Big 12
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
Last season, Arizona State was picked to finish last in the Big 12, but Kenny Dillingham led the Sun Devils to a conference title. They beat Iowa State 45-19 in the Big 12 Championship Game, giving hope to teams like Arizona, West Virginia, UCF and Oklahoma State—programs being given little chance to win the league in 2025.
Still, it’s likely one of the favorites will come out on top this season. The question is: which one? At DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas State and Arizona State are both listed at +550 to win it all. The Wildcats have been excellent under Chris Klieman and return dynamic dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson, who’s capable of taking them to another level. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils may have lost Cam Skattebo, but star quarterback Sam Leavitt is back — one of 17 returning players with starting experience for Dillingham. Expect more high-level football in Tempe.
What’s wild is how crowded the top of the oddsboard is. Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU are all priced at 10-1 or shorter at DK, and Iowa State isn’t far behind at 12-1. All of those teams have the coaching and talent to put together a championship season.
It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Kansas, BYU, Colorado, Cincinnati or Houston exceed expectations. Colorado is especially intriguing. Coach Prime no longer has Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter, but his teams will never be short on talent.
The biggest difference with the Big 12 this year? The champion isn’t just hoping to steal a game in the College Football Playoff. The teams expected to contend in this league have legitimate national title aspirations. There’s no shortage of high-end talent — whether it comes from experienced rosters or deep NIL pockets. (We’re looking at you, Texas Tech.)
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Arizona Wildcats
Jedd Fisch built something real in Tucson. After going 1-11 in his first season, he went 10-3 and the Wildcats won the Alamo Bowl in 2023. That was just his third year in the desert. Unfortunately, when Washington came calling with big money, Arizona wasn’t able to match.
Arizona turned to Brent Brennan as Fisch’s replacement. Brennan, once a grad assistant with the Wildcats, was the Mountain West Coach of the Year in 2020. He was great at San Jose State, but things got off to an ugly start in his jump to the big leagues.
Arizona went 4-8 in Brennan’s first season, and the team was 2-7 in conference play. Many were calling for him to be fired, but Brennan got another year. He completely overhauled his coaching staff and made sweeping roster changes. So, we should see signs of life.
Offense
Brennan hired Seth Doege to run the offense. Doege has an Air Raid background, but he values the running game. Doege was Marshall’s offensive coordinator last year, and the Thundering Herd were 24th in the nation in yards per rush attempt (5.0).
If Arizona’s offensive line can protect, this offense has potential. And there are reasons to believe the line will be solid, as the staff added four full-time starters in the portal.
Doege should get this rushing offense back into the top 100 — I’m high on first-team Sun Belt running back Ismail Mahdi. Also, Noah Fifita has all the talent in the world at quarterback and the Wildcats brought in some burners at wide receiver. There’s hope here.
Defense
Defensive end Tre Smith is back after a good season, and Arizona added some huge bodies to play alongside him on the defensive line. This team also brought back safety Dalton Johnson, who led the Wildcats in tackles. They should also be a little better at corner, where Jay’Vion Cole, who played for Texas in 2024, could make an instant impact.
Arizona’s 6.4 YPP allowed last year was unacceptable, and only 20 teams in the country were worse. But the Wildcats will start nine players that started games last year, and some of the transfers they brought in were stars in lesser conferences.
Outlook
I don’t feel strongly about Arizona’s win total, but I’d take a juiced Over on 4.5 before going Under 5.5. This is a much better team than it was a year ago, and the new coaches should do a better job with the personnel. Arizona also has home games against Hawaii, Weber State, Oklahoma State, BYU and Kansas. There might be four or five wins there alone. If the Wildcats can steal one road win, they’ll be golden.
Pick: Over 4.5 Wins
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Arizona State Sun Devils
In Diggstown, a very underrated boxing movie, Gabriel Caine tells “Honey” Roy Palmer: “What you did tonight…couldn’t be done.” Well, what Kenny Dillingham did in Tempe in 2024 was similarly improbable.
The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 last year, and they entered the season with a win total of 4.5. Arizona State would go on to win the Big 12, routing a good Iowa State team in a 45-19 victory in the championship. The team also went to the College Football Playoff, where it fell 39-31 in an instant classic against Texas in the quarterfinals.
Expectations are now high after an 11-win season, but Dillingham has 17 players with starting experience back — including star quarterback Sam Leavitt. There’s no reason the Sun Devils can’t build on last year.
