The following are the March Mania Betting Guide Best Bets from our VSiN hosts.
Greg Peterson
Hawaii vs. Arkansas Under 160.5
Hawaii ranks ninth in the nation in points per possession allowed on defense. Arkansas has been explosive offensively, ranking third in points per possession overall, but both teams defend the three-point line well. Arkansas ranks 56th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 31.7% while Hawaii ranks 21st at 30.5%.
Pennsylvania +24.5 vs. Illinois
Pennsylvania leads the country in three-point shooting percentage away from home at 41.8% and should not be under much defensive pressure with Illinois generating the fewest turnovers per possession of any team in the nation. On defense, Pennsylvania ranks 57th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 31.7%. Illinois ranks 10th in the nation in percentage of field goal attempts that come from three-point range in games played away from home.
Tennessee State +25 vs. Iowa State
Tennessee State has not been to the NCAA Tournament in over 30 years, but they bring tournament experience with head coach Nolan Smith, who played at Duke. Both Tennessee State and Iowa State share a defensive strength in generating turnovers, with Tennessee State ranking 24th in turnovers per possession forced while Iowa State ranks fourth. Iowa State also struggles at the free throw line, ranking 340th in free throw shooting percentage at 67.2%, while Tennessee State ranks 317th in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
MATT YOUMANS
Florida to reach Elite Eight (-160)
A humbling blowout loss to Vanderbilt in an SEC tournament semifinal should motivate the defending NCAA champions. Florida had a 12-game win streak, including a 111-77 victory over Arkansas, before falling to the Commodores. Gators coach Todd Golden has turned into an obnoxious clown, but there’s a lot to like about his team, especially junior forwards Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. It’s a team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Florida should have no problem getting past the Clemson-Iowa winner in the second round and then gets a likely revenge game against Vanderbilt.
St. John’s to reach Sweet 16 (-105)
This is Rick Pitino’s time to make a deep March run. Pitino is 4-1 in his last five meetings with UConn coach Danny Hurley, punctuated by the Red Storm’s beatdown of the Huskies in the Big East tournament. The Big East might be weak, but UConn is not and Pitino’s team is the real deal. St. John’s has some offensive shortcomings, yet there is no doubt about its defense and toughness, which is personified by senior big man Zuby Ejiofor. The Red Storm will get a first-round fight from Northern Iowa before taking down a Kansas team that’s not so tough away from home. St. John’s will prove it deserved better than a 5 seed and a trip to San Diego.
Steve Makinen
VCU +2.5 vs. North Carolina
On my Shared Traits article of teams most likely to be upset in the first round, North Carolina lands at the top of the chart, and I’m not sure there is a worse 11 seed the #6 Tar Heels could match up against than VCU. The #6-#11 matchup is always a great spot to find upsets, but in my opinion this one really stands out. My Game Grade Forecasts say that the wrong team is favored here. None of my other ratings suggest this line should get to 2.5 by any means. If UNC had Caleb Wilson, this might be a different story as he would have given them a clear front-court edge. Without that, I’m not sure there are many areas in which UNC has an edge, particularly with as well as VCU shoots.
Vanderbilt -11 vs. McNeese
With McNeese’s obvious strength being the ability to create havoc defensively and force turnovers, there are very few teams they would probably least rather play than Vanderbilt. The Commodores’ strength is in their backcourt. As a team they turned the ball over the eighth-fewest times in the country by percentage. Vandy is also hot right now, seemingly picking it back up at the right time after falling from 16-0 to 22-7 at one point. I think Vanderbilt has a nice chance to make a run in the South Region and it starts here.
Iowa State +245 to reach Final Four
I was quite surprised to see Iowa State as the team with the best combined ranks average of the 15 stat/strength measurables I track for my Shared Traits article. The Cyclones are at or near the top for both the Final Four and Champion potential qualification charts. ISU shoots the ball as well as anybody, they play fast through their guards, and they have a tremendous amount of veteran presence. It is this continuity, and recent level of play, that finds me giving them the edge over Michigan, their biggest road block in their route to the Final Four.
Purdue +105 to reach the Elite Eight
At the outset of the season, Purdue was one of the top threats to eventually be a Final Four qualifying team, and at this point, I wouldn’t discount those chances. The Boilermakers are a veteran team that has a ton of tournament experience and has a player in PG Braden Smith that is capable of putting a team on his back. This is another team that started fast (17-1) with some highly impressive huge victories. They lost seven of their next 13 games but then finished strong by winning the Big Ten title. HC Matt Painter seems to be pushing the timing buttons right. Statistically this team is very good, and boasts an incredible 2.195 assist to turnover ratio. They won’t get rattled.
Wes Reynolds
TCU +2.5 vs. Ohio State
Bruce Thornton, who became the Buckeyes’ all-time leading scorer, finally will get to play in the NCAA Tournament as he and Ohio State won four of the last five games and played their way off the bubble into a comfortable at-large selection.
