Tuley’s Takes on Thursday’s NCAA Tournament First-Round Games:
It’s the week we’ve all been waiting for here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Of course, we’re also bummed that the conference tournaments went by so fast as we went 10-1 with our recommended play on all the Unders in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament and anyone following along with our against-the-spread best bets on bubble teams against teams already locks for the NCAA field also should have made a tidy profit throughout the week highlighted by going 4-1 ATS last Thursday with wins on Texas +6.5 vs. Texas A&M, Xavier +2.5 vs. Marquette, SMU +6.5 vs. Clemson and Oklahoma +6.5 vs. Kentucky with the only loss on Villanova +6.5 vs. UConn.
But now it’s a brand-new ballgame with the NCAA Tournament tipping off with first-round games on Thursday and Friday. I know, I know, it technically starts with the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, but I’m skipping those this year. I know there’s some temptation to fade North Carolina with its controversial inclusion in the field, but we often see these teams motivated to justify their selection, so I’m staying away. Besides, the Tar Heels are favored, so I would invoke the “pass” part of my “dog or pass” philosophy anyway (note: if they advance out of the No. 11 seed game to face No. 6 Mississippi on Thursday, I don’t think I’d be adding them to my plays below as they won’t be getting many points if any).
Before getting to my takes for Thursday, I’ll start with my future bets that I included in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide. Hopefully you’ve already grabbed that as well.
Tennessee (+2000) or Houston (+575) to win the title
Going through the brackets (with an eye glancing at my VSiN colleague Gill Alexander’s “historical criteria” to pick a national champion — even though he says it’s more vulnerable than ever), I arrive at Tennessee as the best value pick at juicy odds of 20-1 (Westgate). The Volunteers are a little under the radar coming from the SEC with Auburn winning the regular-season title and being the No. 1 overall seed and Florida winning the conference tournament and as a No. 2 seed are priced way higher than the other Gill qualifiers: Duke (+350), Auburn (+450) and Houston (+575). I’m also betting Houston at +575 at Circa as the Cougars are being overlooked a little, highest odds among the No. 1 seeds, though they do have a tough potential second-round matchup vs. underseeded Gonzaga and must also get past Tennessee to even make it out of the Midwest Region to the Final Four. I’m looking for some books to offer odds on “region to win national title” to see if there is any value there with the Midwest.
Texas Tech to win West Region (+515)
Everyone seems to be jumping on the Florida bandwagon after the Gators won the deep SEC conference tournament. They check all the boxes to win the national championship, so I’m looking for a way to fade them instead of just taking teams with the points on a game-to-game basis. They’re -29 vs. No. 16 seed Norfolk State in the first round and will be overpriced as long as they survive. Texas Tech can score every which way, whether from 3 or pick-and-rolls inside, so the Red Raiders will be dangerous throughout and I also like their path to the conference final where they’ll probably face the Gators, potentially just having to get past UNC Wilmington, Missouri and St. John’s).
Tuley’s Takes for Thursday’s NCAA first-round games
High Point +8 vs. Purdue
12:40 p.m. ET
I feel a little square here as High Point has emerged as a popular public underdog. which we try to avoid as I much prefer my dog picks when they’re contrarian. I hope you got it at +9 as that was the opener at most books. However, I believe it’s still playable at +8 as it’s above the 4-5-6 threshold that a lot of games will end in when a team is trying to make a comeback while the favorite is trying to hold them off at the free-throw line. High Point (29-5) knows how to win as it enters the tournament on a 14-game winning streak and is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. Granted, it’s against weaker competition as the one-bid representative of the Big South, but the Panthers should be able to keep up with Purdue as they’re in the top 20 in two-point shooting percentage and also top 50 in 3-pointers. This is a much a bet against the Boilermakers, who obviously aren’t as potent as last year’s team that went to the title game with Zach Edey, especially on the defensive end, ranking a woeful 340th in two-point defense.
McNeese State +7.5 vs. Clemson
2:15 p.m. ET
Everyone looks for a No. 12 to upset a No. 5, right? In early betting, a lot of people are on Colorado State vs. Memphis. CSU is actually favored, so you know I’m passing there and would be more inclined to play the No. 5 seed, but I’m still passing. UC San Diego vs. Michigan is another popular pick, though that line opened too low for me, especially as I believe Michigan is underseeded after winning the Big Ten tournament. Instead, I’m sticking in the Midwest Region with the game after High Point-Purdue. As stated above, I like Houston or Tennessee to come out of this region, but I see a chance for several upsets in the rest of that bracket. I made Clemson only a four-point favorite as I don’t see that big of a difference between the teams, which does happen often in 5-12 matchups, right? Granted, if Clemson hits its 3s, we’re probably doomed, but if the Tigers just have a mediocre game, the Cowboys can outrebound them and be right in this game to the end. Also giving us hope is the fact Clemson is No. 327 in Adjusted Tempo (average possessions per 40 minutes), according to kenpom.com while McNeese State is No. 283, so neither team is expected to push the pace, which favors lower-scoring and tighter games.
Yale +7 vs. Texas A&M
7:25 p.m. ET
Yale upset Auburn in the first round last year in another 13-vs.-4 matchup, so the Bulldogs are clearly going to be public dogs again as they opened +7.5 and are already down to 7 at most books as of Tuesday. But it truly looks like the right side as Texas A&M is a very vulnerable No. 4 seed. Sure, the Aggies play great defense (No. 7 in defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com), but they don’t shoot very well and often only get bailed out by second chances as they’re a strong rebounding team. If Yale can hold its own on the boards, it can outshoot A&M and have a great chance at another major upset. It also doesn’t hurt to have Ivy League kids who can play smart — avoid fouling to give easy points to opponents, take care of the ball and move the ball around for high-percentage shots inside complemented by the timely 3s — and give themselves the best chance to win.