Offense
Arizona State averaged 32.9 points per game and finished 13th in the nation in EPA per play (0.16) in 2024. Losing Cam Skattebo, who rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns and was impossible to bring down in short-yardage situations, is going to hurt. But Kanye Udoh rushed for 1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns for Army last season, and he seems like he’s up for the challenge of leading this backfield.
Realistically, the dropoff from Skattebo to Udoh might be big, but the offensive line is going to be much better than it was a year ago. Also, the passing game could take off in a big way. Leavitt is only going to be better with the experience he picked up last year, and Jordyn Tyson should be one of the best wide receivers in the nation.
Not only will this be one of the best offenses in the Big 12, but it could be one of the most potent ones in the country.
Defense
While Dillingham is an offensive coach, defensive coordinator Brian Ward has made this program tough defensively. The Sun Devils were 37th in the nation in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) last year, and they could be in for some improvements this year.
Arizona State beefed up the defensive line, has a great group of linebackers — led by Keyshaun Elliot — and might have the best secondary in the conference.
Outlook
The on-field product for Arizona State could be better than it was last year. The only question is, can the Sun Devils overcome a tough schedule? They’ll play road games against Mississippi State, Baylor, Utah, Iowa State and Colorado. That’s brutal. They’ll also host a very good Texas Tech team. But I believe this team is more talented than anybody in the Big 12, and we know Dillingham and his staff can coach — and motivate. So, I’d lean Over here.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda’s job was in serious jeopardy after Baylor’s 2-4 start to last season, but the Bears turned things around. Baylor won the final six games of the regular season, and the team could have been in the Big 12 Championship Game if not for Shedeur Sanders’ Hail Mary when the teams met in Week 4. That 43-yard touchdown pass tied the game, then the Buffs went on to win in overtime.
This season, Baylor has 18 players with starting experience back. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball, and they’re definitely thinking about crashing the College Football Playoff. Though, with increased expectations comes more pressure.
Aranda’s 2021 season was magical, but the Bears haven’t been great since. If they don’t live up to the hype, he could be on the outs.
Offense
Four of Baylor’s five starters are back along the line. With that in mind, time won’t be an issue for quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who could be in for a stellar season. Robertson threw for 3,071 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight picks last year. He has a big arm and he’s accurate down the field. He’s also a good runner.
The Bears also have an electric running back combination, as Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass combined to rush for 1,699 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. Baylor is also stacked when it comes to pass catchers, so there’s really no weakness with this offense. And Jake Spavital is an elite play caller.
Defense
Baylor gave up 26.7 points per game last year, but the team was much better down the stretch — excluding a miserable performance against LSU in the bowl game.
Linebacker Keaton Thomas, who was a first-teamer in the Big 12 last year, is the biggest name when looking at all the returners from a season ago, and the Bears are stacked in the front seven — where defensive end Jackie Marshall is another stud.
The secondary is the big question mark here. Baylor barely cracked the top 100 in EPA allowed per dropback (0.05) last year, and the team got shredded against LSU. If the passing defense isn’t better this year, that’ll cap the Bears upside.
Outlook
Baylor’s going to be a tough team to beat, and the Bears are going to look better than they did last year on both sides of the ball. The issue is they’re in a deep conference, meaning a very difficult schedule. They’ll play home games against Auburn, Arizona State, Kansas State and Utah, plus road games against SMU and TCU. I like this Baylor team, but it feels like there’s four or five losses there. I also don’t think road games against Cincinnati or Arizona will be gimmes.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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BYU Cougars
BYU is coming off one of the best years in program history. The Cougars weren’t expected to do much last season, but they went 11-2 and only missed out on the Big 12 Championship Game because of tiebreakers. The season also ended with a win over Colorado in the Alamo Bowl.
Kalani Sitake has proven to be one of the better leaders in the sport, as he’s 72-43 since taking over his alma mater. But doing special things with this year’s team would potentially be his finest work yet.
The Cougars lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and some off-field stuff led to the departure of star quarterback Jake Retzlaff. There’s a lot of uncertainty with this squad, but the quarterback spot was one of the only ones that was supposed to be solidified.
Offense
There will be an open competition to fill Retzlaff’s shoes at the quarterback position, but none of the answers will be good enough. Retzlaff threw for 2,947 yards and 20 touchdowns last year, and he was also good with his legs. On top of that, Retzlaff seemed to play better in bigger moments, and his absence will crush this offense.
