American
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
When we went into the 2024 college football season with an expanded playoff, we all knew that it would create an opportunity for the Group of Five programs to have a seat at the table. What we didn’t know was whether or not the American Athletic Conference would have a team in the field of 12. Ultimately, the conference did not get included, but Army and Navy both had terrific seasons, as did Memphis and Tulane.
In the wild and crazy world of college football in present day, continuity and loyalty are in short supply. That is not the case for Army or Navy and perhaps had something to do with their 12-2 and 10-3 seasons, respectively. Army also won the American Championship Game over Tulane, though that may pale in comparison to losing the rivalry game to the Middies eight days later.
Even though the Green Wave came up short in their quest for a conference title, expectations remain high for Jon Sumrall’s team, even though there is a ton of production to replace on offense. Tulane isn’t the only American team lacking headline-grabbers from last season. Seth Henigan’s Memphis career is finally over and Army has to replace two 1,000-yard rushers in Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh, who combined for 42 rushing touchdowns.
Perhaps those losses open the door for UTSA, South Florida, and maybe an outside challenger like East Carolina or North Texas. Five teams that were in the bottom half of the American have new head coaches – Charlotte, FAU, Rice, Temple, and Tulsa. With uncertainty at those programs and a lot of statistical leaders gone from the top teams, the American looks high-variance and ripe for great betting opportunities this season.
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When we went into the 2024 college football season with an expanded playoff, we all knew that it would create an opportunity for the Group of Five programs to have a seat at the table. What we didn’t know was whether or not the American Athletic Conference would have a team in the field of 12. Ultimately, the conference did not get included, but Army and Navy both had terrific seasons, as did Memphis and Tulane.
In the wild and crazy world of college football in present day, continuity and loyalty are in short supply. That is not the case for Army or Navy and perhaps had something to do with their 12-2 and 10-3 seasons, respectively. Army also won the American Championship Game over Tulane, though that may pale in comparison to losing the rivalry game to the Middies eight days later.
Even though the Green Wave came up short in their quest for a conference title, expectations remain high for Jon Sumrall’s team, even though there is a ton of production to replace on offense. Tulane isn’t the only American team lacking headline-grabbers from last season. Seth Henigan’s Memphis career is finally over and Army has to replace two 1,000-yard rushers in Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh, who combined for 42 rushing touchdowns.
Perhaps those losses open the door for UTSA, South Florida, and maybe an outside challenger like East Carolina or North Texas. Five teams that were in the bottom half of the American have new head coaches – Charlotte, FAU, Rice, Temple, and Tulsa. With uncertainty at those programs and a lot of statistical leaders gone from the top teams, the American looks high-variance and ripe for great betting opportunities this season.
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Army Black Knights
Army rewrote the record books last season, becoming just the second service academy team to win 12 games in a season (Air Force, 1985) and they also joined a conference for the first time since 2004 and immediately won a conference championship. Usually, the only hardware at stake for the Black Knights has been the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Of course, if you asked the players in private, they’d probably trade that American crown for the highly coveted service academy bragging rights.
Offense
As mentioned in the conference overview, there are some programs that have a lot of production to replace and Army is one of them. QB Bryson Daily threw for over 1,000 yards last season and ranks 12th all-time for the program in that department. He also ran for 1,659 yards and had 32 rushing touchdowns. Daily was the first 1,000-yard passer for the program since Kelvin Hopkins Jr. back in 2018.
And Daily, again, a quarterback, was fourth in the nation in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns. Not only does Army have to find a way to replace a generational season from a signal caller, but top running back Kanye Udoh is also gone, taking 1,117 yards and 10 rushing scores with him. This is where not being able to utilize the transfer portal is problematic. Option offenses are exclusively about how the QB runs the show and nobody in that position group can do what Daily could. Not only are Daily and Udoh gone, but so are the team’s two best offensive tackles.
Defense
Defensively, the Black Knights allowed just 15.5 points per game and actually held opponents under an average of 300 yards per game. But, Army was able to control time of possession in games by moving the chains. The Black Knights faced the 23rd-fewest plays against last season and were the only team in the top 75 to play 14 games. They faced an average of just 56 plays per game against.
The Army offense averaged 34:39.36 of time of possession per CFBStats. The next closest team was Air Force at 33:50.50. So, this defense will get tested more this season without a dominant and efficient offense. And they’ll be missing top sack man Elo Modozie, who had 6.5 of the team’s 25 sacks. Kyle Lewis is also gone and he had four. The team’s leading tacklers, Andon Thomas and Kalib Fortner, are back, but the numbers will undoubtedly decline.
