Auburn vs. Texas A&M Predictions
In one of the many superb SEC showdowns on Saturday, September 27th, the Texas A&M Aggies host the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Where: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
When: Saturday, September 27th at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 24th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Texas A&M -250, Auburn +205
Spread: Texas A&M -6.5 (-108), Auburn +6.5 (-112)
Total: Over 52.5 (-112), Under 52.5 (-108)
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Analysis
Auburn is coming off a rough loss to Oklahoma. The Tigers were good enough to win that game outright, but they had some terrible calls go against them. Now, Hugh Freeze has to find a way to pick his team up, as there’s no time to sulk during the SEC season. But a road game against the Aggies isn’t what anybody in Auburn wants at the moment.
Texas A&M’s defensive numbers don’t look great right now, as the Aggies are just 54th in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play allowed (-0.05). However, this is a team with talent at all three levels of the defense, and they had a bye week to get ready for this Tigers offense. That should give Mike Elko, a defensive-minded coach, and defensive coordinator Jay Bateman the time they need to get their team prepared. And I’m not sure the matchup will be all that daunting.
Jackson Arnold has done some good things with his legs this year, but he’s still inaccurate as a downfield thrower. That cost Auburn in the loss to Oklahoma, as Cam Coleman was regularly open behind the defense. Arnold’s inaccuracy could let some of the Aggies defensive backs off the hook throughout this game. And A&M, which is 27th in the nation in Havoc percentage (14.7%), should be able to put some pressure on Arnold, who can be guilty of holding onto the ball too long.
On the other side of the ball, the only thing to worry about is Marcel Reed staying healthy for a full 60 minutes. The dynamic dual-threat quarterback has thrown for 869 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception, and he has also rushed for 142 yards and a score. He’s a big part of the reason that Collin Klein’s offense is currently tied for 22nd in the nation in Adjusted EPA per play (0.15), and I’m not sure the Tigers will have an answer for him. Reed has improved enough as a passer to take advantage of his awesome wide receiver group — headlined by Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. And Reed and running back Le’Veon Moss can also terrorize defenses together on the ground. Well, Auburn is no exception to that. The Tigers are outside the top-60 in EPA per play allowed (-0.03), and they have had trouble covering in the secondary. That could be a major problem against these Aggies receivers, who create separation with ease.
Despite all of that, it is a little hard to trust A&M to cover such a big number. While Elko is 6-1 straight-up when coming off a bye week in his coaching career, he’s only 3-4 against the spread in those games. That includes an 0-3 ATS mark with this program. Texas A&M is also just 2-6 ATS as a home favorite under Elko. All of that, combined with our VSiN betting splits showing some sharp money on the Auburn side, is enough to scare me off.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Prediction
I don’t have the stones to lay the points with A&M, but I did pair the Aggies with BYU (vs. Colorado) in a moneyline parlay. That’s on our VSiN picks page. I’d be surprised if Elko’s group can’t add to the win column after a bye week, especially considering this is a home game against an inferior opponent.
Lean: Texas A&M -6 (-113)
