Week 10 MACtion Tuesday games feature Buffalo vs. Toledo and NIU vs. CMU
MACtion, baby! It’s time. Tuesday brings us the first weeknight MAC games of the season and the conference that started it all now gets the spotlight back. Two games are on docket for Tuesday and two more games are on the slate for Wednesday.
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We begin with Buffalo vs. Toledo and Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan. The MAC actually started weeknight games in 1999, but the phenomenon known as MACtion began over a decade ago when ESPN started to pick up the games and we had some big-time fireworks and offensive showcases. Maybe it has been watered-down a little bit now, but you still never know what you’re going to get.
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Odds as of 10/30, 1:30 p.m. PT
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets (-15.5, 52)
This is a big game for both teams, as Buffalo sits a half-game back in the MAC East standings and Toledo leads the MAC West Division. The Bulls are 3-1 in conference, but their performances have been a little underwhelming. They also have a loss to FCS Fordham on their ledger, but they’ve been able to win games and the bottom line is what matters when division and conference championships are the goal, along with the six wins needed for bowl eligibility.
Toledo is 4-0 in conference and 7-1 overall, but their MAC results have been underwhelming as well. The 18-point win over Western Michigan was a 24-14 deficit at half. The Rockets just beat a bad Ball State team by only seven points and they also have a win by just two points against Northern Illinois. The most recent win against Miami (OH) came in a game where RedHawks QB Brett Gabbert got hurt.
So, it’s hard to know how much to trust either one of these teams, but the Rockets haven’t looked like a team worthy of laying this big of a number. My personal Power Ratings do have 15.5, but Toledo has only won by more than that margin twice against FBS foes this season.
Buffalo’s yards per play differential is among the worst in the nation, as the Bulls rank 127th in yards per play on offense with 4.62 YPP and 94th on defense with 5.88. Meanwhile, Toledo has 6.39 YPP and has allowed 5.14 YPP on defense. However, their FBS YPP differential is 0.92. The FCS win over Texas Southern was a hugely lopsided game.
The Bulls have only allowed 4.31 YPP against MAC foes. Toledo is a step up, but I’m not sure the Rockets are playing at a level that breeds confidence in laying more than two touchdowns.
Pick: Buffalo +15.5
Other Tuesday Game
Northern Illinois (-5, 44.5) at Central Michigan: This line has been a climber, as NIU has moved to as high as -6 in the market, while DraftKings has topped out at -5.5. The Huskies have won three in a row and only lost by a deuce to Toledo to open MAC play. Central Michigan has beaten Akron and Eastern Michigan, who are among the worst teams in FBS, and lost to Buffalo and Ball State.
This is something of a lookahead spot for CMU, as they face Western Michigan next week with a win over EMU in their back pockets in the race for the Michigan MAC Trophy. But, the Chips also still need two wins for bowl eligibility and have Toledo and Ohio on the schedule, so every game does have some measure of importance.
CMU QB Jase Bauer did miss a snap due to injury last week, so we’ll see if the Chips have some ongoing concerns with that, especially with the line moving up. But, I don’t like anything here, as NIU is not a team I fully trust and this line keeps running.
