Analyzing college football coaching changes for 2023
The 2023 college football season will feature 23 new head coaches at schools across the country, 14 of whom will be taking the lead role on programs for a full season for the first time. As I start my month-long dig into everything college football prepping for the 2023 campaign, my first subject matter is the coaching changes. They are always impactful on teams’ prospects for a season, particularly early on. Most VSiN readers will recognize that coaching changes play a huge role in formulating my College Football Stability Scores prior to each season.
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About a month or so ago on VSiN.com, I put together a piece detailing the performance trends of rookie and veteran NFL head coaches in their first seasons with new teams. In that article, I found that most of the rookie coaches over the last decade managed to improve their teams’ won-lost records in their first season while the experienced guys won only about 40% of their games. I’ll have more numbers regarding this for college football in a few weeks when I look at carryover systems, but I can tell you that the success rate at the college level for coaching changes is nowhere near as high as NFL. There are a few reasons for this, with instability being the primary one. A head coach leaving in college football typically means new coordinators and new systems on both sides of the ball. This is a lot for younger players to overcome in a short time.
Typically, coaching changes at the college level are a result of just a few possibilities. First, poor performance. In most cases, this comes from a shortage of talent. Building a better overall talent level takes time for new coaches. Second, a highly successful coach leaves for a bigger, more established program. This is a painful one for all the Group of 5 teams each year, and re-establishing the magic can prove difficult for the replacement. Third, longtime coaches simply retire, leaving a huge void in the leadership position, as a program naturally grows accustomed to certain routines, and change is never easy nor always accepted willingly. In all three of these cases, you can see how finding that lightning in a bottle in a coach’s first year can be a challenge. This is opposed to the NFL, where teams are more talent-equal, and a breath of fresh air can make a world of difference.
With that in mind, let’s run through the 23 different head coaching changes that have occurred since the conclusion of last season at the FBS level. I’ll try to provide my insights as well as a prediction on how that coach and program might fare in 2023, with a particular focus on the DraftKings season win total props. Following the breakdown of the new head coaches, you’ll find a list showing all of the coordinator changes across the country for 2023 as well.
Arizona State
Conference: Pac-12
New Head Coach: Kenny Dillingham
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Herm Edwards – 6 seasons
2022 Record: 3-9 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Things got stale at Arizona State in Herm Edwards era, and there was talk of utter chaos behind the scenes regarding preparation level and players buying in. Obviously, this was a prudent time to make a coaching change. Tempe will always be a rich environment for being able to recruit kids so I wouldn’t suspect that this program will be down for long. Kenny Dillingham takes over in 2023 after serving last season as Oregon’s OC. He was a Sun Devils offensive assistant back in 2014 and 2015 and has served on staffs at four different schools since.
Better or worse in ’23: ASU was 3-9 last year, and DraftKings has set the win-total prop for this season at 5. Naturally, that means the experts think the Sun Devils will be better. There are 12 total starters back for Dillingham, and he should have an interesting quarterback situation to build on, a room that includes Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne. While I don’t think ASU will be playing in a bowl game at the end of the ’23 season, they should be better if for no other reason than the toxicity is gone.
Auburn
Conference: SEC
New Head Coach: Hugh Freeze
Career Record: 82-43
Former Head Coach: Bryan Harsin – 2 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Like Arizona State, the scene in the Auburn football program got rather ugly in Bryan Harsin’s two seasons. There were on- and off-the-field problems that weren’t going away until a change was made. The Tigers made a pretty intriguing hire in luring Hugh Freeze away from Liberty, where he had brought the Flames from virtual nothingness to a perennial bowl squad with a very entertaining style of play. Other than perhaps QB Bo Nix in ’21, there was little that was entertaining in watching Auburn play over the last two years.
Better or worse in ’23: Freeze served as head coach at Ole Miss from 2012-16 so he is familiar with the rigors that are the SEC West Division. Auburn usually recruits very well, and Freeze should improve on this, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. DraftKings calls for 6.5 wins, which would be an improvement of 1.5 games. There are just 12 starters back, and Freeze seems to be favoring Michigan State transfer Peyton Thorne at the key QB position. I lean UNDER the 6.5.