Outlook
Army plays Tulane and UTSA on the road, so those are two tough draws in conference games. The non-conference includes Kansas State and Navy, as that game is still classified as a non-conference matchup. The 7.5 win total for a team that won 12 games last season seems like a very fair number and I believe they’ll creep above it, but it will be a struggle.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Charlotte 49ers
The 49ers joined Conference USA in 2015 when they transitioned from FCS to FBS. They joined the American in 2023 as part of a significant conference realignment. In those two seasons, which were led by Biff Poggi, Charlotte went 8-16 and kept their streak of missing a bowl game intact. In a decade as a Division I-A member, Charlotte has one bowl appearance…and they lost by 22 points.
First-year head coach Tim Albin, who was 33-19 at Ohio and ended their MAC Championship drought that dated back to 1968, seems like a promising hire and has a clean slate to work with.
Offense
Two Power Four in-state QBs will fight for the starting gig, as Conner Harrell (UNC) and Grayson Loftis (Duke) could give the program its best QB play in quite some time. There are only two returning starters on offense, but for a team that tied for 100th in points per game and 84th in yards per play, that doesn’t seem like a bad thing. New OC Todd Fitch has spent the last four seasons with Ohio State and LSU as an offensive analyst, another promising hire on paper.
Albin prefers a mobile QB and a strong power running game, so we’ll see how quickly he can implement that in a conference where physical line play is in short supply. Of course, that’s true of the MAC, too, and his Ohio ground game averaged 214 rushing yards per contest last season.
Defense
The Charlotte offense was bad last season, but the defense was worse. This seems like the more problematic side of the ball after giving up over 35 points per game and 6.3 yards per play with just 18 sacks last season. Albin actually left his offensive coordinator in Athens as the new head coach and his defensive coordinator, but brought some of his other top assistants with him on the defensive side.
Like the offense, this is a bit of a blank slate. Five starters are back, including leading tackler Reid Williford, but 17 pass breakups are gone from Al-Ma’hi Ali and Dontae Balfour, plus leading sack man Chantz Williams has also moved on. Still, though, like the offense, the defense has a handful of Power Four transfers and the bar for improvement is rather low.
Outlook
The 49ers have a rough schedule, aside from home games against Monmouth, Rice, and Temple. Of course, they only need to win those three games to get Over 2.5 wins, which does seem doable. But, the margin for error is super limited, in that they’re a pretty hefty underdog in every other game. It’s an Over pick, but they better win those three.
Pick: Over 2.5 Wins
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East Carolina Pirates
Those looking for a long shot in the American may want to take a deep dive into the East Carolina roster. Second-year head coach Blake Harrell had a successful first season, as the Pirates went 8-5 and upset in-state Power Four opponent NC State in the Military Bowl as a touchdown pup. Like most G5 programs, ECU has a ton of production to replace, as programs with bigger NIL collectives and more prominent boosters poached the roster.
Harrell actually took over midseason when Mike Houston was fired and led a four-game winning streak before falling in the regular season finale to Navy. He brought in Josh Aldridge to replace him in his old role as DC and second-year OC John David Baker has a lot of intriguing pieces to work with, including a returning starter at QB.
Offense
Michigan State transfer Katin Houser has to hold off Vandy/Mississippi State/Northwestern transfer Mike Wright at QB, but the biggest threat to him is himself. Houser had 18 TD passes and over 2,000 yards, but also threw 11 interceptions in 245 pass attempts. With just one of his top three pass catchers back, Houser will have to develop a rapport with some new guys, including Oklahoma transfer and one-time top-10 WR recruit Jaquaize Pettaway.
Speaking of transfers, Penn State transfer London Montgomery appears most likely to replace 1,100-yard rusher Rahjai Harris and he did have 5.1 yards per pop in 71 rushing attempts. The ceiling for the Pirates could very well be defined by the rebuilt offensive line, which is missing three full-time starters from a unit that improved by 10 sacks allowed, 1.3 yards per carry, and 2.0 yards per play from 2023 to 2024.
Defense
Harrell was the defensive coordinator here from 2020-24. His 2020 unit gave up 35.4 PPG and 6.2 YPP. Since then, the defense has allowed a high of 27.3 PPG and 6.1 YPP, but the defenses the last two seasons have allowed 5.2 and 5.4 YPP, respectively. So, he did his job improving the defense and got to handpick his successor in Aldridge, who was most recently with Auburn.