TCU began February at 13-9 and also played its way off the bubble winning nine of their last 11 games including victories vs. Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs present a tough challenge for Thornton switching on all ball screens and throwing various hedges and traps at him. Only Iowa State and Houston, two top-five national defenses, did a better job at forcing turnovers than TCU did in Big 12 play.
Keep in mind, TCU has non-conference wins over both Florida and Wisconsin plus had Michigan on the ropes back in November immediately before the Wolverines ran through the Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas and became consensus No. 1 at that time.
Northern Iowa +11 vs. St. John’s
St. John’s swept both the Big East regular season and tournament crowns. Of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, the Red Storm are the team most discussed as being under-seeded at a 5 seed. While Duke is the rightful heavy favorite, St. John’s is getting a fair amount of love to potentially come out of the East Region to make the Final Four.
However, St. John’s has drawn a difficult matchup in the first round with Northern Iowa, who won the Missouri Valley Tournament as a 6 seed, but might have been the best team in that conference over the last month of the season.
This game presents a contrast in styles as St. John’s wants to get up and down and UNI likes to slow it to a crawl ranking No. 363 in tempo. UNI does not give up much in transition or at the rim and will force St. John’s (33.2% 3pt, No. 216 nationally) to beat them from the outside.
A double-digit spread looks a bit inflated here (at least partially due to the hype on Pitino and St. John’s coming in here) for a game that should have fewer possessions.
High Point vs. Wisconsin Over 164
The Selection Committee seems to like higher-scoring games as they have matched up several high-scoring teams with each other in the first round. Six matchups have totals over 160 and this matchup is one of them.
High Point is back in the NCAA Tournament winning the Big South for the second straight year. They come into the dance with the nation’s longest active winning streak (14). The Panthers are the nation’s No. 3 scoring offense (90 PPG) only behind Alabama and Miami OH. The competition gets stiffer for them, as this is High Point’s first matchup of the season against any team in the KenPom Top 100. However, they should get their fair share of points against a Wisconsin defense that is statistically the worst of the Greg Gard era in Madison. Gard has sacrificed some defense for a potent offense led by Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.
Last year, High Point was grinded to a halt by Purdue in the first round, but Wisconsin is a more willing participant in a higher-tempo game.
Purdue To Reach Elite Eight +105
At the beginning of the season, Purdue was the +750 favorite to win it all. Based on the preseason expectations, the Boilermakers, led by senior backcourt mates Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, who have now started 140 games together, certainly disappointed as the preseason No. 1 ended up being the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Nevertheless, they won said tournament and took down Michigan in the final. Senior guards also win in the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue ended the regular season losing four of its last six games, but seemed to regroup and find something during those four days in Chicago. Big man Oscar Cluff was the key and has raised his play, averaging 17.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG in the Big Ten Tournament. Cluff did not score over 10 points in any of his last seven games prior to the postseason. If he continues that play, then the Boilermakers will certainly be a factor in the West Region.
The biggest issue for the Boilers is running into a team that lays over them athletically and no one in the bottom half of the draw really does that until potentially an Elite Eight matchup with likely Arizona or Arkansas.
STORMY BUONANTONY
Utah State (-135) ML vs Villanova
Miss me with all the “Mountain West is the worst cover conference in the tournament” trends because I don’t care. I like this matchup for the Aggies who got back on track during the MW Conference Tournament & can build on it with a First Round win in the Dance. They are 4-4 in Quad 1 games to Villanova’s 2-6. They also have a better NET Ranking, are 28th in CBB in Offensive Efficiency, 11th nationally on 2-point shots, hitting at nearly 60%, and can hit the 3, but don’t rely on it. Villanova is a little beat up with starting forward Matt Hodge tearing his ACL and, while their backcourt is strong defensively as a whole, they rank outside of the Top 150 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed. We also just saw them get bounced 78-64 in the Big East QFs to Georgetown and look like a quick out from the eye test. These seeds should probably be flipped.
VCU +2.5 vs UNC
It’s no secret UNC is not the same without Top 5 pick Caleb Wilson on the court. In fact, VCU actually has a better adjusted efficiency mark than North Carolina since the Wilson injury & the Tar Heels’ lone road win without him came to a bad Syracuse team that lost six straight games to end the season. VCU meanwhile has something to prove after the committee said Selection Sunday the only reason they got in was winning the A10 Tournament. They ended the season on a nice run, winning six straight and 16 of their last 17 games SU. They also covered in three of the last four and seven of the last 11, largely in a favorite role. VCU is a strong 3-point shooting team, which you like for an underdog this time of year, ranking 35th in the country from 3 to UNC’s 216th in 3-point shooting allowed. They played a couple ACC teams in the early season non-con as well and were competitive, going toe-to-toe with NC State and beat Virginia Tech by 18 on a neutral.