Charlotte
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Biff Poggi
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Will Healy – 4 seasons
2022 Record: 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: There were some reasonably high expectations for Charlotte last season, returning 14 starters from the 2021 team that finished 5-7. That group included multi-year starter Chris Reynolds at quarterback. While he was not as good as in ’21, he was far from the biggest problem. The defense allowed a tick under 40 points per game, including 56+ three times, and the 49ers won just three games. Exit Will Healy and insert Biff Poggi, who comes over from Michigan where he served as associate head coach over the last two years to Jim Harbaugh.
Better or worse in ’23: Poggi was clearly critical to Michigan’s success as the Wolverines made the CFP in both years he served there. It will be interesting to see how he is able to guide a situation that is a complete rebuild. QB Reynolds was a stabilizing factor while with the 49ers, but he is no longer there. Look for this Charlotte team to be one of the most unstable programs out of the gate in ’23.
Cincinnati
Conference: Big 12
New Head Coach: Scott Satterfield
Career Record: 72-40
Former Head Coach: Luke Fickell – 6 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 3-9-1 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Luke Fickell led the Cincinnati program to new heights in his six-year tenure, including a CFP berth following the ’21 season. The impact of his departure and the void left by many of his former players choosing to leave with him will be great. Left to pick up the pieces is Scott Satterfield, who comes over after four years at Louisville. He was able to spend some time with the Bearcats during bowl season however so he won’t be starting completely fresh.
Better or worse in ’23: The DraftKings win prop for Cincy in ’23 is just 5.5 as it heads into its first season of Big 12 play. The last season they fell below that number was in 2017, Fickell’s first season, when they went 4-8. Since then, the program has averaged 10.6 wins per season. Even with the conference change, that in itself is a testament to how much the experts think this program will fall this season. While the number of returning players is low, Satterfield will have an experienced QB back in ASU transfer Emory Jones. Still, get it out of your head now if you’re thinking this is the same Cincinnati team that has been ruling the AAC lately.
Coastal Carolina
Conference: Sun Belt
New Head Coach: Tim Beck
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell – 4 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 4-9 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Tim Beck has served as an assistant offensive coach at six different FBS schools dating back to ’91, but this will be his first shot at a top job. It won’t be an easy one, as he takes over a Coastal Carolina program that blossomed under Jamey Chadwell, winning 31 games against just seven losses over the last three years. Beck comes over from NC State, where he was OC and QB coach, so he is familiar with the Carolina area and should do fairly well over time in recruiting.
Better or worse in ’23: Beck got a huge early gift when three-year starting quarterback Grayson McCall pulled his name from the transfer portal and decided to stay with the Chanticleers for another season. He has carried the offense for three seasons, accumulating an amazing 77-8 TD-Int ratio, and he has done it with completely experienced rosters beside him or working with newbies. The offense will be fine. The defense is where the questions lie, as that unit allowed 31+ points per game last season, a decline of over 10 points per game. CCU should still be very competitive in the Sun Belt, but they will have to do it with scoring and will be a play against team early because of it.
Colorado
Conference: Pac-12
New Head Coach: Deion Sanders
Career Record: 0-0 in FBS
Former Head Coach: Karl Dorrell – 3 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 2-10 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Coach Prime made a name for himself by resurrecting the football program at FCS Jackson State, doing it by stealing top talent from some of college football’s elite teams. He has always done things with theatrics as well, so what has happened at Colorado since his hiring was not unexpected. It has literally been “showtime” since he arrived in Boulder, but not always for the good. The Buffaloes program has brought in a lot of talent not seen around those parts for decades, but in the process has blown up any level of transitional stability that may have been in place. Regardless of what happens in 2023, this will be a fun situation to watch.
Better or worse in ’23: The Colorado season win total is 3.5 according to DraftKings. That would be an improvement of 2.5 wins off the 2022 season. Regardless of where they got that number from, in my opinion, it is a total guess. It seems impossible at this point to have any idea of how good of a coach Sanders will be in the Pac-12, how much chemistry this completely rebuilt roster will have, and how long the enthusiasm for the new Buffaloes will last. Undeniably the roster is better, and there is a ton of energy surrounding the program, both from fans and the TV networks apparently. Will a thumping at TCU in the opener send things swirling on opening day? Could a competitive effort (or massive upset win) build the hype beyond comprehension? If I had to bet, I’d lean Over on the 3.5 wins, but don’t hold me to it.