The offense looks a lot more exciting than the defense at present, as Harrell only has two starters back and a ton of tackles for loss are gone, including 10 from Zakye Barker and 8.5 from Michael Edwards. The ECU offense was also 24th in third-down conversion rate, which helped the defense from getting overexposed. If the Pirates can exceed expectations, it will hinge on how quickly the defense gels.
Outlook
ECU opens the season with a NC State team seeking revenge before facing Campbell, Coastal Carolina, and BYU in non-conference action. Then they play Army and Tulane in their first two American games. That makes it tough to like an Over because they’re going to need to reel off a lot of late-season wins to get there.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Florida Atlantic Owls
All three Owls in the American got new head coaches this offseason, but it’s easy to say that Zach Kittley is the most interesting of the hires. The 33-year-old Kittley was a student assistant and a graduate assistant at Texas Tech from 2013-17 before immediately getting the offensive coordinator job at Houston Baptist. Three years later, he was the OC at Western Kentucky and then the OC back at his alma mater for the next three years.
The rapid rise for Kittley has included working with Patrick Mahomes and Bailey Zappe and now he has a team of his own, as the FAU program desperately needs a spark. The Owls went 5-4 and made a bowl game in 2020, but haven’t had more than five wins since Lane Kiffin’s final season in 2019.
Offense
Last season, Texas Tech was seventh in third-down conversion rate at just over 49%, fourth in points per game with 37.6, and 53rd in yards per play with 5.96. The Red Raiders were 14th in passing yards and fifth in pass attempts, so it’s clear what the most important position is for the Owls. The boys from Boca Raton collectively posted a 14/11 TD/INT ratio, but starter Cam Fancher is gone, so the bar is low. Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year and WKU transfer Caden Veltkamp knows the Kittley offense.
Veltkamp committed to his hometown Hilltoppers just as Kittley was heading to Texas Tech, so it was Kittley who recruited him. At 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, he’s a big kid and that’s a huge help with this type of pass-heavy offense. The receivers, including WKU transfer Easton Messer, look solid and the position with the most returning production is the offensive line.
Defense
Brett Dewhurst is going to have a tough job this season. The Owls only return two starters on defense and they didn’t get a ton of high-impact transfers on that side of the ball. If the offense doesn’t come together quickly, these Air Raid-style offenses can have quick possessions, thus putting a ton of pressure on the defense. This is Dewhurst’s first DC gig after serving as a position coach at Texas Tech, Texas State, and Mississippi State.
Experience is thin on this side of the ball and Dewhurst has predominantly worked with defensive backs, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see teams run the rock with a lot of success on the FAU D early on in the season. But, at least this team has the potential to be better and much more exciting to follow.
Outlook
This has all the makings of a transitional year, but the Veltkamp-Messer connection and the style of offense should put that side ahead of the curve, thus making FAU a decent Over bet early in the season. Defensively, it might be a pretty big struggle for a while and the Owls are just 4-12 in American play since making the move prior to the 2023 season.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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Memphis Tigers
It might be unfair to say that Ryan Silverfield’s seat got hot after 6-6 and 7-6 showings in 2021 and 2022, but those were not the types of performances that met Memphis standards. Well, the team is 21-5 over the last two seasons with bowl wins over Iowa State and West Virginia and the Tigers finished the 2024 campaign 24th in the AP Poll and 23rd in the Coaches’ Poll.
Armed with one of the stronger NIL budgets for a Group of Five program, substantial losses of personnel are a little bit easier to overcome. But, the Tigers, who have high hopes and aspirations for this season, still have a lot of new faces from a lot of different places and have to replace a second straight 10,000-yard passer going into 2025.
Offense
It felt like Seth Henigan was going to play at Memphis until the great asteroid hit the Earth and life as we know it ceased to exist. As it turned out, it was just a really long four years, as Henigan ended his college career as the Tigers’ all-time leading passer with more than 14,000 yards, usurping Brady White, who had well over 10,000 in three seasons from 2018-20. Not surprisingly, this is the biggest question mark for the Tigers.
But, it is not the only one. Mario Anderson ran for 1,362 yards with 18 rushing scores and backup Brandon Thomas had nine rushing TDs himself. The top five pass catchers, including Anderson, are all gone, with Roc Thomas and Demeer Blankumsee as the most notable names at that position. The offensive line is a mash-up of transfers. This is a tricky job for Silverfield and OC Tim Cramsey.
