Boise State vs. South Florida
Life without Ashton Jeanty begins with a very tricky Week 1 game, as Boise State vs. South Florida could have some College Football Playoff implications down the line. While the Bulls are hardly considered a premier non-conference opponent for the Broncos, it is a long trip to sultry Tampa for a Thursday evening clash that will get national eyes with ESPN on the call.
One Group of Five playoff berth is available with the expanded format. Boise State actually had a bye last year as the No. 3 seed in the Fiesta Bowl against Penn State, a game where they were clearly overmatched at the outset. To get back to the CFP, this game isn’t necessarily a must-win, but it would certainly help with a top-25 ranking hanging in the balance here and possibly moving forward.
How to Watch Boise State vs. South Florida
Where: ESPN
When: Thursday, August 28, 5:30 p.m. ET
Boise State vs. South Florida College Football Odds
Boise State -6 (-110) // South Florida +6 (-110)
Total: 63 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of August 25, 2 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Boise State vs. South Florida Game Preview
Boise State
Maddux Madsen and the Broncos enter the season as the favorite to be the Group of Five CFP representative at +180 at DraftKings. The next closest team outside of a Power Four conference (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12) is Tulane at +800. With an October 4 date with Notre Dame on the horizon, a loss here would dramatically lower Boise State’s margin for error.
Replacing 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns from Jeanty is no easy task, especially when Madsen, the incumbent starting QB, was the second-leading rusher with all of 221 yards. Top wideout Cameron Camper had nearly 300 more yards than the next closest receiver and he’s also out of the equation, so the Broncos will need to make up over 3,500 yards from their best running back and wide receiver.
They’ll make that attempt with new OC Nate Potter, who was the co-OC alongside Dirk Koetter last season, as the football lifer takes a senior analyst role within the program. Madsen is a nice piece to rebuild around, as the junior QB was third-team Mountain West last season with 3,018 passing yards and a 23/6 TD/INT ratio. TE Matt Lauter could have an NFL future with 47 grabs for 619 yards last season and redshirt, and former Texas A&M and Ole Miss transfer, junior Chris Marshall stands to get some targets.
At least the Boise State defense should keep shining with four of their top-five tacklers, including their best cover corner, back for DC Erik Chinander. Chinander’s first season was a good one with a decrease of 3.0 PPG and 0.4 YPP, but he will have to contend with a unit on the other side of the ball in line for some noteworthy regression.
South Florida
The Bulls reside in the American Conference and are looking for a leap in Year 3 under Alex Golesh. The Josh Heupel disciple oversaw modest improvement on both sides of the ball last season, as the offense scored 0.3 PPG more and had 0.7 more yards per carry. The defense improved by a little over two PPG and 0.3 yards per play. The idea would be to keep trending in a positive direction.
Here in Week 1, QB Byrum Brown is as healthy as he’s going to be after missing most of last season. Bryce Archie had a 9/10 TD/INT ratio, so Brown, who only had 132 pass attempts with two touchdowns, should be an instant upgrade. The Bulls did lose their top three running backs from last season, but the USF athletic department took out the money clip and shelled some out to Iowa State transfer Cartevious Norton and Oklahoma transfer Sam Franklin.
Unlike Boise State, USF’s biggest offensive loss is at wide receiver, where Sean Atkins had 79 catches, 50 more than anybody else, and 781 yards. Once again, the purse strings opened for Tennessee transfer Chas Nimrod, who knows the Heupel offense and should fit right in.
Defensively, this is a big year for Todd Orlando. He has a lot of returning experience, including his top three tacklers. But, the two biggest impact players – DB Brent Austin and DT Bernard Gooden – are among the losses. This was one of the better run defenses in the American, which could help here against the Broncos.
Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction
The heat and humidity could be a big factor in this one, as Boise State will face temps in the 90s and a heat index near 100 at kickoff. The line has moved in South Florida’s favor over the summer and early in game week. A prominent offshore even took the first plunge to 5.5 on Monday afternoon. Golesh has struggled against good teams at USF and Boise State is still a very good team. My Power Ratings say Boise State -7.5 and I think we’ll be surprised with their depth as backups become starters.
Pick: Boise State -6