Florida Atlantic
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Tom Herman
Career Record: 54-22
Former Head Coach: Willie Taggart – 3 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Admittedly, I have never been a big Willie Taggert fan, and almost as if I predicted three years ago, he was never able to fill the shoes of Lane Kiffin at FAU. Kiffin left him the remnants of a program that was 11-3 in 2019, and Taggert proceeded to win five games in each of the next three years. That said, I am a big fan of the new hire by the Owls. Tom Herman made a name for himself with Houston, going 22-5 in two seasons there. He didn’t live up to the billing at Texas, but in my opinion, there are very few coaches capable of doing that. He is back in familiar surroundings now as FAU sets sail in its first season in the American Conference. Boca Raton is a great place to recruit, and Herman should do well.
Better or worse in ’23: For as much as I like the hiring of Herman long-term, this will be a highly unstable situation to start the season. Not only are the Owls bringing back relatively few starters, including a new quarterback, but they also have a pair of new coordinators and are switching to a new conference. All of this adds up to what could be a rebuilding situation in ’23. Play against, perhaps all season long.
Kent State
Conference: MAC
New Head Coach: Kenni Burns
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Sean Lewis – 6 seasons
2022 Record: 5-7 SU & ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Kent State was 5-7 last year following up a 7-7 season in ’21. The Golden Flashes lost three games by seven points or less and did this while breaking in a new quarterback in Collin Schlee, who took over for multi-year starter Dustin Crum. In other words, the team remained competitive last season and the program expected to do so again in ’23. That is until Head Coach Sean Lewis tendered his resignation to pursue the OC job for Deion Sanders at Colorado, and QB Schlee packed his bags and left for UCLA via the transfer portal. Kenni Burns takes over the program after spending the last four years as Associate Head Coach/Running Backs Coach at Minnesota.
Better or worse in ’23: The Golden Flashes seemed to be poised to become a consistent contender in the MAC under Lewis, as they had gone 22-21 in four years and proved to be one of the league’s more potent offenses in that span. That is relatively all flushed now with Lewis gone. Burns has a tough job to do here, particularly in his first season. Almost impossible to see this team be better in ’23.
Liberty
Conference: C-USA
New Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell
Career Record: 39-22
Former Head Coach: Hugh Freeze – 4 seasons
2022 Record: 8-5 SU & 6-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Other than cashing a bigger paycheck, it’s hard to get behind Jamey Chadwell choosing to leave Coastal Carolina in favor of Liberty. Yes, it’s a new challenge, and yes, the Flames are making the leap from an Independent program to Conference USA, but how could this not be considered at best a lateral move? After his success with CCU, I would have expected a bigger promotion to draw him away. That said, there are big shoes to fill here, as Freeze won at least eight games in all four seasons at Liberty.
Better or worse in ’23: The Flames’ offense plummeted to a six-year low 27.5 points per game last season after averaging at least 32 points per game since, so perhaps Freeze knew the time was right to move on. Projected QB Johnathan Bennett was good, not great in his starts last year and figures to get the nod again this year. As usual, however, Liberty plays one of the weakest schedules in the country once again, and the won-lost record might not be impacted that greatly by the changeover. However, I wouldn’t be comfortable laying points with Chadwell’s club early in the season.
Louisville
Conference: ACC
New Head Coach: Jeff Brohm
Career Record: 65-44
Former Head Coach: Scott Satterfield – 4 seasons
2022 Record: 8-5 SU & ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Jeff Brohm is an almost ideal hire at Louisville, returning to the school where he starred as a quarterback in the early 90s. Since then, he has made coaching stops at six different schools, including Louisville to start his career as an assistant from ’03 to ’08. This will be his third different head coaching gig, and his teams at Western Kentucky and Purdue were well-known for their offensive explosiveness. Unless this turns out to be a “Scott Frost returning to Nebraska scenario,” it’s hard to see Brohm not doing well at his alma mater.
