Tuley’s Takes on NCAA Tournament Championship Game:
Finally! It’s obviously been a tough Big Dance here in the Tuley’s Takes home office with our “dog or pass” approach, but we felt a little redeemed in Saturday’s Final Four.
First of all, I was glad that I invoked the “pass” option with Auburn +2.5 as I didn’t feel we were getting enough points, and the Tigers did come up short in their 79-73 loss to Florida, but we did cash with our Best Bet on Under 160. I wrote that I thought it should have been in the low 150s, and that’s right where it ended.
But the coup de grace was our Best Bet on Houston +5 against Duke in the nightcap. It didn’t play out exactly as planned as Duke led most of the game and looked like the Blue Devils would cover, but the Cougars stuck around led by their No. 1 ranked defense and held Duke without a field goal in the last 10.5 minutes and closed on a 9-0 run to pull the shocking 70-67 outright upset.
For those following along with our @ViewFromVegas betting recaps on X (can’t we go back to calling it Twitter?), favorites are still 49-13 straight-up (79%) and 34-28 against the spread (54.8%) with Unders sweeping the Final Four to improve to 36-25-1 (59%) entering Monday’s championship game in San Antonio.
Houston +1 vs. Florida (Over/Under 141)
Monday, 8:50 p.m. ET
With totals being so good to us through the tourney, I would love to make a case for the Under; however, the oddsmakers have certainly gone to school and opened the Over/Under at a low 142 on Saturday night after Houston’s win and the early bettors already bet it down to 141 by Sunday. The argument would have been that Houston, the No, 1 defensive team in the nation and No. 360 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom.com, would once again control the pace and keep this a relatively low-scoring game. But I just don’t see the value in it at the current number.
But that’s OK, as I knew all along that I would be on the underdog Cougars. And I mean that I knew that when handicapping this potential title game when filling out my brackets (which I can still win one plus some runner-up payoffs) and gave them out in the VSiN March Madness Betting Guide at +575.
Houston’s defense helps them match up with anyone, as we all saw in how they stayed close to Duke and pulled out the upset. Florida is obviously talented as well and the Gators earned their SEC conference tournament title and their spot in this championship game, but I still think we have the better overall team to cut down the nets.
No hedging for me. Good luck with however you play Monday’s title game.