The positive is that LJ Martin is back after rushing for 5.2 yards per carry and looking like a real player last season. He’ll also be running behind a line that should be rock solid.
It’s just fair to wonder how much all of that will matter with QB being such a big question mark. The wide receiver room is also pretty thin outside of Chase Roberts.
Defense
You’ll see some really good players when looking at the BYU defensive line and linebacking corps. Defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa should be a future pro, and the same can be said about linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker. However, only four total starters from last year are back, and that’s a lot of production to replace.
The Cougars also lost a lot in the secondary, which was a strength a year ago. In this conference, which is deep at the quarterback position, it’s hard not to worry about what that’ll mean for the entire unit.
Outlook
With Sitake at the helm, it’s going to be hard to keep BYU down for long. However, it isn’t fair to expect seven wins out of a team that just lost its starting quarterback. BYU could start 3-0 with an easy early-season schedule, but Big 12 play will be a problem if the Cougars can’t beat teams through the air. So, even though it’s very difficult to win in Provo, I can’t suggest anything but an Under here.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Cincinnati Bearcats
Scott Satterfield’s looking for a Year 3 leap with Cincinnati. Last year, the Bearcats won five games, which was an improvement after a three-win season in 2023. Well, let’s see what a third offseason will do. Appalachian State won seven games in Satterfield’s second year with the program, then the team won 11 games in his third year.
Cincinnati’s roster is also a lot better than you’d think — especially on offense. When you combine that with the fact that the Bearcats have one of the easier schedules in the Big 12, it doesn’t feel like bowl eligibility is out of the question.
The season opener against Nebraska, in Kansas City, will tell us a lot about this team.
Offense
It’s hard not to love this offense. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is big, confident and can make plays with his arm and his legs. A big season isn’t out of the question with the offensive line expected to be good, plus all the pass-catching talent he’ll have in the fold.
In tight end Joe Royer, the Bearcats have one of the best pass-catching weapons in the conference. I’m also looking forward to seeing Tawee Walker run behind an offensive line that brings back three starters and should turn heads this year. Walker had two 100-yard games for Wisconsin last season, despite playing in an offense that couldn’t move the ball through the air.
This might not be the sexiest-looking depth chart in the Big 12, but don’t be surprised if this offense holds its own against everyone.
Defense
Cincinnati has been strong along the defensive line since Satterfield took over, but getting after the passer has been an issue. But the Bearcats should be better with Dontay Corleone, Mikah Coleman and Jalen Hunt all healthy. Marquaze Parker and Jaylon White-McClain could also add some juice getting into the opposing backfield.
Cincinnati is also experienced when it comes to the linebacker spots, where Jiquan Sanks has the potential to emerge as a star.
I’m also pretty high on the defensive backs here. The Bearcats lost a lot from last year, but they did really well in the portal — especially adding All-Sun Belt first-teamer Matthew McDoom at corner.
Outlook
At plus-money odds, I’d grab the Over on 6.5 wins for Cincinnati. The defensive backs will be the swing group for this team. If the transfers they brought in end up hitting, this is a team that should handle its business at home. And they should be able to compete in road games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. Doing all of that should be enough for seven wins, and I’m not sure eight is out of the question.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Colorado Buffaloes
For the first time in a long time, there’s silence surrounding this program. Travis Hunter, who won the Heisman Trophy last year, was drafted second overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Shedeur Sanders, who slid in the draft, is off to the Cleveland Browns. But Deion Sanders is still in Boulder. And as long as Coach Prime is around, the Buffaloes are going to be talented. This year is no exception.
Colorado continues to do a good job on the recruiting trail, and transfers clearly want to be a part of Prime’s program.
The Buffs probably aren’t looking at matching the nine wins they posted last year, especially with a very difficult schedule. But the Buffs aren’t going to disappear.
Offense
Sanders threw for 4,134 yards with 37 touchdowns last year, and he always seemed to deliver in clutch situations. So, replacing him is going to be difficult. Fortunately, Coach Prime added a five-star recruit in JuJu Lewis, and he also got Liberty star Kaidon Salter in the transfer portal. Between those two, Colorado should be in decent shape under center.
If you want to worry about something, direct your attention to the wide receivers. Hunter had 96 catches for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns, so he’ll be missed dearly as a pass-catching weapon. And the group of wideouts the Buffs have right now is lacking in talent and experience.
Also, while the Colorado offensive line should be solid, we haven’t seen a commitment to the running game.