Better or worse in ’23: Brohm takes over a program that is in pretty good shape coming off an 8-5 campaign. However, things will look much different going forward as the program moves on from multi-talented QB Malik Cunnigham, who started the last four years as a run/pass threat. The new attack will be more pro-style, and fortunately, Brohm brings his starting quarterback at Purdue over with him in Jack Plummer. He threw 47 TDs versus 19 interceptions for the Boilermakers and is a big, strong kid. The Cardinals are projected to eight wins by DraftKings, and it looks to be a very sharp number. If anything, I might lean slightly Under due to the sizeable offensive transition.
Mississippi State
Conference: SEC
New Head Coach: Zach Arnett
Career Record: 1-0
Former Head Coach: Mike Leach – 3 seasons
2022 Record: 9-4 SU & 7-5-1 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: The passing of Mike Leach left a huge void in the Mississippi State program, and college football for that matter. The unenviable job of replacing Leach this past December fell to Zach Arnett, who although a defensive-oriented coach, had bled Bulldog-red for the last three seasons as the DC. The team responded well to Arnett by beating Illinois in its bowl game, so I wouldn’t expect any major change in this program for ’23.
Better or worse in ’23: Arnett gets half of his starters back from the nine-win team of 2022, including QB Will Rogers, so it should be all systems go in this case. That said, only four of the starters back are on defense, and that unit was pretty sound last year, allowing 23.0 points per game, a four-year best, while holding five foes to 17 points or fewer. This has to be why DraftKings expects just 6.5 wins from MSU in ’23. In my opinion, it’s far easier to rebuild quickly on that side of the ball, and thus I’ll project an Over for this team in ’23. The other coaching changes show far more instability than this one.
Navy
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Brian Newberry
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo – 16 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 7-5 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: You have to go back 20 years to the last time that Navy won just 11 games or fewer in a three-year span. It was time for change for the Midshipmen although anyone expecting a grandiose transition will have to modify their expectations. The program has named its former Defensive Coordinator Brian Newberry as the replacement for Ken Niumatalolo, who was here for 16 seasons.
Better or worse in ’23: Newberry has indicated the Navy will keep the option attack as its modus operandi moving forward but he would like new Offensive Coordinator Grant Chestnut (Kennesaw St OC) to help the offense “evolve.” The stability of the system, the program, and its athletes helps in cases of coaching changes at places like Navy. Off back-to-back 4-8 seasons, there isn’t a whole lot of reason to suspect that this year’s team will be much better or worse than its predecessors. Any positive or negative fluctuation would likely come from an unexpected win or loss early. As always, avenging the Army loss will be the top priority.
Nebraska
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: Matt Rhule
Career Record: 47-43
Former Head Coach: Scott Frost – 5 seasons
2022 Record: 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: The Scott Frost era at Nebraska turned out to be an utter disappointment after being introduced with such hope and hype five years ago. The Cornhuskers never won more than five games in the tenure of Frost, despite noteworthy expectations. The new hire, Matt Rhule, hasn’t been as glorified. However, it should produce better results, as Rhule enjoyed great success with Baylor before a failed try in the NFL with Carolina. While at Baylor, he took a program in big trouble both on and off the field and went from 1-11 to 11-3 in just two seasons.
Better or worse in ’23: DraftKings puts Nebraska’s win total for 2023 at six, somewhat surprising considering that record would land the Cornhuskers in a bowl game for the first time since 2016. Is the fresh start under Rhule enough to make that big of a difference? It could be. Nebraska has been a top 30-type of recruiting program over the last five years, and there figures to be an experienced QB under center in dual-threat Jeff Sims, who started 23 games with Georgia Tech. In all, expect about 14 starters returning. The Big Ten West is also very winnable once again for any team that catches fire. I’ll take the bait on this one and go Over, figuring the Cornhuskers will benefit from being a bit less under the radar this season.
North Texas
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Eric Morris
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Seth Littrell – 7 seasons
2022 Record: 7-7 SU & 8-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: With the program seemingly stuck in neutral, North Texas fired Head Coach Seth Littrell this past December. For the past four seasons, he has been unable to replicate the success he had driven in 2017 and 2018. A lot of that was using recruits from the previous regime, however, and Littrell’s leadership didn’t take the program any higher. With a step-up move to the American Conference in 2023, UNT starts fresh with Eric Morris, who has helped lead high-powered offenses at schools like Texas Tech, Incarnate Word, and Washington State over the last decade or so in various roles. This will be his first FBS head coaching job.