Houston To Make The Elite Eight (+110)
It’s a no-brainer in my mind based on the bracket that Illinois will be the matchup in the Sweet 16 in which I see Houston favored and they should win. That’s not just from a matchup standpoint, but add in home court advantage coming out of the South side of the bracket with the Sweet 16 & Elite Eight site at Toyota Center in Houston. I think they are a true contender to win it all this year, so I’m also on board with a Final Four +250, National Champion 10-1.
Jonathan Von Tobel
High Point +10 vs. Wisconsin
High Point doesn’t fit the exact criteria of a first-round Cinderella, but it’s hard not to be attracted to their profile. The Panthers head into the NCAA Tournament on the nation’s longest winning streak (14), they are 66th in offensive efficiency, and 49th in tempo (69.9). High Point will be more than willing to match Wisconsin’s tempo, and it should have the horses to bother a defense that allowed 113.7 points every 100 possessions to Big Ten opponents.
Hofstra +13 vs. Alabama
Unlike High Point, Hofstra has everything in its profile that can lead to a first-round upset. The Pride rank 317th in the country in tempo (64.7) and they played slightly slower in conference (64.4). They also take 43.1% of their attempts from beyond the arc while ranking 29th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.8%). In other words, Hofstra will eliminate the possessions a better team like Alabama needs to pull away, and it takes a high-value shot at a high rate. That is exactly what you need when betting an underdog in the NCAA Tournament. Just ask Jack Gohlke!
Kansas -14.5 vs. Cal Baptist
I’m not entirely sure what to make of Kansas in the grand scheme of the NCAA Tournament. But, I do know that I believe this is a matchup nightmare for Cal Baptist. The Lancers are an abysmal offensive team. They are 191st in the country in offensive efficiency (107.9), 302nd in the country in effective field goal percentage (48.6%) and 318th in 2-point percentage (47.7%). Kansas was not the best rebounding team in the country, but can Cal Baptist really successfully run its dump-and-chase offense against a team like KU? I don’t believe so.
Sum of Men’s Final Four Seeds: Under 9.5 -130
We’re starting to see the effects of NIL on the college basketball landscape. Favorites in the first round are bigger than we have seen before, and the teams at the top are better than even the teams in the second tier. My personal Final Four has a sum of five and I do not believe a seed beyond the twos will burn me here. I think it’s a chalky tournament and I’ll take the higher number on the market with this prop.
Gill Alexander
Santa Clara +4 vs. Kentucky
…And the line is getting better than it was upon release. Classic case of “if the jerseys are swapped”, how different is this line. Since Christmas, Santa Clara has only lost to Gonzaga (3x) and Saint Mary’s (and beat Saint Mary’s in the WCC tournament) and possesses one of the great traits of upset-minded teams in the Big Dance, 3-point shooting prowess. I’ll take Allen Graves and Christian Hammond’s shooting percentage from behind the arc over blue blood Kentucky who isn’t exactly elite on either side of the court. Might even sprinkle some on the ML.
Northern Iowa +10.5 vs. St. John’s
This is obviously going to be a hugely popular play which concerns me greatly, but I’m relying on a complete rock fight to get this one home. Unlike with Santa Clara above, I will stay away from betting anything on an outright win and expect St. John’s to advance. But, if 3-point shooting expertise is the single greatest characteristic of a team capable of flirting with an upset during March Madness, playing at a snail’s pace is its first cousin. Northern Iowa ranks 362nd in adjusted tempo (out of 365 teams) and allows 61.3 PPG, fewest in D1. Fewer possessions equals fewer opportunities for Rick Pitino’s team to pull away. I’ll take the points.
Matt Brown
Iowa State Midwest Region Winner (+245)
No disrespect to Virginia or Tennessee, but the Midwest Region feels like a two-team battle between the Cyclones and Wolverines. Iowa State’s combination of elite defense and ability to hit the three at a high rate makes them a team nobody wants to play. They’ve got three big-time players in Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, and Tamin Lipsey who can power this team to beat anybody in the country. Let’s just hope they don’t need any clutch free throws along the way (342nd at 67.2%).
Dustin Swedelson
UCLA to Make Elite Eight +650, Final Four 55-1
Mick Cronin has said the Bruins’ top two scorers, Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent, who dealt with injuries during the Big Ten Tournament , will play. That is massive for a UCLA team that is probably built better for the tournament than the regular season. For starters, Cronin has taken worse teams deep into the NCAA Tournament. He has consistently been a good tournament style coach with the defense and intensity his teams bring. Of the teams in the field, UCLA plays at the seventh-slowest tempo but features the 22nd-most efficient offense with the ability to score from 3-point range at a 38.2% clip. That is a recipe for success this time of year.
Iowa vs. Clemson Under 129.5
Neither of these teams is looking to run and gun if they are going to be successful. Iowa is 359th nationally in average possession length while Clemson is 199th. Both feature Top 30 defenses and offenses more successful from 2-point range than from beyond the arc. Iowa is very Bennett Stirtz-dependent on offense with him averaging 26.6% of their point output, so not sure how many guys will get going for them. Clemson doesn’t have the 3-point shooting we have grown accustomed to seeing with Brad Brownell’s squads. Everything points to a lower-scoring game to me.
