not looking to take them as dogs on Thursday against Houston and Texas Tech, respectively). 

But there is one underdog I do have my eyes on. Cincinnati did convincingly beat Oklahoma State 87-68 in Tuesday’s first-round game and is +8.5 on Wednesday vs. Iowa State, who they gave a tough game on the road Feb. 15 before falling 81-70, so I will take the Bearcats in the rematch (and possibly vs. BYU on Thursday if they pull the upset). I’m not as high on the other outsiders.

Tuley’s top take: Cincinnati

Atlantic Coast (March 11-15)

The once-mighty ACC also tipped off Tuesday but looks like just a four- or five-bid league this year. Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh and I would normally be trying to make a case for the Irish plus the points vs. North Carolina, but the Tar Heels still have some work to do (they were on the “First Four Out” line by Joe Lunardi as of late Tuesday afternoon). Usually I would be looking to back UNC if it advanced, but the Tar Heels would then face Wake Forest on Thursday and the Demon Deacons are actually behind them on Lunardi’s “Next Four Out, so I don’t see a playable dog in that section of the ACC bracket. 

In fact, the only play(s) I can project in this whole tourney would be SMU vs. Clemson in Thursday’s quarterfinals – and that’s obviously only if SMU takes care of business against Tuesday night’s Syracuse-Florida State winner on Wednesday and then if facing Louisville in Friday’s semifinals as the Mustangs probably need to get at least that far to have a chance to go dancing.

Tuley’s top take: SMU

Big East (March 12-15)

Similar to the ACC, the Big East looks like a four- or five-bid league with St. John’s, Creighton, UConn and Marquette considered locks, with Xavier and Villanova needing to make big tourney runs. I see myself playing both in at least their first games. Xavier is actually the Big East’s No. 4 seed, but it’s No. 5 Marquette that is more sure of heading to the Big Dance. I’ll take Xavier +2.5 vs. Marquette in their quarterfinal matchup on Thursday. 

I’m actually more excited to play Villanova, but the Wildcats have a little work to do as they need to get past Seton Hall on Wednesday before facing UConn on Thursday. While Nova isn’t as strong as recent years, they’re still NCAA “blue bloods” with the players to make a run. Besides, with UConn being the defending national champs, I don’t see the Huskies as motivated to win the conference title, so I love Villanova plus the points – and they were getting +8.5 the last time they met with UConn winning by seven. If Villanova gets hot, I’d probably also play the Wildcats in the semis on Friday night vs. Creighton as they would probably still need to win that game or at least a strong showing to earn an at-large bid.

Tuley’s top takes: Xavier and Villanova

Southeastern (March 12-16)

The SEC has a bunch of teams that are considered locks and projected to have about a dozen teams make the Big Dance, at least according to Joe Lunardi and other bracketologists. Some of those teams like Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Texas might need to win a conference tourney game or two to keep off the bubble (especially if some at-large bids are stolen in other conferences). 

But, for our purposes, I don’t see many potential plays as Arkansas is favored in its Wednesday first-round game while Oklahoma plays Georgia and Vanderbilt faces Texas in their SEC openers. Oklahoma needs its game more than Georgia and is a 3-point underdog, but with Georgia not a lock yet, I’m leery of fading the Bulldogs. If the Sooners advance, I might take them with the points vs. Kentucky on Thursday and likewise with the Vandy-Texas winner vs. Texas A&M.

Tuley’s top take: Oklahoma

Big Ten (March 12-16)

The Big 10 (or the Big 18 as I derisively call it as this Midwestern-born-and-raised boy is going to be an old man shaking my fists at the clouds about the overexpansion of the conference I grew up watching). Penn State and then Rutgers and Maryland were bad enough, now the hated Pac-12 teams (grrrr!!!). 

Anyway, the top eight seeds in the conference tourneys are locks. Of the lower seeds, Indiana has the best chance to punch its ticket but probably needs to win its first game (actually a second-round game vs. Oregon on Thursday). The Hoosiers are 2.5-point dogs, so that’s the one play I’m sure I’ll be making here. The other most likely play is Ohio State if the Buckeyes beat Iowa on Wednesday and then face Illinois on Thursday. 

The other regular-season also-rans (Rutgers, Minnesota, Northwestern, USC and Iowa) have to run the table and steal the Big Ten’s automatic bid, so I wouldn’t even consider them until later in the weekend and not holding my breath for any of them to make a deep run.

Tuley’s top takes: Indiana and Ohio State

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