Tuley’s Takes on Friday’s NCAA Tournament First-Round Games:
We’re hoping that when these Friday games roll around, we’ll already be celebrating in the Tuley’s Takes home office from the dogs barking on Thursday’s opening day of the NCAA tournament’s first round. But, hey, even if Thursday was too chalky for our taste, we’ll still be using our “dog or pass” approach on Friday’s card (note: I only liked three dogs in my Thursday column here at VSiN.com and I like four on Friday, plus Akron +14 vs. Arizona. ( I would just call that a lean, though will probably still bet it myself, especially if the line climbs higher).
So, let’s get to it and pray that if our brackets get busted, it’s with some of these (hopefully) live dogs.
Lipscomb +15 vs. Iowa State
Friday, 1:30 p.m. ET
I’m a little surprised that Iowa State has been bet from -13.5 to -15, even though its first-round game is against relatively unknown Lipscomb. Everyone surely knows by now that the Cyclones’ point guard (assist leader and second-leading scorer) Keshon Gilbert is out for the entire tournament. I know they still have plenty of talent to get to the Sweet 16 and perhaps beyond, but I figured with everyone looking for live dogs (or vulnerable favorites) this time of year, more would be looking to fade Iowa State. But, hey, I’m willing to take the generous points. Along with 20-point-big-man Jacob Ognacevic, Lipscomb has the 3-point shooters they’ll need to stay in the game, though I’m probably not taking the Bisons (yes, they use the plural spelling) to win outright on the money line like I usually do with my NCAA dogs. Iowa State is 102nd in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com, while Lipscomb is even slower at No. 258. I see this as being lower-scoring, with both teams often using the full shot clock and Iowa State building a comfortable lead and relying on its Top 10 defense, but in no rush to win by margin.
Troy +11.5 vs. Kentucky
Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Kentucky is one of the blue-blood programs of NCAA basketball and has certainly had some great teams over the years. More often than not, the Wildcats’ modus operandi is that they have great athletes but are a bunch of individual stars who don’t play well as a team and come up short of expectations, especially during the John Calipari era (only one national title in 15 years despite having more pro prospects than any other school). This looks like another case in the first year under Mark Pope, as they shoot well from 3 and have tons of athleticism to get out on the fast break. The defense is lacking (No. 57 at kenpom.com when most top seeds in the Top 40) and gives Troy a chance to stay in this game and cover the double digits. Troy doesn’t shoot 3s very well, but I don’t think they have to if they just keep pounding the ball down low and hit the offensive boards for easy put-backs.
Oklahoma +5.5 vs. Connecticut
Friday, 9:25 p.m. ET
I know UConn is the two-time defending champs, so I understand why the Huskies have been bet from -4.5 to -5.5, but this team is a cut below those others. They’re seeded correctly, and I believe this line should be a lot closer to pick ’em. Regular readers of mine know that I often like games between two teams that are ranked low in Adjusted Tempo at kenpom (see Lipscomb-Iowa State above) as it shortens the game and makes points more of a premium and extra valuable for our dogs to cover. UConn fits that mold as the Huskies are No. 344 in Adjusted Tempo and would be content to grind out a win, but I’m actually looking for Oklahoma (No. 106 in AT) to try to run-and-gun and chuck up 3s to keep in this game. If they’re not hot throughout, we’re probably doomed, but otherwise, look out for the outright upset at +195 on the money line.
Liberty +7 vs. Oregon
Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET
I used to play a lot of the No. 12 seeds back in the day before everyone caught on to that trend. I never played them blindly, as I’ve always believed that you have to take each game individually and on its own merits. I’ve been even more selective in recent years after everyone jumped on the bandwagon, and the oddsmakers adjusted the lines where we don’t always get the same value we used to in these matchups. But I did play McNeese State vs. Clemson on Thursday and I’m adding Liberty vs. Oregon on Friday. The Flames have the guards in Kaden Metheny and Taelon Peter to match up with the Ducks and hit an impressive 39% from 3-point range. I certainly respect Oregon coach Dana Altman (who hasn’t lost a first-round game with the Ducks), but Liberty should be able to trade baskets throughout (especially with the 3-pointers) to be right there at the end with a chance to end that run. But I’ll be just as happy with just the cover.