Defense
Hunter’s presence will also be missed on the defensive side of the ball, as he was a lockdown corner in addition to a playmaker. However, in DJ McKinney, the Buffaloes do have a good corner to shadow the opponent’s top guy. They also have some other transfers coming over that started last year, so the secondary might not be a problem.
The linebackers are also expected to be solid. It’s the defensive line that is the biggest question mark. Colorado has some experienced players back, but the high-end talent isn’t there. That means defensive line coach Warren Sapp will need to coach his butt off.
Unfortunately, despite having eight returning starters, matching last year’s 4.7 YPP allowed isn’t in the cards.
Outlook
Colorado isn’t going to be a doormat in the Big 12, but it’s hard to imagine the Buffaloes getting to seven wins. I think Colorado will beat Delaware, Wyoming, BYU and Arizona, and a road meeting with Houston is winnable. The same probably goes for a home game against Georgia Tech to start the season. But that’s only six wins when looking at the schedule, and some of them are iffy.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Houston Cougars
Willie Fritz went 23-4 in his final two seasons with Tulane, and he had been flirting with big jobs for years. Fritz’s first year in Texas didn’t go very well, as Houston finished 4-8 overall and 3-6 in conference. However, Fritz has everything he needs to win here, as Texas is rich with talented football players and Houston’s boosters aren’t shy about spending.
This season, expectations aren’t outrageously high, but Fritz does have 16 players with starting experience in the lineup. And given what we have seen from his teams in the past, it’s probably safe to say he won’t field one of the nation’s bottom-five scoring offenses again. If the offense does move to the middle of the pack, that should be enough for the Cougars to start moving in the right direction.
Offense
Houston is hoping that quarterback Conner Weigman, once viewed as a future star at Texas A&M, just needed a change of scenery. Weigman will be working behind a line that has three returning starters, along with two massive transfers that look ready for action.
When Weigman has time to throw, he can accurately deliver the ball to every part of the field, and this is a quarterback-friendly system. Weigman is also solid as a runner.
Houston also has some real playmakers, and tight end Tanner Koziol could end up turning heads after a big year at Ball State. There’s also some good running backs in H-Town, and Fritz’s teams generally run well.
Realistically, the Cougars can only go up after averaging 14.0 PPG last year.
Defense
Houston has seven players with starting experience back from last year, and this team gave up only 22.9 PPG. The Cougars also gave up only 5.1 YPP, which was good for 35th in the country.
Houston does have a new defensive coordinator in Austin Armstrong, so things will be a little different. But Armstrong is viewed as a rising star, so he should be able to make this work.
The Cougars have a lot of size along the defensive line, and they also have a good looking secondary. If the linebacking corps exceeds expectations, this will be a sturdy defense.
Outlook
The Cougars will play home games against Stephen F Austin, Colorado, Arizona, West Virginia and TCU, and they also have road games against Rice, Oregon State, Oklahoma State and UCF. That’s about as manageable of a schedule as you can possibly ask for in a conference like this, and I like the talent this team has on both sides of the ball. That’s enough for me to bank on seven wins with a coach I trust.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Iowa State Cyclones
The Big 12 Championship Game didn’t go as hoped, as Iowa State got rocked by Arizona State. However, last year was the best in program history. Matt Campbell has done nothing but excellent work since arriving in Ames, but he had never reached double-digit wins. He smashed through that ceiling with 11 last year, including a bowl win over Miami in front of a busted looking strawberry Pop-Tart, which was resurrected earlier in the day.
Hitting 10 or more wins this year would take another spectacular coaching job, as Iowa State lost a ton of key pieces from last season. But some of the main ones are back, and Campbell has done more with less.
Offense
There’s a lot of roster turnover here, but the team is in good shape along the line. Three starters are back, and the two others will be guys that played in 2023.
The Cyclones also have Rocco Becht back after a season in which he threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns while also rushing for eight scores. Becht is a gamer, capable of beating teams with his arm and his legs. He also manufactured several game-winning drives last year, so he’s a proven winner and should only be better in Year 3.
Iowa State also returns its two main backs, Abu Sama and Carson Hansen. The only spot on offense in which the Cyclones have question marks is at receiver, but they brought in some good transfers — including ECU star Chase Sowell.
Defense
Iowa State couldn’t stop the run last year, as the team gave up 5.4 yards per carry and gave up a ton of explosive plays. That’s why the Cyclones were just 82nd in the nation in YPP allowed (5.8). Iowa State now has to deal with several defensive linemen having left, but maybe getting some fresh bodies in there will be good.