Troy +13 vs Nebraska
Troy is a battle-tested Sun Belt team. In November, they beat San Diego State in double overtime then lost at USC in triple overtime in back-to-back games. They also have wins against quality opponents like Kent State, Furman and UAB this season. They are a good rebounding squad, out-boarding USC 63 to 39 in their loss in Los Angeles, which could be big vs. a Nebraska team 169th in total rebounding percentage.
Dave Ross
Gonzaga 20-1 To Make The Finals
I’m taking some swings on longer shots this year and targeting deeper price points. In the West, that means trusting two coaches I don’t usually feel great about backing: Tommy Lloyd and Mark Few. Even so, I think both are good enough to navigate this region and meet in the regional final, setting up a mentor-versus-student matchup with the edge ultimately going to the mentor.
Michigan State 48-1 To Win The National Championship
In the East, Duke got a brutal draw. I’m not exactly sure when they bow out, but with the injuries they’re dealing with I have a hard time seeing them make a deep run. That leaves the door open for Tom Izzo to do what he always seems to do in March — pick up the pieces in a chaotic region and guide Michigan State Spartans men’s basketball back to yet another Final Four.
Alabama 180-1 To Win The National Championship
In the Midwest, nobody seems to trust Alabama — which honestly makes me feel like they might shock a few people, myself included. That said, I didn’t quite have the guts to take them all the way past Michigan. I see Michigan ultimately coming out of the region, knocking off another SEC “longshot” in blue blood Kentucky along the way.
Down South, I think both Jensen and I will get at least a little enjoyment out of watching our alma maters make a run and pick up a few wins. Ultimately, though, I like the chalk to prevail with Houston and Florida meeting in the regional final. In what should be a knock-down, drag-out game, I’ll take Houston to survive and advance.
That leaves a Final Four where Houston outslugs Michigan State in what could be a game that sets college basketball back 100 years stylistically, while Gonzaga Bulldogs men’s basketball shock the hoops world by taking down No. 1 Michigan. And if Mark Few gets Gonzaga that far, why not finish the job? Give me the Zags over Houston to cut down the nets, but I did also sprinkle a long shot on UCLA at 400-1.
Pauly Howard
Georgia -2.5 vs. Saint Louis
I’m against Saint Louis here because they started out 24-1 and they come limping into the tourney, getting blown out two times in the last few weeks also.
Akron +7.5 vs. Texas Tech
The Zips can win this game. Last year didn’t go well, but I think the experience helps and they rate 30 spots higher than Miami of Ohio on KenPom.
Queens +25.5 vs. Purdue
This team can score and won the Atlantic Sun as a 3 seed. They knocked off two good teams to get here in Austin Peay and Central Arkansas. Purdue is still smelling themselves off the Big Ten tourney wins.
No Buzzer Beater +110 (DraftKings)
This used to be 1.5 and was stealing money. People want it to happen but you can go back 30 years and would be hard pressed to list more than five off the top of your head. Here is the official language from DraftKings: “A buzzer beater is a valid field goal made to give a team the lead as time expires at the end of the game, with no subsequent in bounds play.”
JENSEN LEWIS
South Florida +190 vs. Louisville
Bullish on the Bulls! South Florida, fresh off winning the American Conference Tournament, are riding the highs and present a real challenge to Louisville. South Florida’s stout defense can frustrate the Cardinals, especially if they aren’t hitting their 3-pointers early. The Bulls’ elite offensive rebounding and ability to generate second-chance points will give them an edge as well. Strap in for a potentially high-scoring affair and one that’s got upset written all over it!
Purdue & Gonzaga to Make the Sweet 16 parlay: -122 on DraftKings
The Boilermakers are trending up, winning the Big Ten conference title and looking much more like the title contender they expected to be. Their interior size and athleticism should overwhelm Queens in the Round of 64 and be plenty to outgun either Missouri or Miami. Mark Few’s Gonzaga squad is one of the best defensive teams in the country and will handle Kennesaw State with ease in their opener. A potential Round of 32 matchup with BYU is the tougher test, but the Bulldogs will grind out a win to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.
Duke & Michigan to Reach the Championship: +512 on DK
We saw the potential National Championship preview back in Washington D.C. earlier this year. It feels like we deserve a rematch. Make no mistake: the East region is absolutely brutal for Duke. They’ve answered every test and are still, overall, arguably the best team in the country. A daunting path, including possible matchups with the likes of St. John’s, Kansas and UConn lie ahead. Michigan’s path out of the Midwest is no cakewalk either and upset potential lingers if their Round of 32 clash is with Saint Louis. Nevertheless, these two teams are extremely proficient offensively, can lock down on defense, and are coached by two of the brightest minds in Jon Scheyer and Dusty May. The Blue Devils would love nothing more than to add another win over the Wolverines in the biggest game of the year, while Michigan seeks to reach the mountaintop for the first time since 1989.
