Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s Army-Navy showdown.
This game will be played at Gillette Stadium, home of the New England Patriots.
Army (5-6) is riding a three-game winning streak and just took down Coastal Carolina 28-21, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Navy (5-6) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to SMU 59-14 and failing to cover as 20-point road dogs.
This line opened with Army listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Currently 66% of bets and 57% of money is laying the points with Army. This lopsided betting has caused Army to rise from -2 to -2.5. Throughout the week, anytime this line rises to the key number of 3 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Navy +3, causing the line to fall back down to 2.5.
Army has the edge on both sides of the ball, averaging 21 PPG on offense and allowing 22 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, Navy is averaging 18 PPG on offense and allowing 23 PPG on defense. Army also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on November 18th while Navy last played on November 25th.
Sharps have hammered this under. It opened at 30 and has fallen to 28, with some shops even inching down to 27.5. Currently 45% of bets and 57% of money is taking the under, a sharp contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" bet split.
The under is 16-1 in the last 17 matchups between Army and Navy. The over finally hit last year but it was a bit of a fluke, as Army won 20-17 in double overtime. Army tied the game 10-10 late in the fourth quarter to force overtime, where 17 additional points were scored to cash the over.
Pros love playing military academy unders due to the style of play. Both teams run the ball nearly every snap, which keeps the clock rolling and benefits the under. Because they rarely throw, there aren’t many long plays or incomplete passes to stop the clock. Also, both teams practice against the run during the week, which makes them more used to defending the triple option.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue today in Foxboro. The forecast calls for high 40s with cloudy skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.