The real problem is that they lost some studs in the secondary, and they’ll be replacing them with younger players and unproven transfers. Fortunately, star corner Jontez Williams is back and fully capable of defending top wideouts on an island. Will others step up and help him? The team also lost most of its reliable linebackers. The good news is that this program has always developed players well.
Outlook
Iowa State still has an elite coach and a great quarterback. That really should be enough for the Cyclones to find a way to eight wins. There’s undoubtedly some uncertainty here, but the schedule isn’t awful. After a neutral-field meeting with Kansas State, in Ireland, on August 23rd, the team should rattle off four wins in a row. Then, some of the tougher games on the schedule will be played at home.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Kansas Jayhawks
Heading into last season, this program looked like it was on a rocket ship. In Lance Leipold’s first year, the Jayhawks went 2-10 overall and 1-8 in conference. Then, in Year 2, Kansas went 6-7 overall and 3-6 in conference. After that came the breakout. In 2024, the team went 9-4 overall and 5-4 in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks also won their bowl game against UNLV. All of that success played a role in a substantial financial investment in the program’s facilities.
Unfortunately, last season was a mess. The team went 5-7 overall and 4-5 in conference play. The defense was a disaster, which led to defensive coordinator Brian Borland retiring. DK McDonald will take over there.
Expectations aren’t high in Lawrence this season, but this roster isn’t bad. And Leipold seems to do his best work when nobody believes in him.
Offense
Last season, Kansas was a top-10 team in adjusted EPA per play (0.16), which is interesting because they got away from the offense that made Jalon Daniels great. Still, Daniels looked like the dual-threat star he is in the second half of the year, which is why the Jayhawks went 4-2 in their final six games.
Kansas is now going back to an offense that will feature more read-option, which is where Daniels thrives, the offensive line is expected to be a strength and running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. has the potential to be a stud. So, if some of the new pass catchers can step up, there isn’t much preventing this from being an elite group.
Defense
Nobody in the conference returns fewer contributors than Kansas, and working in a new coordinator on top of that won’t be easy. But McDonald’s last few stops were with Iowa State and the Philadelphia Eagles, so he has been around some great coaches. Many believe he’ll do a good job in Lawrence.
The Jayhawks also hit the portal extremely hard. They should be solid along the defensive line, and there’s talent at linebacker and defensive back.
I don’t expect a massive leap from the unit, but finishing within the top 75 in YPP allowed — after a year outside the top 100 — seems reasonable.
Outlook
Putting Daniels behind a solid offensive line, while having an average defense, is a recipe for success. However, I don’t see eight wins when looking at this schedule. The Big 12 is simply too good to expect the Jayhawks to consistently win on the road, and I’m not sure their home schedule is as easy as it needs to be for this high of a win total. Kansas would likely have to beat Missouri in order for the Over to be in play, and I’m not sure I see that happening.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Kansas State Wildcats
After going 69-6 and winning four national championships with North Dakota State, Chris Klieman is 48-28 through six seasons with Kansas State. The 57-year-old is clearly one of the best coaches in the country, which is why we have seen the Wildcats win at least nine games in each of the last three seasons. However, people are waiting for the big breakthrough in the Little Apple. Klieman did finish in first in the Big 12 in 2022, and the team beat TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. But an appearance in the College Football Playoff is the ultimate goal.
If Klieman is going to get this team to the promised land, one would think it’ll happen in one of the next two seasons. Quarterback Avery Johnson is entering his junior year in Manhattan, and the Wildcats have to be thinking that they can capitalize on his special talent eventually.
Offense
Johnson threw for 2,712 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 picks last year, and he also ran for 605 yards and seven scores. He’s electric when he tucks the ball and runs, and he’s only getting better at processing the field as a passer.
Johnson’s play was a big part of the reason Kansas State averaged 6.4 YPP, which was right up there with the best teams in college football. This year, things could be even better.
The Wildcats have a good offensive line, Dylan Edwards is a solid running back and the program added Purdue transfer Jaron Tibbs to a receiver group that already includes stud Jayce Brown. All the pieces are in place.
Defense
Kansas State gave up only 3.8 yards per rush last year, and the team was also eighth in the nation in EPA per rush allowed (-0.12). This team was really good along the line, and that will once again be a strength with tackle Damian Ilalio having reliable bodies around him.
The Wildcats also have one of the best linebackers in the nation in Austin Romaine, who was a second-team All-Big 12 performer last year. The rest of the linebacking corps is solid, too.
