Betting Splits and CFB Sharp Money Picks for Saturday September 23

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games on The Sweat from 8 to 10 a.m. ET, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston. 

 

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s Week 4 College Football slate…

 

12 p.m. ET: Florida State (-2.5, 55) at Clemson 

Florida State (3-0) is ranked 4th and just edged Boston College 31-29, failing to cover as 26-point road favorites. On the other hand, Clemson (2-1) just brushed aside Florida Atlantic 48-14, covering as 25-point home favorites. The early lookahead line on this game was Clemson favored by as many as three points at home. However, the public has been all over FSU in this one, flipping the Seminoles to as high as a 3-point road favorite. Currently 89% of bets are backing FSU. Over the past few days we’ve seen sharp buyback on Clemson plus the points, dropping the line back down to FSU -2.5. Some shops have fallen further to -2. Essentially, late respected money is siding with Clemson as an unpopular home dog. The Tigers are one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 11% of bets in the most heavily bet early game. Clemson also has buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Clemson will lean on their defense, allowing only 247 yards per game compared to 391 for FSU. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 56 to 55. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Colorado at Oregon (-21, 70)

Colorado (3-0) is ranked 19th and just took down Colorado State 43-35 in double overtime but failed to cover as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (3-0) is ranked 10th and just crushed Hawaii 55-10, covering as 38-point home favorites. This line initially opened with Oregon listed as a 14-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Colorado and Coach Prime. However, despite 81% of bets taking the trendy dog, we’ve seen this line shoot up from Oregon -14 to -21. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oregon, with pros fading the trendy dog Buffs and instead laying the points with the contrarian favorite. Part of the steam was also driven by Colorado being without their injured two-way star Travis Hunter. Oregon is contrarian in a heavily bet game, receiving only 19% of bets. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 172-141 ATS (55%) since 2016. Oregon has a big edge in the run game (averaging 229 yards per game vs 61 for Colorado) and the better defense (allowing 286 vs 460). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 73 to 70. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State (-3, 55.5) at Notre Dame

Ohio State (3-0) is ranked 6th and just crushed Western Kentucky 63-10, easily covering as 29.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Notre Dame (4-0) is ranked 9th and just beat Central Michigan 41-17 but failed to cover as 34.5-point home favorites. The early lookahead line on this game was Ohio State listed as high as a 7.5-point road favorite. It was quickly adjusted down to Ohio State -3.5. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Ohio State fall from -3.5 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. Reading between the lines, this signals pro money grabbing Norte Dame plus the hook (+3.5). The Irish are receiving 51% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Notre Dame has the better rushing attack, averaging 205 yards per game compared to 147 for Ohio State. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 54.5 to 55.5.