BYU vs. Texas Tech
We think of bid stealers as being a college basketball concept, but we have the college football version in the Big 12 Championship Game. Based on the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, No. 4 Texas Tech is in no matter what. With an upset victory here, BYU would automatically make the field as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Suffice it to say that there’s a lot on the line for BYU vs. Texas Tech in Jerry World.
This is one of four Saturday title games that serves as a regular season rematch, a game that Texas Tech won and controlled in Lubbock. If they’re able to do the same here, it will be a very good thing for a bubble team like Notre Dame, who needs status quo this weekend to feel good about their CFP standing. But, the Cougars want the upset to finish what has been an eventful week in Provo and one that made their head coach a whole lot richer.
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BYU vs. Texas Tech (-13, 49.5) Preview
Saturday, Noon ET (ABC)
The fiasco that has been the Penn State coaching search centered on BYU boss Kalani Sitake, at least for a few hours before the CEO of Crumbl Cookies and others got involved to help the Cougars keep their coach just days ahead of their opportunity to crash the CFP party. With that bump in the road taken care of, the Cougars could get back to prepping for a Red Raiders bunch that handled them pretty thoroughly back on November 8.
It was a 29-7 win for Texas Tech, who would have won by a lot more if they could have converted in the red zone. The lads from Lubbock settled for five field goals in the game and held a 113-yard edge. Texas Tech absolutely left points on the field, but some credit belongs to BYU’s defense for holding strong in the scoring areas, despite a -3 TO margin.
Texas Tech got a lot of their offensive production on a handful of explosive plays, as they had two runs in excess of 30 yards and two pass plays in excess of 30 yards. Otherwise, it was a bit of a grind, as the team only ran for 3.5 yards per carry overall and QB Behren Morton was sacked four times.
The highly-regarded Texas Tech defense only mustered one sack and four tackles for loss, but the secondary did break up seven of Bear Bachmeier’s passes. He finished with just 188 yards on 38 pass attempts and the Cougars’ longest play was just 21 yards. The total for the title game is similar to the one from the regular season game, which closed 50 at most sportsbooks.
The spread has been adjusted a bit, as Texas Tech predominantly closed -13.5 at home and they are -13 here on a neutral. BYU should travel well to this game and Lubbock is a bit of a hike from Arlington, so this should actually be a pretty balanced crowd.
Statistically, Texas Tech is the best defense in the nation in EPA/play per CFB Graphs, while BYU ranks in the top 15. The Cougars actually have the better offense from an EPA/play standpoint, but it is worth noting that Texas Tech’s game control metrics are a lot stronger and they’ve also used three quarterbacks this season with injuries to Morton and Will Hammond.
In a more traditional sense, Texas Tech is 13 spots higher than BYU in yards per play, outgaining the Cougars by about 0.4 yards overall, but both teams racked up thoroughly impressive numbers in non-conference play before averaging fewer than six yards per play against Big 12 foes.
The Red Raider defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed and the Cougar defense is 35th, allowing over a yard per play more. They’ve allowed nearly 1.5 more YPP in Big 12 games than Texas Tech, so that’s where the huge difference lies in this game.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Prediction
As great as Texas Tech is in so many facets, the red zone has been an issue. It was an issue in the first meeting and they enter this game just 89th in the nation in TD% inside the 20. BYU has a top-10 red zone defense by TD% and I think that allows them to keep this game close in what should be a defensive struggle. I lean towards the Under in this one, which makes getting a 13-point head start with the underdog very attractive.
It’s not a big edge by any means, as I make the line 11, but it’s been impressive to see what BYU has done after that Texas Tech loss, outscoring TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF 111-48. Obviously none of those teams are on Texas Tech’s level, but they showed resilience and locking in Sitake has to be a bit of a boost.
Pick: BYU +13
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