Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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- NCAAF Expert Picks
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You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s College Football slate.
4 p.m. ET: Georgia (-5, 55.5) vs Alabama
This SEC Championship game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (12-0) is ranked 1st and just held off Georgia Tech 31-23 but did not cover as 24.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (11-1) is ranked 8th and just came from behind to beat Auburn 27-24 but did not cover as a 13.5-point road favorite. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The public is laying the points with Georgia, who is receiving 65% of bets. This lopsided betting drove Georgia all the way up to -6 early in the week. However, once we reached the key number of 6, that’s when we saw heavy buyback on Alabama plus the points, dropping the line back down to Georgia -5 where it rests now. Alabama is receiving late movement in their favor and are also contrarian in the most heavily bet game of the day, receiving only 35% of bets. Currently 82% of bets are taking the over. However, despite this lopsided betting the total hasn’t budged off 55.5. This line freeze signals some respected money on the contrarian under.
8 p.m. ET: Louisville vs Florida State (-1.5, 46.5)
This ACC Championship game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, home of the Carolina Panthers. Louisville (10-2) is ranked 14th but just had their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Kentucky 38-31 and losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Florida State (12-0) is ranked 4th and just edged Florida 24-15, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Florida State listed as high as a 6-point neutral site favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Florida State, who is undefeated and has a far better ranking. However, despite receiving 67% of bets we’ve seen Florida State fall from -6 to -1.5. A big reason for the line move is the health of FSU QB Tate Rodemaker, who is questionable with a head injury. Rodemaker is FSU’s second string QB after Jordan Travis was ruled out for the season with an injury. If Rodemaker can’t play, FSU is expected to start true freshman Brock Glenn. Louisville is only receiving 33% of bets but 40% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. We’ve also seen the total from 53.5 to 46.5. Currently 33% of bets but 61% of money is taking the under, a notable wiseguy bet discrepancy. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 5 MPH winds and possible some rain.
8 p.m. ET: Michigan (-21.5, 35) vs Iowa
This Big Ten Championship game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Michigan (12-0) is ranked 2nd just held off Ohio State 30-24, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa (10-2) is ranked 16th and just edged Nebraska 13-10, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 23-point neutral site favorite. The public expects a Wolverines blowout win and cover. However, despite 60% of bets laying the points we’ve seen Michigan fall from -23 to -21.5. This signals some respected money grabbing the points with the big dog, Sharps have also leaned under. The total opened at 34.5, got bet up to 35.5 and has since fallen down to 35. Essentially, 35.5 was the high water mark that under bettors targeted. The public thinks this total is way too low and "it has to go over." However, despite 79% of bets going over, the total has largely remained frozen off the opener. Iowa is 10-2 to the under this season. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of College Football in terms of pace of play, with Michigan ranking 121st and Iowa 128th out of 133 teams. These are also two of the top scoring defenses, with Michigan allowing 10.3 PPG (1st) and Iowa allowing 12.2 PPG (4th).