Kansas State just has some question marks in the secondary. The passing defense was a weakness last year, so they completely overhauled the personnel. They desperately need some of the offseason moves to hit.
Outlook
Kansas State’s Ireland game against Iowa State is a genuine toss-up, but there’s a path to nine wins without getting that one. The Wildcats will just have to hold serve at home, and they’ll also need to go on the road and handle teams like Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma State. Doing that will go a long way towards this Over, which feels like the right call for a team that has the potential to make the Big 12 Championship Game this year.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Oklahoma State Cowboys
Last season was a strange one in Stillwater. After reaching double digits in wins in two of the previous three seasons, Oklahoma State went 3-9 overall and 0-9 in Big 12 play. Gundy hadn’t had a losing record with the Cowboys since his first year with the program, which was all the way back in 2005.
Gundy’s probably not on the hot seat. He’s 169-88 in his time with Oklahoma State, and he has passed up some big opportunities to stick around. But there is some real uncertainty surrounding the program for the first time in a while, and the roster is definitely one of the Big 12’s weakest heading into the new season.
Offense
History suggests we should never worry about an Oklahoma State offense, but the team only averaged 27.2 points per game last year and found a way to crater a running game that featured a flat-out star in Ollie Gordon.
This year, the Cowboys will have five new players starting along the offensive line, their starting quarterback will be somebody who has never thrown a pass at the collegiate level, and the running back situation isn’t getting better with a talent like Gordon out the door.
Of course, Gundy might be able to make this all work. He’s a mastermind and the system is still in place. But it’s hard to see the positives here.
Defense
The Oklahoma State defense was abysmal last season. Only five teams allowed more than the 6.7 YPP the Cowboys gave up, and Oklahoma State also allowed 35.6 PPG.
Gundy and his staff are hoping some transfers can fix that. While only three players return from last year’s defense, the Cowboys are set to have three new starters that started for their teams last year.
There’s a chance the linebackers end up being decent, especially with some injured players from last year being healthier. But it’s hard to be optimistic about the D-Line and the secondary.
Outlook
Stillwater really shouldn’t be an easy place to win, but opponents were unbothered in Boone Pickens Stadium last year. This season, I’m not sure things will be any different. Oklahoma State should be able to beat Tennessee-Martin and Tulsa at home, but I’m not sure the Cowboys will be big favorites against anybody else. I also don’t trust this roster in Big 12 road games — including against Arizona and UCF. I like the Under.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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TCU Horned Frogs
Sonny Dykes took TCU to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game in his first year with the program. However, the Horned Frogs suffered a big time hangover season in 2023, going 5-7 overall and 3-6 in Big 12 play. So, it wasn’t clear what to expect heading into 2024. But Dykes and TCU bounced back in 2024, going 9-4 overall and ending the year with a win over Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl.
The Horned Frogs are now looking to take things a little further than last year, as some of their key guys are back. Their win total only sits at 6.5, partly because of a tough schedule, but there’s no reason this team can’t turn some heads and sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game.
Offense
When Dykes has a quarterback he can trust, his offenses can be pretty damn dangerous. Well, Dykes can trust Josh Hoover. Last year, Hoover was seventh in the nation in passing yards (3,949). He also set a single-season TCU record with that mark, and there’s no reason he can’t build on that in 2025. Hoover has a big arm, he’s aggressive in testing windows and he craves big moments. He’ll also be working behind an improved offensive line.
The issue with TCU is that the running game was nonexistent last year, and that put a lot of pressure on Hoover. Will that change in 2025? Also, it’s not yet clear who Hoover can count on as his targets. Eric McAlister was good as a No. 2 last year, but can he be a No. 1? And how will Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer do after catching 78 passes for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns against worse competition last season? If those two ball out, TCU might go from top 25 in YPP (6.1) to top 10.
Defense
This has the potential to be a very good Horned Frogs defense. Last year, in Andy Avalos’ first season as TCU’s defensive coordinator, the team was outside the top 100 in adjusted EPA per play allowed (0.05). However, the Horned Frogs were very good against the pass, and they have star safety Bud Clark back. They also added a stud corner in Washington transfer Elijah Jackson.
If TCU can avoid big plays over the top, this defense could be one of the strongest in the Big 12. That’s because they’re stacked when looking at the defensive line and linebackers.
