College Football Picks
Now that we’re into Week 4 college football picks, it feels like things are starting to stabilize, at least a little bit. The odds board was a bit more active over the first part of the week, as it also seems like others in the space are getting more confident in their numbers and assessments of the teams.
This week, we’ll get treated to more conference action than we’ve been seeing, but we also have some non-conference games as teams play one final tune-up before getting into the meat of the schedule. That does leave us with some really weird travel spots, as discussed on this week’s edition of The College Football Betting Podcast with Tim Murray and myself. Louisiana going from Lafayette to Ypsilanti to take on Eastern Michigan. UNLV going to Oxford, OH to take on Miami. BYU going from Provo to Greenville, NC to face East Carolina. Nevada going from Reno to Bowling Green to take on Western Kentucky.
Some quirky games to say the least and maybe there will be some good ways to take advantage of those games.
You can also check out our Week 4 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 4 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, September 17, 1:30 p.m. PT
Arkansas (-7, 62.5) at Memphis
Noon ET (ABC)
Memphis enters with an undefeated record, but they have not impressed me at all. The Tigers have 6.54 yards per play and 6.3 YPP against FBS foes, but Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis has only mustered two touchdown passes. He’s been running around a lot with 5.9 yards per carry, but I think it’s pretty clear that the Tigers will miss Mario Anderson Jr., Roc Taylor, and Demeer Blankumsee as the season goes along.
Actually, I think they’ll miss them this week against a very explosive Arkansas offense. The Razorbacks are humming with 8.3 YPP thus far and outgained Ole Miss last week by over 50 yards in the 41-35 loss. They were 9-of-12 on third down against the Rebels defense, but had the game’s lone turnover when they were going in for a potential game-winning TD. They also missed two field goals.
The Arkansas defense gets to see a mobile QB in practice all the time in Taylen Green, who has racked up nearly 1,200 all-purpose yards already, including 9.6 yards per carry on the ground. He also has 11 touchdown passes already. The quality of opponent hasn’t been stellar by any means – not that it has been for Memphis – but Bobby Petrino’s offense is humming.
To me, this is the game where Memphis’ losses from last season on offense really come to the forefront because they won’t be able to keep up. My Week 4 College Football Power Ratings put this line at -10 and I think even that might be a cheap line.
Pick: Arkansas -7 (-115)
North Carolina at UCF (-7, 47.5)
3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Bill Belichick is used to being on FOX, though not really as the head coach of a college football team. Still, his Tar Heels head to the Bounce House in Orlando for one more non-conference clash against UCF. The Knights were off last week, as they pumped NC A&T before the bye and eked out a very ugly win over Jacksonville State in Week 1.
North Carolina got gashed left and right by TCU in the opener, but I really believe that Josh Hoover is a top-20, maybe borderline top-15, QB in the nation and he’s going to be a guy getting some NFL Draft buzz as we go along. UCF doesn’t really have that in my opinion, even though I think Tayven Jackson is a fine player. Cam Fancher was also back at practice this week and he won the QB job over Jackson and Jacurri Brown. I don’t think he has a high ceiling at all.
I wouldn’t expect 87 or 60-yard runs from UCF here, which is what they got from Jaden Nixon and Brown in their first two games. They have 4.7 yards per carry otherwise against a completely rebuilt Gamecocks crew and a terrible FCS team. Meanwhile, while the class of competition hasn’t been very high, UNC has fixed some of the defensive issues that they had against TCU.
I also think that an experienced QB like Gio Lopez should improve each week and Max Johnson is a nice backup to have as well. Long story short, I’m not sure how good UCF is, but I’m confident that the Tar Heels’ talent level and coaching acumen should help them improve each week.
Some shops had +7. Others had +6.5. Circa and DraftKings both had 7 at extra juice. Shop around and get a 7. No sense in settling for 6.5.
Pick: North Carolina +7 (-115)
Toledo (-14, 50.5) at Western Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
My preseason prognostication of Western Michigan Over their season win total isn’t looking good at all. In my defense, I did not expect Lance Taylor to not have a defined QB by now, as the Broncos continue to rotate Broc Lowry and Brady Jones. Both guys have been objectively terrible, as the Broncos have a 50.7% completion rate for 366 yards with one touchdown and one pick. Lowry is the better scrambler with 125 yards on 23 attempts.
In fairness to WMU, I didn’t have high expectations for them against Michigan State, North Texas, and Illinois, but I also didn’t expect them to look this inept offensively. Now they play a MAC opponent before taking on Rhode Island and then getting into MAC play. I still think they can get to five or six wins with their MAC schedule, but I digress.
The play this week is the Under on the Broncos. Toledo has only surrendered 4.8 yards per play to FBS opponents, as they held Kentucky to a 13th percentile EPA/play and a 41% Success Rate in Week 1. The Rockets only gave up 4.9 YPP in that game and then played just as well or better defensively against Western Kentucky, who runs a dramatically different scheme than the Wildcats.
But, Toledo has shortcomings on offense. Junior Vandeross III is the only legit WR on the roster and he has 18 of the team’s 62 catches for 255 of their 768 yards. He had four of the seven receiving touchdowns. Nobody else has more than seven catches of 133 yards. They’ve run the ball really well for 5.3 yards per carry, but this is a step down in class for a Western Michigan defense that has been pushed around by two Big Ten programs.
I certainly don’t expect the Broncos to light up the scoreboard and create a bunch of explosive plays and I think they can slow Toledo down a bit. Somebody absolutely crushed this Under on Wednesday afternoon, presumably with some sort of service release. I still like it, even though it did go down a couple points.
Pick: Under 50.5
UTSA (-4.5, 59.5) at Colorado State
9:30 p.m. ET
Maybe this is a bad sign for UTSA, but they strike me as a team in line for some positive regression. They are 1-2 and did lose to Texas State in a very winnable game after losing to Texas A&M in a less winnable game. But, they haven’t turned the ball over at all yet and have only allowed two sacks. Owen McCown just hasn’t been able to find explosive plays in the passing game, as he had just 5.3 yards per attempt and 8.5 yards per reception from his receivers.
That also includes a 77-yard catch and run, so the true average is even worse than that. But, UTSA does have 6.4 yards per carry and I can’t help but think more passing lanes open up as a result of that. And they could very well open up against Colorado State, who was a below average defense last season and gave up over 500 yards to Washington in their opener.
UTSA was 1-for-6 on fourth down against Texas State, so that was a big reason why they lost. Now they’re stepping down in FBS class to face a Colorado State team that looks like it is led by a regressing QB in Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Two years ago, BFN had a 62% completion rate with 22 touchdowns. He had a 60.5% completion rate with 14 TD last season and that was with a really good WR in Tory Horton. He doesn’t have that player this season.
Through two games, Colorado State’s leading receiver is TE Jaxxon Warren with seven catches for 95 yards. The top WR has 49 yards. I have to think this is a spot for UTSA to show some improvements on defense and to also get some bigger plays out of the passing game. The elevation in Fort Collins could be a minor inconvenience for the boys from San Antonio, but it’s not like it will be cold or snowy or anything like that.
By month, UTSA went from 5.05 to 5.52 to 6.84 to 8.02 (bowl game) yards per play on offense last season. Historically, Jeff Traylor’s teams have gotten better later in the season. We’re not late in the season, but we are three games in and I think it’s time for them to start to improve. I have the Roadrunners a seven-point favorite.
Pick: UTSA -4.5
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