Aaron Moore
Troy +13.5 vs. Nebraska
First bet I made on Selection Sunday (at +14.5). This matchup between the defensive-minded Trojans catching a lot of points against a fast-paced offense with Nebraska fits the profile of a heavy dog finding a way to stay around long enough to cover. The Cornhuskers offense runs on volume and that shouldn’t be the case against Troy that tends to keep games at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Also, the length of Troy’s front-court of Victor Valdes, Thomas Dowd and Jerrell Bellamy matches up well against Rienk Mast and Pryce Sandfort.
Utah State -135 ML over Villanova
The Aggies that lost three of the final five regular season games looked a lot different running through the Mountain West tournament. Utah State’s offense behind MJ Collins and Mason Falslev is clicking, while Villanova without Matt Hodge will have issues keeping pace. Utah State also gets a slight boost from playing inside the familiar Viejas Arena.
Houston +110 to Reach Elite Eight
Before the logic of this play, please don’t give me your dissertation on the rollover parlay paying more. I know more people who have chugged beers with the Easter Bunny than actually perform the rollover parlay. There is a convenience fee involved in playing it on the futures board that makes sense when bettors are so deeply involved with all the March Madness action constantly surrounding them. The play here is based on predicting a Houston – Illinois matchup in the Sweet 16 and getting the defensive focused Cougars at a plus price in advance.
Sum of Final Four Seeds Under 8.5 (-130)
I thought the number would be lower, as well as the juice. I have a hard time not seeing Michigan and Arizona as No.1s making the Final Four. If Duke or Florida somehow doesn’t get to Indianapolis, it seems extremely unlikely that a team on the 4 line or higher will be the ones to knock them off.
Darius Acuff Jr. (150-1) to be the 2026 NBA Number 1 Overall Pick
Here is a correlated March Madness wager best suited for Mitch and Pauly’s Tip Jar. For the first time, the Arkansas freshman is listed on this board available at FanDuel. AJ Dybantsa is now a -105 favorite, with former top choice Darryn Peterson at +140. One of those two should be the top pick regardless of their tournament performances. Acuff Jr. can be a small play here because he has already moved up the odds board based on his spectacular final month of the season. If the Razorbacks make the Sweet 16 and play Arizona like many believe, this could be some more showcase time for the budding superstar. That could create increased betting attention and force FanDuel to lower their odds and offer cashouts to those who played him at 150-1. If that happens, consider this wager like an investment in a penny stock.
Will Hill
Northern Iowa +10.5 vs. St. John’s
A tough draw for the Big East champs, as St John’s draws MVC winner and past Cinderella Northern Iowa. A lot of boxes get checked here when looking for a live dog. Northern Iowa is third nationally and first in the tourney in opponent 3-point percentage allowed at 28.9%, while also playing at a slow pace (362nd out of 365 teams). A stout defense and a snail’s pace are perfect ingredients for a team catching double-digits.
Under 9.5 Sum of Seeds in Final Four (-135) (BetMGM)
Shocked by this number. All year the consensus has been how top-heavy the sport is with the dominance of the teams at the top of college basketball, an opinion I completely agree with. Sure, all it takes is one FAU or NC State-type run to sabotage this bet, but we saw no such run last year and I don’t expect one this year either. Over 1.5 No. 1 seeds in the Final Four is a fine alternative.
Ben Stevens
Penn vs. Illinois Over 149.5
Brad Underwood and Fran McCaffery, a story as old as time. Illinois has the second-best offensive efficiency rating EVER on KenPom (only behind this year’s Purdue team) entering the NCAA Tournament. Penn likes to play fast, and push the pace. I think this is a free-flowing opening round game that features a lot of points.
USF vs. Louisville Over 165.5
This was the first Round of 64 bet (at 163.5) that I made as the totals started trickling out following the bracket reveal. If you like offense, you’ve come to the right place. The Cards have the fourth-highest 3P Rate at the D-I level, meaning Louisville takes 52.8% of its shots from beyond the 3-point line. USF is the 16th-fastest team in college basketball, and head coach Bryan Hodgson is a Nate Oats disciple (that means points, folks).
VCU +2.5 (+120 ML) vs North Carolina
I love this VCU team coached by Phil Martelli Jr. The champions of the A-10, the Rams play incredibly balanced, efficient basketball on both ends of the floor. And UNC without Caleb Wilson just isn’t the same team. Via CBBAnalytics, the Heels have a Net Rating of -0.8 in their last 10 games (eight of those without Wilson). Plus, 11 seeds are 31-29 SU against 6 seeds in the Round of 64 since 2010.
Tim Murray
South Florida +5.5 vs Louisville
A number of teams are dealing with injuries to significant players in the NCAA Tournament and that includes Louisville. Projected NBA lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. has missed the last four games due to a lingering back injury. Brown averaged 18 points per game and 4.7 assists per game this season. South Florida enters the NCAA Tournament riding an 11-game winning streak. Both the Cardinals and Bulls will look to push the pace. USF is 15th in adjusted tempo while Louisville is 69th. Normally, I want to look for slower paced teams to pull an upset but I do not think South Florida is that far off athletically from the Cardinals. USF head coach Bryan Hodgson might be “one & done” in Tampa but his team will have a good shot to pull off the upset and I would not be shocked if USF reached the Sweet 16.