Defense
Guess what? The losses are very heavy on defense, too, as the Tigers bid adieu to their top eight tacklers and all but two guys with at least 16 tackles last season. Incredibly, even though there were a lot of productive players on this defense, and the team as a whole, DB Kobee Minor was the only Tiger drafted and he was Mr. Irrelevant at No. 257.
The Tigers return very few of their 25 sacks, virtually none of their tackles for loss or pass breakups, and enter the season with a massive rebuilding job for second-year DC Jordon Hankins. Deep pockets and reputation may have helped Memphis bring in a highly-rated transfer portal class, but major question marks are all over the roster.
Outlook
The saving grace this season may very well be the schedule. Memphis gets Tulane, USF, and Navy at home, avoids Army and UTSA, and Arkansas is the only daunting non-conference opponent. Even with the perception of the schedule on paper, not many in the market are buying Memphis and I tend to agree.
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
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Navy Midshipmen
Navy took the American by storm in 2015 by going 7-1 in conference play and 11-2 overall. The next year, Navy was 9-5 overall, but still 7-2 in league play. Then, the rest of the conference started to adjust. The 2019 season was an outlier, as the Middies went 11-2 overall and 7-1 in league play, but they had been .500 or worse in conference from 2017-23 outside of that lone season.
The Mids were anything but mid last season, as they went 10-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play, and also won the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy with a sweep of Air Force and Army. Third-year head coach Brian Newberry and innovative OC Drew Cronic bring back a ton of talent, as the service academies are largely immune to the transfer portal and I don’t think last year’s season serves as an outlier like the 2019 one did.
Offense
Unlike their arch-nemesis, Navy returns their QB and top RB. Army has to go into battle on the gridiron without Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh, but the Middies have Blake Horvath and Alex Tecza. Horvath was outstanding last season with 17 rushing touchdowns and 13 passing touchdowns. While 13 doesn’t seem like a big number, it tied a school record and this will be Year 2 of Cronic’s offense, which brought more balance to the play calling than we’re used to seeing.
Horvath also played through injury late in the season, rallying enough to score a lopsided 31-13 win over Army and then a win over Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl. The multiple looks in Cronic’s offense confused opposing defenses, as the Middies only surrendered 11 sacks and had over six yards per play after falling short of five yards per play in each of the previous four seasons.
Defense
Service academy defenses often benefit from the ball control of the offense. In this instance, Navy was +10 in TO margin with 24 takeaways and 17 interceptions. Newberry was the DC and got elevated to head coach and he promoted PJ Volker to DC. Volker has to replace his top three tacklers from last season, but this will be a disciplined unit like always.
Unfortunately, 11 of the 17 interceptions from 2024 are gone, including five from those top tacklers. Navy could be an Over team early in the season with the offense ahead of the defense. It is also worth noting that Navy was +14 in TO margin in American play, which is likely unsustainable for the upcoming season.
Outlook
With the offense virtually intact and a really sharp defensive mind in Newberry at the helm, the hype for Navy is deserved. As the second favorite to win the American and no games against Tulane or UTSA, another good season is in the cards. It also helps that Navy likely starts 7-0 with all their tough games late in the schedule, giving the defense time to come together.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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North Texas Mean Green
A valiant effort from Drew Mestemaker and a depleted roster in the First Responder Bowl against Texas State wasn’t enough to get the Mean Green their first winning season since 2017. They’ve also now lost seven bowl games in a row and are just 2-12 in program history. That makes it really hard to put too many expectations on the Dudes of Denton, but lately it feels like they are just a couple breaks away from breaking through.
The roster has a lot of holdovers, though the biggest contributors from last season on both sides of the ball are gone. Minor improvements in the per-play stats from 2023 to 2024 helped UNT to that sixth win and to a bowl game, but they’ll need to trend in that direction again to end the streak of losing seasons and be a long shot factor in the conference.
Offense
Calling Mestemaker’s effort “valiant” sort of sells it short. He hadn’t played QB since he was a freshman in high school, but threw for 448 yards in the 30-28 loss to Texas State. The Mean Green covered with ease as a 14-point underdog. Mestemaker is on the roster as a QB, but he’s likely to sit behind Miami transfer Reese Poffenbarger, who starred at Albany in 2023 before racking up a total of seven pass attempts behind Cam Ward last season.
For the Air Raid offense to function properly, the quarterback is kind of important. So, Eric Morris, who got Chandler Morris (no relation) to transfer in last season, will have another signal caller at the helm and very, very minimal FBS experience at the position. Last season’s top three wide receivers are gone, though Makenzie McGill may be an upgrade at running back with six yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns last season.