Outlook
TCU’s schedule isn’t exactly a walk in the park, which is why the team’s win total sits so low. However, I have some faith in the Horned Frogs going on the road and winning tough games, as Hoover should be one of the best quarterbacks in the conference this year. I’m especially looking at road games against North Carolina, West Virginia and BYU as the winnable ones. Doing well in that trio of games and taking care of business at home should amount to seven victories.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Texas Tech Red Raiders
In July, On3’s Pete Nakos had Texas Tech at No. 2 on a list of the 10 biggest NIL spenders in college football, according to a survey. And pretty much every report you’ll find will tell you that Texas Tech is paying its athletes an exorbitant amount of money.
The Red Raiders added all kinds of talent through the transfer portal, which is why the team has 21 players with starting experience set to play this year. The question is, can you piece together a team through “free agency” and win a good conference? Indiana provided some hope in finding success with a completely new crop of players, but Curt Cignetti is one of the best coaches in college football and the Hoosiers had an easy schedule. There won’t be many easy wins for the Red Raiders in Big 12 play.
Offense
The best place to start is with the offensive line. Joey McGuire has three starters back, but he also went nuts adding full-time starters in the portal. Apparently, he’s happy with that group now.
The improved line should help USC transfer Quenten Joyner fill the shoes of star running back Tahj Brooks, and he’ll have help from Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams.
The Red Raiders are also stacked at receiver, where Miami (OH) transfer Reggie Virgil, who had 819 yards and nine touchdowns last season, could become a household name — especially with Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin providing him with space.
Oddly enough, the biggest question mark is at quarterback. Behren Morton is injury prone and a little unproven. But Texas Tech showed a lot of faith in him by standing pat in the portal.
Defense
The linebackers are tremendous, as Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts return to lead a talented group. The Red Raiders also have an insane amount of talent — and future pros — along the line, where they also have depth.
If Texas Tech’s portal additions in the secondary hit, this unit should be great. And not only did the coaching staff add starters, but they targeted guys with size and length.
Last year, Tech gave up 6.4 YPP and was outside the top 100 in that category. With this type of payroll, anything outside a jump to the top 40 would be a disappointment.
Outlook
In order for Texas Tech to get to nine wins, the team probably needs to beat both Houston and West Virginia on the road. That’s really what it comes down to when looking at the schedule. Obviously, the Red Raiders will be significantly more talented than both squads. But I tend to think McGuire will regret not upgrading at the quarterback spot, and I think the team will feel that most in road games like those. I’m going Under.
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
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UCF Knights
“Sometimes you gotta go back… to actually move forward,” said the great Matthew McConaughey, while trying to sell 2015 Lincoln MKCs. But that quote really feels like it was made for Scott Frost’s eventual return to Orlando.
Frost led UCF to a perfect 13-0 record in 2017, and the Knights tried to claim a national title for that remarkable year. But Frost bounced from the “Bounce House” shortly after, taking the job at his alma mater of Nebraska. That experiment lasted only five years, and it was a disaster.
Now, Frost is back to revive a UCF program that collapsed after he left. Frost insists his heart wasn’t fully in the Nebraska job, and he has outright said he regretted leaving the Knights. Let’s now see if a renewed spark can lead to another golden era of UCF football.
Offense
UCF needs to make the right decision at quarterback, where there’s a very open competition between Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson, FAU transfer Cam Fancher and returner Jacurri Brown. McKenzie Milton, once Frost’s star quarterback at UCF, is coaching this room, but can anybody provide even 50% of what Milton did as a dual-threat signal caller.
The running back and receiver groups also lack proven commodities, but the common theme is speed. Pretty much everybody Frost went out and got in the portal can fly, so expect to see several players break out.
The offensive line also looks to be decent, with three players with starting experience set to start — including left tackle Paul Rubelt, who has an NFL future.
Defense
This defense might turn some heads. There’s a lot of talent along the defensive line, and they’re going to be able to get after the quarterback. Also, while they’re breaking in all new starters at linebacker, most of them come from big schools. The one that didn’t is Cole Kozlowski, who was one of the best defensive players in the FCS for Colgate.
Alex Grinch, the team’s new defensive coordinator, just needs to work some magic with the secondary, but that has been his speciality throughout his up-and-down coaching career.