Northern Iowa +10.5 vs St. John’s
Is Northern Iowa going to be a ‘trendy’ underdog in the First Round? It certainly seems possible. That said, the Panthers profile as an ideal candidate to give St. John’s some issues. Northern Iowa is top 25 in defensive efficiency and is the slowest team in the NCAA Tournament (363 out of 365 in adjusted tempo). Now, Northern Iowa could struggle to score against St. John’s. The Red Storm are one of the top defensive teams in the country, and Zuby Ejiofor could be an issue inside for the Panthers. The Big East Player of the Year averages 16 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.1 blocks per game. Still, St. John’s does not rely on shooting from beyond the arc but the Red Storm only shot 33% on the season and Northern Iowa is elite at defending the 3. The Panthers have not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016 but head coach Ben Jacobson has led Northern Iowa to three wins in the First Round. I’m not sure if the Panthers can pull the upset over the Red Storm, but they profile as a team that could muck up a game and get the cover.
Ryan Kramer
All 36 First Four & First Round 1H Unders
*Year by Year record can be found here – 1H Unders
Since 2011 (First Four expansion), Sean Green and myself have been betting EVERY First Four & First Round first half Under. In those 15 seasons and 14 tournaments (remember they took away the 2020 NCAA tourney from us), first half Unders have been profitable in 10 out of 14 seasons with an overall record of 280-206-18 (57.61%). Four core reasons why.
NERVES, For a number of guys on the court, playing in an NCAA tournament game is the biggest moment of their college career, very easy to start cold or come in too jacked up on adrenaline.
UNFAMILIAR COURTS, All the games being played on neutral-site courts means a number of players will be playing in arenas where they’ve never played before. Shooters are creatures of habit and new environments can take a little getting used to.
UNFAMILIAR OPPONENTS, In the opening round, it’s not uncommon for the teams not to have played each other, and can create some opportunities for the defenses to give some unfamiliar looks that may take a little to adjust to.
BODY CLOCK, Teams are playing at times they don’t normally play at. Offense and scoring in basketball is about being comfortable finding a rhythm. Playing at different times can easily make teams start a little slow until their muscle memory fully kicks in.
I’d wish you best of luck this year, but history tells us you won’t need it.
Mike Palm
Clemson +2.5 vs. Iowa
The Tigers have taken on the personality of Brad Brownell, the current dean of ACC coaches. They rank 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. While the Hawkeyes play at a Galapagos tortoise pace (358th nationally in adjusted tempo), Clemson is comfortable playing a half-court game. Add the fact that Iowa has been trending downward. In their final 10 regular season games, Ben McCollum’s club ranked a ghastly 359th in effective FG defense – giving up 58% from inside the arc and 41% from beyond it.
BRAD TAYLOR
South Region to win the NCAA Tournament (+310 at DraftKings)
I get Florida and Houston, and won’t need the rest. In my world, the winner of this game (if it happens) wins the National Championship. Many are down on Houston this season, but they are still one of only five teams in the Top 20 in KenPom offense and defense. Kelvin Sampson has made the Elite Eight in three of the past five seasons. And before losing in the SEC Tournament, Florida had been the best team in College Basketball for the previous nine weeks. The Power Ratings reflect the strengths of these teams, and the odds reflect they must play each other to make the Final Four while the other #1 seeds don’t play a team of this level.
Number of No. 1 Seeds to Make the Final Four, Under 1.5 (+130 BetMGM)
Sometimes, the past can help us predict the future, even in the NCAA Tournament. All the #1 seeds made it to the Final Four in 2025. Same thing happened in 2008, then in 2009 only two #1 seeds made the Final Four. I’m an old guy who’s been around the block way too many times than I care to admit. To say that college sports aren’t the same is obvious. Keep in mind that Florida was dead to rights twice before reaching the Final Four in 2025. I’ll take my chances that this tournament gets Back to Life, and Back to Reality by actually seeing #1 seeds lose before the Final Four. History is definitely on our side in this one.
SEAN GREEN
Miami to reach Final Four (50-1)
I liked Miami at 80-1 to win their region before the tournament was drawn and like them even more now that we know their path. I like good teams who get knocked out early in their conference tournaments and expect to see a locked-in Miami team after their 22-point loss to UVA. In addition, the two best teams on the road this year ATS are Florida and Miami. The Gators are 9-1, while the Hurricanes are right there at 8-2. Purdue and Gonzaga will be tough but winnable games for Miami. And if they make it to the Elite Eight, you’ll have a great number to work with. Will I hedge out at that point when they face Arizona? No, I’ll let it ride. The Canes need to do the right thing and get Michael Irvin and his belt courtside to go on another unlikely run like they did in football.