Defense
What’s really scary about North Texas is that the offense usually has to carry the team. This is a defense that allowed over 34 points per game and 6.2 yards per play last season. They’ve only managed 42 sacks in two seasons under Morris, but hope may be on the horizon. Sam Houston State DC Skyler Cassity looks like an excellent hire. The 31-year-old has had top-notch units with the Bearkats and also Abilene Christian in three years as a DC.
Personnel issues may be a hindrance, though. North Texas has been running a 3-3-5 or 3-4 depending on the look and will switch to a four-man front under Cassity. To give you an idea of how badly UNT wanted Cassity, he’ll make nearly $450,000 per season, which is pretty extreme for a middling G5 program. Cassity is missing last season’s top three tacklers, but he was likely to revamp the defense anyway and returning production from a bad unit doesn’t mean a whole lot.
Outlook
North Texas avoids Tulane and Memphis, and road trips to Army, Charlotte, UAB, and Rice aren’t all that daunting. I have no doubt that Cassity will improve the defense. If Poffenbarger can grasp the Morris scheme, this is the Mean Green team that will finally get over the hump. With the toughest conference games at home, I’m optimistic.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Rice Owls
Scott Abell has taken on the challenge of one of the most difficult jobs in the country. Rice, who shares the city of Houston with the university bearing the same name, should have an embarrassment of riches in the Lone Star State with the quality of high school football across Texas. But, this is a university with stricter academic requirements than most and the second-lowest enrollment in the conference..
Athletics aren’t prioritized at Rice to the same degree that they are in other places in Texas, let alone across the country. The Owls have two bowl berths in the last decade, one that they got as a result of their strong APR scores as a five-win team in 2022. They haven’t won a bowl game since 2014 and have only had enough wins to technically qualify for one since. Difficult job is an understatement.
Offense
This team is -37 in turnover margin over the last three seasons. Abell, who was the head coach at Davidson and made three FCS Playoff appearances, brought his run game coordinator, Vince Munch, as his OC. That’s because Rice is going to run the option. That should at least help the abysmal turnover margin numbers, but this is a massive overhaul to say the least.
Prior to his firing, Mike Bloomgren, who came over from Stanford, probably hoped to prioritize the run more than he did, but the Owls trailed a lot and were forced to go to the air. We’ll see how the new regime does with extremely unproven QBs on the roster and a dearth of skill-position talent. Most of last season’s top receivers are gone and so is leading rusher Dean Connors, who had 4.9 yards per carry.
Defense
The cupboard is less bare on defense. The Owls rotated a lot of guys in, so leading tackler Ty Morris only had 56 stops, but he’s back, along with three of the team’s top five tackles. Interestingly, Jon Kay was a holdover from the previous regime, as he was elevated from LB coach to DC. All in all, this was a solid unit last season with 33 sacks and just 5.0 yards per play allowed. Given the lack of help from the offense, that was good.
However, the defense needs to give the offense a boost. The Owls only had 12 takeaways last season, the same number as the 2023 season. Davidson’s offense clearly outpaced the defense on Abell’s watch, so it may be up to Kay to find more impact plays from his guys.
Outlook
I have long been an advocate of bad teams trying something new and Rice is trying something quite new. But, the American has seen the option with both Navy and Army, who have run it forever and will undoubtedly run it better and more efficiently. I think Year 1 is a brutal one for Abell and the Owls. They also face the five top teams in the American along with Louisiana and Houston.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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South Florida Bulls
NIL money seems to be flowing in Tampa, as Byrum Brown is back for another season and a couple of Power Four transfers at running back have USF in position to take a much-needed leap. It is Alex Golesh’s third year with the Bulls and back-to-back 7-6 campaigns have been acceptable, especially with bowl game wins as underdogs to Syracuse and San Jose State, but it’s time to be a factor in the conference again.
With a brutal non-conference schedule and a pretty manageable conference schedule, it might be an ugly start for a retooled roster, but it just might be worth the hard times to get to the finish line. At least that’s the hope for a team that hasn’t had a winning record in conference play since 2017.
Offense
Golesh is an offensive-minded guy from the esteemed coaching trees of Matt Campbell and Josh Heupel. Last season, he was missing the keys to the proverbial car, as Brown was limited to just 132 pass attempts and five starts. Bryce Archie, who is still on the roster, was undoubtedly a downgrade and had more interceptions (10) than TD passes (9). Brown, who is hoping to be revered when all is said and done like BJ Daniels, Matt Grothe, and Quinton Flowers in a long line of game-changing QBs, simply has to stay healthy.
