BYU Cougars:

BYU took a large step back in 2023 despite 15 returning starters from an eight-win team in 2022. This season, Kelani Sitake has 14 starters back, eight of which come on offense. The market does not expect much from the Cougars, but if certain pieces make an improvement this team could surprise some bettors this season.

Offense

The biggest question for BYU heading into the season is quarterback. Jake Retzlaff started four games for the Cougars last season, but they lost all four contests and he posted a 46.7 PFF passing grade in those games. The favorite to start is Gerry Bohanon, who has not played since 2022. Neither inspires confidence, and it could be another rough season at the most important position for Sitake.

 

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LJ Martin returns at running back, and he could be the Cougars’ best weapon. Martin started four games and led the team in rushing (546 yards, 4.8 yards per carry). Only two starters are gone from the offensive line in front of Martin, so it would not be out of the question to expect him to push for 1,000 yards this season. Six of the top seven receivers from last season are back as well. 

BYU was 131st in EPA per play on offense and 130th in EPA per dropback in 2023. Much of that stemmed from abysmal quarterback play.  The position does not look much better this season, but it is likely this unit will improve, as it is hard to be the worst in consecutive seasons.

Defense

BYU was not great on defense, but it did have some strength. The Cougars were 67th in opponent EPA on early downs. They forced 20 turnovers as well. Only six starters are back from that group, but some of the returning production played pivotal roles in their limited success.

The best player in this unit is defensive end Tyler Batty. He led BYU in tackles (57), pressures (34) and sacks (5.5). Batty is back along the defensive line for 2023, but he is one of just two starters back at the position.

BYU’s biggest issue will be on the backend. The team was 96th in opponent EPA per dropback, and three starters from last season are back in the fold. Some were young, but rolling back out a secondary that was among the worst in college football could be a problem in 2024.

Outlook

There is some talent for BYU, but Sitake could be in for another down season. The Cougars drew nearly every contender in the Big 12 this season. They go to Utah and UCF in conference play. Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all go to Provo. Add in some tough non-conference opponents such as SMU and Wyoming—both on the road—and asking this group for five wins seems like a foolish endeavor.

Pick: Under 4.5 wins

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