NICK WHALEN
Virginia to reach Sweet 16 (-125)
While the Cavaliers came up just short in the ACC Championship Game, they enter the Tournament having won 14 of their last 16 games – with both losses coming to Duke. One of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, Virginia shouldn’t face much of a struggle against Wright State in Round 1 and would then be set to face the winner of Tennessee-SMU/Miami (OH) in the Round of 32. SMU, in particular, could give Tennessee trouble in that matchup but if we do get a Tennessee-Virginia showdown, I like Virginia’s chances to limit the Vols on the glass. Tennessee is a historically great offensive rebounding team, but Virginia has plenty of size up front and ranks as a top-20 rebounding team in the nation.
Troy +13.5 vs. Nebraska
I wouldn’t go as far as to pick Troy to win outright, but this is one of the 4-13 matchups I’ll be keeping a close eye on. Nebraska, of course, got off to a red-hot start to the season but has fallen off, offensively, since late-January, ranking outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Troy tends to run hot and cold, but they shoot enough 3s to keep up with Nebraska and have some intriguing size that could give the Huskers’ backcourt problems. One trend to consider: Since 2013, four-seeds in games with a total of 142 or less – the total here is 137.5, as of publication – are just 5-17 ATS.
DAVE TULEY
Duke To Win National Championship (+350)
I know I’m the “dog or pass” guy, but that’s mostly for individual games. When it comes to futures, I’m not opposed to betting the chalk if I still believe the price is an overlay (and since we’re getting a plus–price, I can rationalize in my mind that I’m still betting a dog). This is also similar to last December when I made Indiana my CFB Playoff Best Bet despite being the betting favorite because the Hoosiers were the best team and college sports overall has seen a widening of the gap between the haves and have-nots with the transfer portal and NIL deals. It’s a whole new ballgame (look at how chalky last year’s March Madness was) and it’s even harder for true Cinderella stories in this era. Like Indiana, Duke is overall No. 1 seed despite losing in the ACC Tournament and is also the No. 1 team at KenPom. We also get the Wooden Award favorite in freshman phenom Cameron Boozer. As of Monday morning, Duke was still +350 at Circa Sports while mostly +300 elsewhere. That sure looks like a fair price for this team to win six straight games to cut down the nets, especially as big faves in their early games and never close to pick-’em until the final weekend.
Saint Louis +2.5 vs. Georgia
This is an 8-9 matchup with Georgia opening after the Selection Show on Sunday as a short 1.5- to 2-point favorite and the SEC team has been bet up to 2.5 at most books and to -3 at the South Point as of deadline late Monday morning. I’m waiting to fade this move at its peak as the Billikens are being overlooked after losing in the Atlantic 10 semifinals to Dayton and needing an at-large bid. I actually bet George Washington +7 against Saint Louis in the A-10 tourney and saw the Billikens rally from a 14-point halftime deficit by outscoring GW by 21 points in the second half to win by seven. While I was bummed by the “Bad Push,” I came away impressed by Saint Louis’ performance. The Billikens play better defense than the Bulldogs and work the ball around for good shots. If they play two complete halves, they have a great shot at the minor upset, but we’ll take as many points as they’ll give us just in case.
McNeese +11.5 vs. Vanderbilt
No. 12 seeds aren’t the automatic play they used to be vs. No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but this looks like one of those old-school 5-12 matchups with McNeese State as a live double-digit underdog with a low seed as Southland Conference champions, just like last year when the Cowboys upset Clemson in a 5-12 matchup. Granted, McNeese State isn’t as good (especially on offense) as their tourney teams the last two years under former coach Will Wade, but its pressure defense is tops in the nation in turnover rate and they hit the offensive boards for second chances. That should keep the Cowboys in the game. If this line was closer to a “touchdown” (or as they kids say, “6-7”), I would pass, but gimme the double digits.
ZACHARY COHEN
USF +5.5 vs. Louisville
South Florida is a strong defensive team, ranking 43rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (101.4) when looking at Bart Torvik’s numbers. If there’s anywhere the Bulls struggle, it’s that they can occasionally be a little too physical. USF is 277th in the nation in Free Throw Rate Defense (38.8). Well, Louisville probably won’t be able to take advantage of that. The Cardinals are a trigger-happy team, ranking fourth in the country in 3-Point Rate (52.8). They take a ton of jumpers at the expense of going to the rim, and they don’t shoot a lot of free throws because of that. That said, if Louisville isn’t scorching hot from deep, USF should do a decent job defensively. That’ll be huge because the Bulls can score on anyone — and bully anyone on the offensive boards. That means this should be a pretty close game — and one the Bulls can win. Add in the uncertainty with Mikel Brown Jr. and the USF side only looks better.