Cartevious Norton (Iowa State) and Sam Franklin (Oklahoma) are really interesting replacements for Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright, and Ta’Ron Keith, who combined for 28 rushing touchdowns last season. Arguably, the bigger loss is Sean Atkins, who had 30.2% of the team’s receptions and 26.4% of the receiving yards.
Defense
Still, the offense is less of a worry than the defense in my mind. DC Todd Orlando saw mild improvement from this unit last season, going from 6.1 to 5.8 yards per play against and from 32.2 PPG to 29.8 PPG, plus an increase of nine sacks and a +7 turnover margin. Like the offensive side of the spectrum, there are a lot of defensive guys that were originally recruited to Power Four/Five teams that either started here last season or are incoming.
While the base numbers seem okay, the context of them is not. USF is 1-8 against teams with a winning record under Golesh and they were obliterated by some of those teams last season. The defense was torched by Alabama and Miami, which will happen, but Tulane also dropped 45 points. Even Rice had 35 points and 550 yards. UAB had 485 yards in a losing effort. Good performances against Bethune-Cookman and Charlotte skewed the numbers.
Outlook
It is important to keep in mind that USF will start 0-3 against Boise State, Florida, and Miami. So, they’ll need to go 7-2 the rest of the way to get you there. It is possible, but they’re at North Texas, Memphis, and Navy, and also host UTSA. The talent here is really strong, and among the better teams in the American, but I don’t see that type of run.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Temple Owls
The last of the Owls in the American, but like Florida Atlantic and Rice, Temple has a new head coach this season. All things considered, K.C. Keeler looks like a tremendous hire. He’s certainly an upgrade from position coach Stan Drayton, who was brought in mostly to tap into recruiting in the Philadelphia area. He went 3-9 in three straight seasons and was shown the door. Rod Carey had a strong display in his first season following Geoff Collins back in 2019, which, coincidentally, is the last time Temple made a bowl game or had a winning record.
Keeler is a winner. Sam Houston State was rough in Year 1 of their FBS transition, but the Bearkats went 10-3 last season. The 65-year-old Keeler is a Philly area native, so this is a homecoming for him in what may very well be his last head coaching spot. He was 97-39 at Sam Houston State, including a National Championship, and 86-52 at Delaware, so he, too, knows how to recruit the area.
Offense
Keeler and his staff have a major mess to clean up. Temple was 129th in yards per play last season on offense and 121st in points per game. Leading passer Evan Simon and leading rusher Terrez Worthy are both back, but they may both be backups to begin the season. Idaho recruit Gevani McCoy transferred to Oregon State and now finds himself across the country in Philly. Jay Ducker, who was with Keeler at Sam Houston, is likely to be atop the depth chart at RB.
The wide receivers are a problem area and the offensive line is in a state of flux, but Keeler has been coaching for more than 40 years and made a solid hire with Montana State’s former OC Tyler Walker.
Defense
The formula for being a bad team is pretty simple and Temple checked basically every box, including the turnover margin one. Under Drayton, Temple was -41 in TO margin, including -10 last season. The Owls defense had just five takeaways back in 2023, a number that tripled in 2024, but now they’ll start over again on that front.
Former Rice DC Brian Smith has a blank slate. Three starters are back, none of them really of consequence, and he’ll be trying to find negative plays. The Owls had just 14 sacks last season and were -23 in sack differential. After allowing 5.5 yards per carry last year and 6.1 yards per play, a blank slate is probably a good thing.
Outlook
Keeler certainly has patience and plenty of experience, two things badly needed in this Temple program. The schedule isn’t awful, but those taking Over 3.5 badly need the UMass and Howard games to open the season to even have a shot. I like Keeler, but this is a big rebuilding job.
Pick: Under 3.5 Wins
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Tulane Green Wave
When the announcement about the College Football Playoff expansion came down, Tulane was one of the teams that had a path to being the Group of Five representative. Games against Kansas State and Oklahoma were golden opportunities to get a noteworthy win on top of a conference championship. Well, Tulane lost them both, but still had an outside shot at a playoff spot until losing at home to Memphis just before losing to Army for the American Championship.
It was a disappointing end to what appeared to be a very promising season before it got started. Tulane wound up 9-5 for first-year head coach Jon Sumrall. Like most G5 programs, some key positions need to be filled going into this season. Makhi Hughes and Darian Mensah are the biggest ones, as Tulane heads into the season with a chance at a CFP berth.
