Cal vs. UNLV:

Programs in a state of change come together at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California for the LA Bowl. The Cal Golden Bears and UNLV Rebels play in the second of two December 18 bowls. This line has had a couple of violent swings based on two major developments since the end of the regular season.

First, Cal became a big favorite when former UNLV head coach Barry Odom took the same job at Purdue. Then the line swung back violently when Cal QB Fernando Mendoza announced his intention to transfer. Now, we’re in the ballpark of where the number started, with the game lined at pick ‘em across most of the market.

 

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LA Bowl: Cal Golden Bears vs. UNLV Rebels (PK, 48)

Wednesday Dec. 18, 9 p.m. ET

Cal opened -1.5 in this one at DraftKings before Cal money drove the line as high as -4. Circa in Las Vegas opened Cal -3 and the line got up to -4.5 before it swung back down when Mendoza posted about his transfer. He had 386 of the team’s 425 pass attempts and tossed for more than 3,000 yards with a 16/6 TD/INT ratio. The question now is whether or not CJ Harris or Chandler Rogers get the opportunity to start.

Rogers and Harris are both experienced. Rogers started two years ago at UL Monroe and last year at North Texas, posting a combined 44/12 TD/INT ratio with nearly 5,800 yards. Harris was the backup to Kurtis Rourke at Ohio, so he didn’t play a lot, but he has filled in and has been around the collegiate game for a while. Rogers was hurt in the regular season finale, so who knows if he can play. There hadn’t been a lot reported as of Monday afternoon.

Harris and freshman EJ Caminong have been seen getting most of the practice reps for a team that fired OC Mike Bloesch. But, QB isn’t the only question mark. Leading rusher Jaivian Thomas, who had 6.6 yards per carry and dramatically outshined Jadyn Ott, missed the regular season finale against SMU. Ott only had 2.9 yards per carry after rushing for 1,305 yards last season. Leading WR Nzyiah Hunter (40-578-5) is also in the portal.

With some OL injuries and portal players, Cal’s offense is just in such a huge state of disarray. The tough part about the handicap here is that Justin Wilcox is a sharp defensive mind and Cal was 27th in yards per play allowed at 5.00. As a first-year ACC member, with a miserable travel schedule and a lot of decent offenses, the Golden Bears hung in there and allowed 5.33 YPP in conference action.

The ACC is clearly a better league than the Mountain West, but UNLV had a top-30 offense by yards per play. QB Hajj-Malik Williams is sticking around and the Rebels should get a boost from a truly outstanding hire in Dan Mullen. WR coach Del Alexander is the interim here in what will also be the last game for OC Brennan Marion, who is going to be on the move.

Williams posted a 17/5 TD/INT ratio and 1,845 yards after Matthew Sluka left the program following some NIL miscommunication. Sluka was a solid runner (6.5 YPC), but a terrible passer (43.8% completion rate), so Williams has been more of a legitimate dual-threat QB. He’s the team’s second-leading rusher and was a far more polished passer. He and the offense are pretty much intact for this game coming off of the 21-7 loss to Boise State.

While Odom, a brilliant defensive mind, won’t be there, 31-year-old Michael Scherer has done an incredible job as the DC and he’s still there, at least for this game. Outside of the 44-41 loss to Syracuse, the Rebels did pretty well against the better offenses that they faced, including the 23-20 win over Kansas earlier this year.

UNLV hasn’t won a bowl game since 2000. The players are mostly staying and Mullen is a huge hire. I think they have way more momentum as a program than Cal and a much more committed roster in this one.

Pick: UNLV PK

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