VCU +2.5 vs. North Carolina
This almost feels like a game in which the wrong team is favored. Caleb Wilson, North Carolina’s best player, is out for the year after having broken his right thumb in practice on March 5. All of a sudden, the Tar Heels are without a guy that was averaging 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, while also being a huge part of the reason they’re 52nd in the nation in EFG% (54.6) and 37th in 2PT% (56.7). Now, this North Carolina team really doesn’t have much of a gameplan offensively, which could be problematic against a solid VCU defense. I also don’t have much faith in the Heels getting consistent stops against the Rams. VCU doesn’t turn the ball over much, ranking 73rd in the nation in Turnover Rate (15.2). Meanwhile, North Carolina doesn’t turn teams over, ranking 344th in Turnover Rate Defense (13.6). The Rams are also a very good shooting team, knocking down 36.7% of their 3s. They take — and make — triples at a higher clip than the Heels, and they should have a good amount of possessions. That should mean VCU is primed to pull off an upset.
Akron +7.5 vs. Texas Tech
This is another game in which we’ll see a team that doesn’t resemble the one we saw all year, as Texas Tech lost star big man JT Toppin to a torn ACL in February. Toppin, who averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, was one of the most dominant players in the Big 12, and his ability to impact games was a big part of the reason that the Red Raiders finished 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (126.3). Well, without him, the Zips, who are outside the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (105.4), should have a clear gameplan. If Akron can apply pressure on Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, forcing them into tough shots and situations in which they need to give up the rock, the team should be good enough defensively to keep this game close. We know the Zips are going to score, as they’re 64th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (117.2), 14th in 3PT% (38.5), and 64th in 3PT Rate (45.1). Texas Tech could be going down early.
PARLAY: Gonzaga/Purdue To Reach Sweet 16 (+103)
When looking at the bracket, it stood out to me that Gonzaga and Purdue have pretty straightforward paths to the Sweet 16. The Zags are going to be playing their first two games pretty damn close to home, and they’ll be taking on Kennesaw State and then BYU, Texas, or NC State. I expect Gonzaga, a top-10 defensive team in the nation, to handle those opponents with ease. Meanwhile, Purdue is fresh off a Big Ten Tournament title, so the Boilermakers are hot at the right time. They also happen to have a very easy draw, as they’ll take on Queens before facing the winner of Miami-Missouri. Purdue should roll in that first game, and the second one could also get ugly. The Tigers probably don’t even belong in the field, and the Hurricanes aren’t as strong as their record.
Gonzaga To Reach Final Four (14-1) & Win NCAA Tournament (60-1)
If Gonzaga wins its first two games, things suddenly get very interesting. It sounds like Braden Huff, who is averaging 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and is one of the best paint scorers in the country, is targeting a second weekend return. If that’s true, the Zags will have the best frontcourt in the country, a highly talented two-way wing in Tyon Grant-Foster, and a crowded backcourt that has Mark Few covered with basically every skill he can possibly be looking for. The Zags remained a top-10 defensive team in Huff’s absence, and this is a team that played top-15 offense before his injury. If they’re really a top-15 group on both ends of the floor, that’s a statistical profile that gives you a shot.
I also don’t subscribe to the “Few can’t win the big one” stuff. You know who else couldn’t win the big one? Jay Wright, Scott Drew, and Tony Bennett. Then they did.
Adam Burke
North Dakota State +16.5 vs. Michigan State
The Summit League champs are getting a big head start in this game against a Michigan State team that has faltered on defense late in the season. This is also going to be a jump-shooting contest with a couple of teams that had low shot shares at the rim. Only 33.1% of Michigan State’s shot attempts came at the rim this season and they only allowed a shot share of 27.7%.
That’s fine for NDSU, as 63% of their shots were jumpers per Bart Torvik. They like to embrace the variance of a 3-point competition and I can’t fault them for that as a team that wins the turnover battle more often than not. We’ll see if Michigan State can improve upon their 302nd-ranked TO% stepping outside the Big Ten, where virtually nobody plays pressure defense or even tries to force takeaways.
Free throws could be in short supply in this game with a lot of jumpers as well. Both teams play at similar tempos, so that’s likely to cut the scoring down a little bit and that will cause Michigan State to be really efficient on both ends of the floor to win by 17+.
Vanderbilt To Reach The Sweet 16 (-110)
McNeese will probably be a trendy pick in the dreaded 12 vs. 5 matchup, but the Commodores are a double-digit favorite for a reason and this version of McNeese doesn’t shoot the ball nearly as well as last year’s did. Vandy would then be favored over either Nebraska or Troy. We’ll assume Nebraska given the spread and the fact that Troy has to get to the rim to be successful and the Cornhuskers had the third-lowest shot share against at the rim in the nation at just 24.6%.
Vanderbilt shoots over teams. They only had a 35.8% shot share on Close Twos that ranked 266th, so Nebraska packing in around the rim shouldn’t impact the Commodores too much on offense. Drawing a SEC opponent could probably continue some defensive regression for Nebraska as well, given that they held opponents under 30% from 3 for the season, but four of their last five opponents have made 10+ 3-pointers against them. I think the Commodores, as an under-seeded team, are really dangerous.
