Army-Navy Game
The 126th meeting between Army and Navy happens on December 13, as this standalone showcase of college football and the United States military will determine the winner of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Navy is the current holder after a 31-13 win in this game last season, but Army has won six of the last nine meetings, including the previous two before Navy ended the skid last season. The Army-Navy Game is always full of pomp, circumstance and chock full of tradition.
This year’s matchup is at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, so a lot closer to the Naval Academy in Annapolis than the United States Military Academy in West Point. Not that it matters much from a home-field advantage standpoint, as both branches are well-represented with both active duty and veteran service members. That said, Navy is 3-1 in games played at M&T Bank Stadium.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 10, 10:30 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Army-Navy Game Betting Odds
Navy -6; Total: 38
Army-Navy Game History
Navy leads 63-55-7 and won last season 31-13
Army-Navy Game Preview
An early-week line move pushed Navy into a bigger favorite, as this line primarily opened -4.5 and then the Middies got bet up to as high as -6.5. The total has been sitting around 38 or 38.5, as this game went Under the total 16 straight times before going Over in 2022 thanks to double overtime with a 20-17 result and a total of 32. The 2023 version actually stayed Under the total of 28.5 (17-11), while last season’s game went Over 39.5.
The level of familiarity between these two teams and the style of play were certainly conducive to a lot of low-scoring games. Army led the nation in rushing attempts this season with 658 and Navy sits eighth with 542 and one fewer game played than everybody except Army. After this game, Navy has the chance to show up in the top five, as they trail Western Michigan by 38 rush attempts.
In total, Army has run 766 offensive plays, so 85.9% of them have been rush attempts. Navy has run 695 plays, the third-fewest in the nation, with just shy of 78% of them as rush attempts. Even though Navy has run fewer plays and has had a lower share of runs and a lower overall volume of running plays, they are still second in the nation in rush yards, while Army is eighth.
Army ran for 4,207 yards last season, nearly 700 more than any other team, as they played 14 games and had the services of Bryson Daily and Kanye Udoh. Daily graduated and Udoh transferred and Cale Hellums and Dewayne Coleman have not been able to come close to replicating their production.
Hellums leads the team with 1,078 rushing yards on 264 carries and he’s found the end zone 15 times. Compare that to Daily, who finished with 1,659 yards on 310 carries and 32 rushing scores. Udoh ran for over 1,100 yards with 10 rushing TDs. This year’s second-leading rusher is Noah Short, who was third last season, with just 552 yards to this point. The Black Knights are far less explosive and even more run-dependent this season.
We’ll have to wait and see if Navy has a similar drop-off next season when Blake Horvath and Alex Tecza are gone. They’ve combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. As a two-year starter, Horvath has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and rushed for nearly 2,500. Tecza is a 2,000-yard rusher over his three seasons. Injuries to Horvath have allowed next year’s presumptive starter Braxton Woodson to get a lot of reps and he’s actually rushed for 9.6 yards per carry on 43 attempts.
Last season, Army had played the week prior in the American Conference Championship Game against Tulane. This season, both teams are on extra rest, as has often been the case in this game. We’ll see if that helps an Army team that was outgained 384-179 last season. Horvath had 204 rushing yards and Daily threw three interceptions with Army trailing throughout the game.
Navy OC Drew Cronic modified the traditional triple-option to have a variety of different looks and Horvath (61.3%) has the best completion percentage for a Navy QB since Will Worth in 2016 (61.5%). It likely made a difference last year. Will Army’s defense make the adjustments for this year?
Army-Navy Game Prediction
At 6 or 6.5, this line feels slightly elevated, but the side-by-side profiles seem to support it. Army is 126th in the nation in yards per play on offense, while Navy is 12th. Navy is 112th in yards per play on defense and Army is 82nd, but Navy’s defense was better by YPP in conference games. That’s relevant since these two are in the same conference now. With weather not looking like a factor, Navy’s multi-dimensional offense should have the edge.
Pick: Navy -6
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