Offense
Hughes had over 1,400 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns last season. Mario Williams was a 1,000-yard receiver with 60 grabs, 25 more than anybody else. Good offenses can replace skill guys and Tulane is a good offense with Sumrall and second-year OC Joe Craddock, who held the same role under Sumrall at Troy. There are Power Four transfers ready to step in. Somebody usually finds a way to produce.
What is far less clear is who will fill Mensah’s shoes at quarterback. Sumrall has some decent options with Big Ten transfers Brendan Sullivan (Iowa) and Donovan Leary (Illinois), plus Kadin Semonza, who was pretty good for a bad Ball State team last season. Mensah was actually a surprise starter last year, so Sumrall could ride with any of those guys at the outset or recently-acquired Jake Retzlaff from BYU. The offensive line looks quite good again after allowing just 18 sacks last year.
Defense
Evaluating Greg Gasparato’s defense is tricky. Tulane gave up 33+ points to Kansas State, Oklahoma, Louisiana, North Texas, Memphis, Army, and Florida. But, they also allowed 10 or fewer points six times. It was a feast or famine unit that feasted on the dregs of the conference and a FCS opponent. The game against Navy was played primarily without Blake Horvath, so that changed the complexion of everything.
The losses on defense are not as substantial as the ones on offense, but Tulane’s scoring average of 20.6 PPG and 5.3 YPP were a little bit misleading. Also, of the losses, Tulane did lose two NFL draft picks on the back end, so while most of the front seven is intact, the back seven is an area of emphasis.
Outlook
Tulane plays both UTSA and Memphis on the road in consecutive weeks, so if they win the American, they absolutely will have earned it. They are the favorite, but I’m not sure that they should be. There’s plenty of talent on the roster and this may be the team with the highest ceiling, so I’ll say Over 8.5 wins, but would not bet it with uncertainty at key positions.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Another reset is in store at Tulsa, the school with the smallest enrollment in the American. The Golden Hurricane have their second coach in three seasons, as Kevin Wilson did not work out and now Tre Lamb takes over the program. Philip Montgomery went 43-53 over his eight seasons, including a 10-3 campaign back in 2016, but that feels like an eternity ago.
If the pattern holds, Tulsa will win just two games this season, going 5-7, 4-8, and 3-9 over the last three seasons. It shouldn’t, as Lamb has been a master at turning programs around, as Gardner-Webb improved quickly on his watch and his one season at East Tennessee State was a success at 7-5. That said, you still need players and Lamb doesn’t have a lot of them.
Offense
Kirk Francis led the team in completions, pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season and seems like he’ll hold the job as an incumbent, but Lamb got Baylor Hayes to transfer in from ETSU, so he could be in the mix early and often. Even with some meager NIL funds, there are a handful of Power Four transfers at the skill positions, including Sevion Morrison (Kansas) at RB and Mekhi Miller (Missouri) and Micah Tease (Texas A&M) at WR.
After he was hired, Lamb acknowledged his Air Raid background with the media, but discussed running a spread and even playing with some tempo. He’ll serve as his own play caller, though Brad Robbins is the OC. The 35-year-old ruffled some feathers with how quickly he left ETSU and seemed extremely blunt with reporters about Tulsa’s position battles and talent level, so we’ll see how the team comes together.
Defense
Lamb brought his Buccaneers and Bulldogs DC, Josh Reardon, with him to red dirt country. The offense wasn’t very good last season, but the defense was objectively horrendous. Tulsa allowed over 42 points per game and more than seven yards per play. They were 134th out of 134 teams in yards per play allowed and 133rd out of 134 in scoring defense. Good luck running tempo, coach!
The team’s top three players in tackles for loss all left. This is a group that generated just 19 sacks and most of those are out the door as well. It wasn’t quite as bad as it ended up last season, as the team quit on Wilson and gave up 223 points and 8.2 YPP over the final four games. But, Tulsa still hasn’t had a good defense since the 2020 season and it will take a lot to have one this year.
Outlook
Lamb seems to have very high expectations right away in Year 1. As he should. ETSU went 7-5 with four losses by 19 combined points to FCS opponents and a loss to Appalachian State. It’s not like they were a good team before he got there. So, we’ll see. The win total hinges on upsets, as Tulsa will only be favored twice as of now.
Pick: Under 2.5 Wins
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UAB Blazers
It is hard to believe that it was a decade ago when UAB players, coaches, boosters, and the community were forced to rally together to save the football program. Bill Clark was hired in 2014 and stuck it out through two years of not playing games, only to be one of the nation’s best stories for the next five seasons with a 43-20 record.
