Previewing the TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
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Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss (-3.5, 70)
Date: Wednesday, December 28, 9:00 p.m. ET
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Betting splits: 68% of handle, 76% of bets on Ole Miss -3.5
Texas Tech won and covered each of its last three games. A victory over Oklahoma in the season finale rallied them to a bowl berth in Joey McGuire’s first year leading the Red Raiders program. QB Tyler Shough missed time earlier in the season with a collarbone injury but has regained his starting job with backup Donovan Smith now in the transfer portal and freshman Behren Morton injured. No matter who manned the quarterback position, the Red Raiders were able to throw and throw some more, ranking 12th nationally in passing offense (309.8 ypg).
On the other side, Ole Miss ended its once-promising season by losing four of its last five games and failing to cover five of its last six outings. While Texas Tech throws and throws, the Rebels run and run some more. Ole Miss ranks 3rd nationally in rushing offense (261.6 ypg) led by freshman Quinshon Johnson’s near-1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Junior Zach Evans added almost 900 plus eight touchdowns. QB Jaxson Dart is also a running threat adding 548 in addition to his 2,613 yards and 18 TDs through the air. Texas Tech allowed 166.4 ypg on the ground, but they did allow more than 200 rush yards in four of their last five games.
Neither team suffered much attrition due to opt-outs, although FS Reggie Pearson has left the Red Raiders program for Oklahoma. Ole Miss took a hit to its depth defensively but still retains most of its defensive core.
Both defenses can be had here as Ole Miss ranks just 68th (379.8 ypg) and Texas Tech is 102nd (414.5 ypg), which is why it is currently the second-highest remaining total on the board at 70 on a fast track indoors at NRG Stadium.
Ole Miss opened -4 but currently sits at -3.5 marketwide. The Red Raiders should have the crowd edge as Lubbock is only 500 miles from Houston. Ole Miss plays in the better conference, but benefitted from a soft schedule in its 7-0 start and probably ended up underachieving while Texas Tech may have overachieved with its strong finish. —Wes Reynolds
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