Army Black Knights:

Army is a conference member for the first time since 2004, as the Black Knights spent seven years in Conference USA. They were Independent from 1890-1997 before joining C-USA and then went Independent again in 2005. Even though Navy joined the AAC in 2015, the Army-Navy Game will still be considered a non-conference affair.

Obviously this write-up is about Army, but you cannot talk about the Black Knights in this conference without thinking about the trendline for the Middies. Navy hired Paul Johnson in 2002 and went 2-10 as he installed the triple-option. From 2003-14, Navy won at least eight games in 11 of 12 seasons, including the first seven under Ken Niumatalolo.

 

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The Middies had a conference record of 7-1 in each of their first two seasons in the AAC. They have finished with a winning record in conference play in just one of the last seven. Now that teams see the option regularly, they’ve defended it more effectively and Army won’t have the luxury that Navy had coming in cold.

Offense

Army will go back to the traditional, under-center option after one year away from it. New OC Cody Worley has been with the program since 2020 coaching quarterbacks and takes over after one year of Drew Thatcher running the show from the shotgun. Worley was the run game coordinator last season as well, so we should expect to see Army’s ground-and-pound more frequently.

Air Force led the service academies in rushing yards per carry by a wide margin, with Army second with 4.35 and Navy third with 4.26. QB Bryson Daily ran for 901 yards and seven touchdowns on 215 carries. No other back had more than 99, but Kanye Udoh is back after averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

Defense

It is hard to analyze defensive performance for service academies because the offense carries the time of possession and the defensive lines are often undersized. Army allowed 5.9 yards per play last season, but faced the seventh-fewest defensive plays. Maybe a better indicator is that Army was 34th in total yardage allowed, despite the limited number of snaps.

After facing the 103rd-ranked schedule per Jeff Sagarin, Army steps up in a big way in terms of opposing offenses this year.

Outlook

Army does avoid Memphis and Tulane, yet making a bowl game feels like a stretch. They do play Notre Dame in non-conference and actually only play three true road games. They’ll play in Philly, the Bronx, and Foxborough this season. My numbers say 5.03 wins and I think 6-6 is a big stretch.

Pick: Under 6 Wins

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