While the mainstream media concentrated per usual on the snubs in the NCAA Tournament field of 68 (West Virginia and Indiana) and bubble teams (North Carolina and Xavier) making the field, the betting markets got down to the business of updating future-book odds and posting first-round lines.
The selection committee chose Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed despite losing three of their last four games, but Circa oddsmakers installed ACC regular-season and conference champion Duke as the +325 favorite to cut down the net on April 7 in San Antonio with SEC champion Florida as the second betting choice at +350 ahead of Auburn at +400. The remaining No. 1 seed, Houston, is at +575.
DraftKings has Duke and Auburn as co-favorites at +350 with Florida at +380 and Houston at +600.
Two of the top four seeds are from the SEC and four of the top eight. That’s a nod to the overall strength of the SEC, which is sending an all-time record of 14 teams to the Big Dance. Of course, let’s not forget that conferences never had more than 12 teams (and far fewer than that) for the first half-century of NCAA basketball).
I also like to take an early look at the point spreads by seeds as it gives an overview of how oddsmakers’ opinions differ from the selection committee. It’s interesting to note that while eight higher-numbered seeds were favored over lower-numbered seeds last March, there are only two such cases in the opening lines this year: No. 12 Colorado State was -3.5 vs. No. 5 Memphis while No. 9 Baylor was -1 vs. No. 8 Mississippi State.
Back to the No. 1 seeds, Florida and Houston are both whopping 29-point favorites over Southern Illinois-Edwardsville and Norfolk State with Auburn and Duke needing to wait for the winners of the No. 16 play–in games in the First Four on Tuesday and Wednesday. Those big spreads are a return to when I first used to do this column back when I was at Daily Racing Form in the early 2000s and the No. 1 seeds were always favored in the upper 20s. Of course, that was back in the days when a No. 1 seed had never lost to the No. 16 and now it’s happened twice In recent years (Maryland-Baltimore County over Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue in 2023).
No. 2s used to be line in the low 20s, and Alabama is in that neighborhood at -23 vs. Robert Morris in the East Regional, with the other No. 2s being Tennessee -18.5 vs. Wofford, St. John’s also -18.5 vs. Nebraska-Omaha and Michigan State -18 vs. Bryant.
No. 3s used to be in the upper teens, but Wisconsin is this year’s biggest fave on this line at -16.5 vs. Montana with Texas Tech -16 vs. North Carolina-Wilmington, Iowa State -13.5 vs. Lipscomb and Kentucky only -11 vs. Troy.
That’s where the No. 4s used to reside, but this year it’s a wider range with Arizona -14 vs. Akron, Maryland -11 vs. Grand Canyon, Purdue -9 vs. High Point down to Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Lipscomb.
The No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups always get a lot of attention with all the outright upsets over the years, and as mentioned above, we do actually have No. 12 Colorado State -2.5 over No. 5 Memphis. The other 5-12 matchup receiving the most interest early is Michigan only between -2.5 and -3 vs. UC-San Diego despite the Wolverines winning the Big Ten conference title and being seeded worse than Maryland and Wisconsin despite beating them both the last two days. The other No. 5s are bigger favorites with Clemson -7.5 vs. McNeese State and Oregon -6.5 vs. Liberty.
Actually No. 11 seeds have fared better vs. No. 6 seeds in recent years (12-12 straight-up the last six NCAA tourneys) than the more talked-about No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchups (No. 5s actually lead 16-8 in that same timespan). However, Missouri is a solid -6.5 vs. Drake and BYU is -3 vs. VCU with Illinois and Mississippi awaiting the winners of the First Four play-in games.
The No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchups are usually pretty formful and it’s interesting to note (at least for yours truly) that they’re all lined similarly this year with UCLA -4.5 vs. Utah State, Kansas -4.5 vs. Arkansas, Saint Mary’s -4.5 vs. Vanderbilt and Marquette -4 vs. New Mexico.
Logically, the most higher-numbered seeds to win should be the No. 9s vs. the No. 8s — and that has happened with No. 9s going 16-8 straight-up the last six tourneys. As noted above, No. 9 Baylor was -1 vs. No. 8 Mississippi State on the openers (though down to pick-’em at most books by early Sunday night) with the No. 8s favored in the remaining matchups with underseeded Gonzaga -6.5 vs. Georgia, two-time defending national champion UConn -4.5 vs. Oklahoma and Louisville -2.5 vs. Creighton.
In the First Four games (play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio), the most notable opening line was North Carolina vs. San Diego State as No. 11 seeds on Tuesday night, especially with the Tar Heels’ controversial inclusion in the field. Circa Sports and the South Point here in Vegas opened UNC -3.5 and early money came in on the Tar Heels to push it to -4, which is where most other books opened. The other First Four lines have Alabama State -3.5 vs. St. Francis-PA in Tuesday’s opener, plus American -2.5 vs. Mount St. Mary’s and Xavier -2.5 vs. Texas.