Outlook
I’m not sure Frost will ever have UCF consistently competing atop the Big 12, but I think this reunion is going to work. He knows how to win in Orlando, where his uptempo offense used to wear opponents down. There’s also enough talent in Florida for Frost to build something unique. I also believe Year 1 will be more successful than people think. UCF is incredibly tough to beat at home, and the team has seven home games against very beatable opponents. That said, the Knights might hit this without even winning a road game.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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Utah Utes
The last few years have been disappointing for Utah. Quarterback Cam Rising’s miserable injury luck got in the way of a Utes team that had the talent to do special things. Instead, Utah’s quarterback play was a nightmare, and the team looked bad everywhere else as a result. The Utes are now just 13-12 since losing in the Rose Bowl in 2022, and some of the program’s shine has worn off.
This year, Utah should get back on the map. Kyle Whittingham’s coaching career is coming to an end, but there’s still some hunger there. Whittingham is leaning into modernizing his offense, as he has Jason Beck, previously with New Mexico, coming over to change things up. Beck is bringing dynamic dual-threat signal caller Devon Dampier with him.
If the offensive changes work, the Utes could contend. They do have a tough schedule, but they’re a tough opponent.
Offense
In mid-July, Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel interviewed Utah State head coach Bronco Mendenhall on our live VSiN programming. JVT asked Mendenhall, who coached Dampier at New Mexico, what he thought of the new Utah quarterback. Mendenhall gushed about him, noting he has some of the star qualities that Bryce Perkins and Taysom Hill possessed. He then went on to say that Dampier might be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12.
Dampier is a special player. His passing needs some work, but he rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 scores last year. Don’t be surprised if he looks much better as both a passer and a runner behind a stacked Utah O-Line.
The Utes also have playmakers everywhere, including some proven transfers. So, this unit could do big things.
Defense
Whittingham’s teams are always fundamentally sound on this side of the ball, and the group has plenty of talent. Lander Barton might be the best linebacker in the country, and the Utes are pretty strong in the front seven, in general.
Utah is also in great shape in the secondary, even with some of last year’s studs taking big deals to go elsewhere.
Morgan Scalley should have another top 25 defense here.
Outlook
We know what we’re getting out of the Utah defense. That unit is going to be a nightmare to play against. But having a game-changing quarterback like Dampier could change everything for the Utes. That’s why I’m having a hard time getting myself worried about the team’s rough schedule. Utah is well-coached and loaded on both sides of the ball. The team is also impossible to beat at Rice-Eccles Stadium. So, not only should the Utes win eight games, but they might contend in this conference.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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West Virginia Mountaineers
Rich Rodriguez’s success at West Virginia ultimately landed him the Michigan job in 2008. Rodriguez won at least 10 games in his final three seasons in Morgantown, so he looked like he was ready for primetime. However, Rodriguez went just 15-22 in Ann Arbor, then he had an up-and-down six-year stretch with Arizona. That ended with Rodriguez being fired due to sexual harassment and hostile workplace accusations — which were dismissed in 2019.
Rodriguez was canned by Arizona in 2017 and had to wait until 2022 for another head coaching gig. That was a low-level job with Jacksonville State, but Rodriguez knocked it out of the park. In three seasons, Rodriguez racked up a 27-10 record with the Gamecocks.
Rodriguez is now back with his alma mater for the long haul. And now that they’re in the Big 12, there’s no reason he can’t win big. Though it won’t happen overnight.
Offense
West Virginia doesn’t have a single player back from last year’s offensive line. Rodriguez did bring in a bunch of bodies through the portal, but the team will only have one starter — Tulsa’s Walter Young Bear — that started games last year.
The questionable line makes it really hard to buy into this offense, even with running back Jahiem White back. The Mountaineers are unproven at quarterback and wide receiver, and they might not be able to run as well as they hope. The latter will be a problem with Rodriguez running a run-heavy spread.
Defense
There are fewer question marks on defense, where defensive coordinator Zac Alley will likely start six full-time starters from last year. Some of them come from the transfer portal, but it’s better than nothing.
The defensive line should be a strength, as tackle Edward Vesterinen had a good year for West Virginia last year. The team also brought in AAC DPOY Jimmori Robinson, who is an electric pass rusher at defensive end.
The team just has to hope that the linebackers and corners they landed in the portal hit. But there’s no reason they can’t.
Outlook
Rodriguez’s return to West Virginia is very similar to Frost’s return to UCF, but I don’t see the Year 1 results being there in Morgantown. If the Mountaineers win the Backyard Brawl against Pitt on September 13th, they should be 3-0. However, that’s not a given, and things get really difficult from there. A road game against UCF and home game against Colorado are the only two spots in which West Virginia should be confident. With that in mind, I see no reason not to go Under here. I don’t trust the offense.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
