VCU vs. Saint Louis
Friday night features the calm before the storm. We only have 13 college basketball games on the schedule for Feb. 20, but there are nearly 150 games on Saturday, so almost 300 of the nation’s 365 teams will be on the floor. So, you can see why Friday night is a little light, but there are a couple of really cool games, including VCU vs. Saint Louis.
While Indiana vs. Purdue is the biggest game of the night, the Billikens are a team worth talking about. Saint Louis should win the A-10, but they’re going to get an at-large berth regardless, barring a gigantic collapse late in the season. This is a bounce back spot for Saint Louis, given that they lost to Rhode Island last time out. The Rams have won 10 in a row, so we’ll see if they can keep that streak going with a huge upset.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 19, 6:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
VCU vs. Saint Louis (-8.5, 165.5)
7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Rams look to be the biggest threat to the Billikens, as they are the second-ranked team in this conference per Torvik and KenPom. VCU and Saint Louis played in Richmond back on Jan. 7 and SLU took down the win 71-62 in a game played to 77 possessions. For those who are looking at this total and are wondering why it is so high with a total of 133 combined points in the first game, the pace should support a high total.
Also, the teams combined to shoot 30-of-69 on shot attempts at the rim. Saint Louis was 19-of-38 in that game, but VCU was just 11-of-31. The teams were also collectively 12-of-44 from 3. It was not a strong shooting effort for either squad. These are the two best teams in the conference by adjusted offensive efficiency, with SLU first and VCU second. The Billikens are shooting 57.7% on 2s and 45.1% on 3s. They were nowhere near those numbers in the first game.
And what’s worth pointing out about that is VCU is not the same defensive stalwart that they’ve been in the past. The Rams are just eighth in conference play in adjusted defensive efficiency and only have a 15.8% TO%. When you dig a little bit deeper, though, they are third in eFG% defense, so they’ve done a good job of keeping teams from making shots. They’re just not the same team when it comes to pressure and takeaways. So, they’re going to have to rely on a very good Billikens offense missing shots.
In conference play, Saint Louis is first in eFG% offense and defense and by a wide margin. Not only that, but nationally, Saint Louis is second in eFG% offense and first in eFG% defense. They are such an incredible team on both ends of the floor, which made their second loss of the season last time out against Rhode Island such a shocker.
Superstar Robbie Avila, who we all know as Cream Abdul-Jabbar or Larry Nerd, only had eight points in the first game against VCU. He’s only averaged 12.7 PPG this season, but five players are in double figures for the Billikens because of how much they’ve spread playing time around. Head coach Josh Schertz has had the luxury of managing the workloads for most everybody, making this an even more dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
VCU really balances playing time as well. They only have three players in double figures, led by Terrence Hill with 14.6 PPG and Lazar Djokovic with 13.7 PPG. One of the biggest offensive differences between the two teams is that VCU is just sixth in the conference in 3P%, but that is at 35.2%, which would be higher than sixth in most conferences. Both teams shoot a high rate of 3s, hence that high total mentioned earlier.
VCU vs. Saint Louis Prediction
After a brick fest in the first game, we should certainly see better offensive numbers in this one. Maybe not to the tune of 165+ points, but surely a stronger showing than the first meeting. Saint Louis losing last time out should help the team re-focus, as they suffered their first defeat since the day after Thanksgiving. VCU is definitely the closest team to Saint Louis in this conference, but there is a huge gap, and a higher-scoring game favors the Billikens.
Pick: Saint Louis -8.5
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