Elite Eight Best Bets

Here in the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas, we love it when a plan comes together. It’s been a chalky NCAA Tournament, and we escaped with a 5-5 ATS record with our Best Bets here in the first two rounds last weekend. But we trusted the “dog-or-pass” process and were greatly rewarded with a 4-0 ATS mark in the Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday as underdogs went 5-3 SU & ATS (Unders went 6-2) and we nailed it with Clemson +7 upsetting Arizona 77-72 and Illinois +1.5 upsetting Iowa State 72-69 on Thursday night, plus capped it off with North Carolina State +6.5 and Under 155 in the Wolfpack’s 67-58 upset of Marquette on Friday night. That puts our overall “Tuley’s Takes” record at 9-5 ATS (64.3%) heading into our Elite Eight best bets on Saturday and Sunday.

I’m going to invoke the “pass” part of my “dog-or-pass” approach in Saturday’s first game (6:09 p.m. EDT/3:09 p.m. PDT) in the East Regional Final between Illinois and UConn. Illinois has been good to us (in more way than one, as I grew up there), including Thursday’s upset of Iowa State when it overcame the No. 1 defense of the Cyclones; however, UConn is just too good for me to fade as the Huskies have been dominant on both ends of the court at No. 1 in offensive efficiency at kenpom.com and No. 6 on defense. Illinois is tempting at +8.5, but I just have to stay away.

 

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So, without further ado, let’s look at the plays I do like.

Clemson +3.5 vs. Alabama (plus Under 164.5)

This is normally seen as a matchup of powerhouse football programs, but here we get it with a trip to the Final Four on the line. After underestimating Clemson at the start of the tournament (and I wasn’t alone as the No. 6-seeded Tigers closed as 2-point underdogs vs. No. 11 New Mexico despite being the higher seed. But they were impressive in their 77-56 victory and have carried that momentum with upsets of Baylor and Arizona. The latter busted some of my brackets, but at least I had Clemson with the points and the moneyline.

But all that aside, the Tigers deserve to be here and are a live dog. We all know Alabama can score in bunches (ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency at kenpom.com at 125.6 points per 100 possessions) and will push the pace as the No. 9 team in adjusted tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), but Clemson should be able to slow things down as it is No. 257 in adjusted tempo. That belief leads me to actually love the Under 164.5 better as I have this total being around 10 points too high. We’ll just be praying for no overtime on Easter Eve.

Elite Eight Best Bet(s): Clemson +3.5, Under 164.5

North Carolina State +6.5 vs. Duke

NC State is another team that has grown on me during this tournament, and we get the Wolfpack against their ACC rivals, so we like the familiarity of the two programs. Everyone knows that NC State won five games in five days to win the ACC Conference Tournament to get into the Big Dance. After losing to Duke 79-64 as 6-point underdogs on March 4, they were 11-point dogs on May 14 in the ACC tourney and pulled the 74-69 outright upset. This number is shorter, but for good reason, and we’re still willing to back the Pack again. Both these teams play at a relatively methodical pace (NC State is No. 148 in adjusted tempo at kenpom, while Duke is No. 254), so points will be at a premium in this game with the lowest Over/Under of the Elite Eight. That should help this to be a close game down to the closing seconds, and 6.5 points should be enough. While I say points will be at a premium, I’m passing on the Under in this one as the oddsmakers have actually set it even lower than I expected (it’s not an official play, but I lean to the Over 143).

Elite Eight Best Bet: North Carolina State +6.5

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