OC Bryant Vincent took over when Clark stepped aside due to medical issues in 2022 and led a 7-6 season with the interim tag. UAB then opted to go in a different direction despite lots of player support for Vincent. Trent Dilfer is 7-17 in two seasons and opens the 2025 season on one of the hottest seats in the country, as this looks like a failed experiment and something that turned a Group of Five stalwart into merely an afterthought.
Offense
It isn’t like Dilfer doesn’t know ball. As we all know, he played 17 years across college and the NFL and then became an analyst before becoming the head coach at Lipscomb Academy in Tennessee. He was 44-10 there, but college football is a little bit different. The defense stands out as being worse on paper, but this is an inexplosive, vanilla offense. QB Jacob Zeno was second in the nation in completion percentage among QBs with at least 55 pass attempts in 2023. UAB was just 51st in points per game.
Last season, Florida transfer Jalen Kitna got more of the work and posted a 17/11 TD/INT ratio with a 62% completion rate. He’s a big pocket presence at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds and was a top-40 recruit at his position coming out of high school. But, his top two WR are gone now and UAB doesn’t have a lot of size there. The top two rushers are also gone. So are most of the experienced offensive linemen.
Defense
In an effort to fix the defense – and probably save his job – Dilfer tabbed former Air Force DC Steve Russ to run that beleaguered unit. UAB has allowed 36.9 and 34.3 PPG in the Dilfer era and went from 21 takeaways down to just 13. It is worth pointing out that Tulane scored 71 points on UAB in a game last season, so the stats don’t seem quite as bad if you consider that outrageous outlier.
Still, there isn’t a lot to build from here, as only two guys with at least 30 tackles are back. Of course, with a defense that poor, returning production is kind of an oxymoron, unless there was a major standout or two. There really wasn’t one, so Russ has basically a brand new defense to whip into shape.
Outlook
Dilfer keeping this job might take a minor miracle, especially because the “easiest” games on paper for UAB are all on the road at UConn, Rice, and Tulsa. Even though a 2-1 start is possible, finding three more wins on the schedule is an arduous task and the second bye is well-timed to let Dilfer go.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
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UTSA Roadrunners
Jeff Traylor took over the UTSA football program in 2020, which was a pretty tough time to take over a team. Traylor immediately raised the bar with a 7-5 season and then nearly put the bar out of reach with a 12-2 follow-up. In all, Traylor has stellar records at home and late in the season when he has everything precisely where he wants it with his roster. After all, this was a team that had only beaten Kennesaw State and Houston Christian before winning four of their final six games.
But, last year’s UTSA team wasn’t buttoned up. Their 46-45 loss to Tulsa was proof of that, as the Roadrunners led 35-7 at halftime and 42-24 after three quarters. Tulsa scored 14 points in the final 2:26 and that was a terrible Golden Hurricane team. It was also as clear of a sign as possible to get better players on defense and Traylor did exactly that.
Offense
Before we get to the rebuilt defense, which only returns two starters, let’s look at the offense because it could be what separates the Roadrunners from the rest of the American. Owen McCown is back after throwing for over 3,400 yards and the Roadrunners also return their top two rushers and nearly all of their top receivers. So many other teams, especially near the top of the odds board, have to replace key pieces and parts on offense. UTSA does not.
This was a group that scored over 30 points per game on the whole and 37 PPG in conference action with over six yards per play. Early-season drubbings by Texas State and Texas hurt the greater sample size, but UTSA was very strong in conference play and should be yet again.
Defense
The defense really faltered last season. Traylor gave a vote of confidence to DC Jess Loepp and the program hit the portal very hard. Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks) and Martavius French (16 TFL) are two immense losses, but the rest of the defense was pretty pedestrian on the whole. With 88 sacks over the last two seasons, Loepp knows how to find pass rushers and pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Loepp’s defenses have mostly been very stout against the run, but the pass has presented some problems in terms of coverage breakdowns and big plays. Zah Frazier (6 INT) is a big loss, but the portal has provided a lot more depth for the Roadrunners, who were less active in trying to improve last year on this side of the ball.
Outlook
This should be the favorite to win the American. UTSA avoids Memphis and Navy, gets Tulane at home, and probably has the conference’s top QB. UTSA just didn’t finish games last year, blowing fourth-quarter leads against Tulsa, Army, and Rice (with four seconds left). They’re deeper and better this year.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