Better or worse in ’23: The first year(s) of Morris’ assignment at North Texas are going to be a challenge. Not only is the team taking a step up in play by joining the American Conference, but they will also be without QB Austin Aune, who after starting three seasons for the Mean Green, opted for the NFL draft after 2022 and landed with the Atlanta Falcons. There was some significant optimism surrounding this program last year, rightfully there is not as much heading into ’23. I don’t expect UNT to be in position for a bowl bid again this December.
Northwestern
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: David Braun
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald – 17 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: The firing of Pat Fitzgerald happened fast and happened late. In light of a hazing scandal, the university fired its 17-year head coach for what it deemed to be a broken culture. That might explain a lot of what happened on the field last year, as clearly something was broken. You have to wonder if the behavior was there all along but the 4-20 record over the last two seasons is what tipped things over the scale. In any case, Fitzgerald is replaced for 2023 on an interim basis by the man he hired to be defensive coordinator this season, David Braun, who came over from the DC position at North Dakota State. He was part of two national titles over the four years he spent in Fargo.
Better or worse in ’23: It’s almost impossible to get worse than 1-11 so I would expect that the Wildcats may have bottomed out last season. They will be riding an 11-game losing skid into their opener at Rutgers on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. This team in turmoil will be front & center in front of the country on a national TV broadcast. There are 12 starters back for ’23, including QB Ryan Hilinski, who was serviceable in the position last fall. The defense also only allowed 28.3 PPG, not typical for a one-win club. I can see at least three winnable games on the schedule and possibly more if this bunch can put the negative drama behind it.
Purdue
Conference: Big Ten
New Head Coach: Ryan Walters
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jeff Brohm – 6 seasons
2022 Record: 8-6 SU & 5-9 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Purdue fans probably feel like they missed out on a great window of opportunity for success under Jeff Brohm. The offenses were explosive, there was solid talent at quarterback, and the Big Ten West Division has seemingly been there for the taking for most of the last five years. Only last year did the Boilermakers make it to Indianapolis for the first time to play for a conference title. They proved to be competitive in the game as well, putting up 456 yards of offense on Michigan. Moving forward, it will be a big change, however, as the program moves on from the offensive-minded Brohm to Eric Morris, who has served as a defensive coordinator at Missouri, and most recently Illinois, since 2016.
Better or worse in ’23: Morris gets only 11 starters back, third-fewest in the Big Ten. While he is a defensive guy, he will rely on the prowess of new OC Graham Harrell to keep the offense firing. And while QB Aiden O’Connell has moved on to the NFL, the cupboard isn’t completely bare, as Texas transfer and former highly-regarded recruit Hudson Card has set himself apart in spring and figures to be the new starter. Still, there is a reason that transitioning to a new head coach and new systems is a challenge and the 2023 season at Purdue figures to be a step back. The DK total is set at 5.5, meaning a third straight bowl bid is unlikely. I agree. Lean Under.
South Florida
Conference: American Athletic
New Head Coach: Alex Golesh
Career Record: 0-0
Former Head Coach: Jeff Scott – 3 seasons
2022 Record: 1-11 SU & 5-7 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Jeff Scott presided over the three worst seasons in South Florida football history, with the team winning just four games in his tenure. It has been a brutal run, and I can’t think of another program at this point that was in more need of a fresh start. With a vastly different, and probably weaker, AAC lined up for 2023, new head coach Alex Golesh has a chance to immediately improve his team’s record, even if they aren’t measurably better.
Better or worse in ’23: Golesh served as the OC at Tennessee over the last two seasons and earned a shot at a first head coaching job by leading the Vols offense to explosive numbers. In his first season at UT, the offense went from 21.5 points per game to 39.3 points per game. Talk about making a difference. Can he have that type of impact at USF? Probably, but only if he can change things on the defensive side of the ball. The 2023 Bulls couldn’t be nearly as bad as last season when they allowed nine of 12 opponents to score 40+ points. The offense is in good shape with QB Gerry Bohanon returning. That group scored 31.7 points per game in the second half of the season. For a variety of reasons, I think things will be a little better for USF this fall.
Stanford
Conference: Pac-12 &nb
