Central Michigan vs. Northwestern
The only thing that keeps Central Michigan vs. Northwestern from feeling like a non-conference game in September is the fact that it will be played in Detroit. The GameAbove Sports Bowl has a MAC vs. Big Ten matchup and we often get games like that early in the season when Power Four schools are looking for an opponent and Group of Five schools are looking for a paycheck to fund more athletic endeavors. This is actually just the second time that these schools have played, with the only other meeting back in 2010.
This is the first of three games from an ESPN tripleheader on Friday and the lead-in to what is a very busy couple of days, as we’ll have eight bowl games on Saturday. Of that set of games, this one has the biggest line, with the Wildcats laying double digits against the Chippewas.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 22, 1:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern (-10.5, 43.5)
Friday, Dec. 26, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Trickles of tickets have come in on the Chips here, as this line has shrunk a little bit from where it originally came out. The low total probably has something to do with it, as Central Michigan is one of the run-heaviest offenses in the nation. Collectively, CMU QBs only had 229 pass attempts and the team racked up 511 rush attempts, including 103 for Angel Flores, who was second on the team in rushes, but only had 27 pass attempts.
Flores was hurt late in the season, but it seems as though he will play here, so the Wildcats have to deal with a two-quarterback system, as primary passer Joe Labas will also get some action. He posted a 12/6 TD/INT ratio with a 68.9% completion rate. The Chippewas only surrendered 19 sacks and Flores’ mobility and his 70.4% completion rate in limited attempts should make things a bit difficult for the opposing defense.
Northwestern didn’t really get what they expected out of Preston Stone, as the SMU transfer only had a 14/12 TD/INT ratio with a completion percentage shy of 60% during the 6-6 campaign. The Wildcats were limited on explosives in the passing game as well, as Stone’s longest play was just 49 yards. He only took 16 sacks, so Northwestern was good on that front and also rushed for 4.7 yards per carry, so we are likely to see a lot of running and ball control here.
One thing that bettors need to keep in mind here is that Northwestern played the 36th-ranked strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin, while Central Michigan played the 128th. That means it is important to put the stats in the proper context. Central Michigan allowed 5.42 yards per play, while Northwestern allowed 5.75. Even with the disparate strengths of schedule, Northwestern only allowed 0.1 more yards per carry than Central Michigan. In a game that should feature a lot of runs, that seems significant.
The two teams were also identical from a YPP standpoint on offense. Per CFB Graphs, Northwestern was 102nd in Run Rate Over Expected, a nod to how much they ran the football. Central Michigan was 132nd, as they ran the ball 16.4% more often than expected based on down, distance, and game state. All four of the teams with a higher RROE were option teams, including Rice among the service academies.
The Chippewas only had a 53.66% success rate scoring touchdowns in the red zone and Northwestern was only at 44.44%. The only teams worse in the red zone than Northwestern were Ball State, Nevada, Sam Houston State, UMass, and Maryland. Defensively, CMU was much stronger in the red zone, but the SOS discrepancy definitely plays a role there.
Central Michigan vs. Northwestern GameAbove Sports Bowl Prediction
Northwestern should be the stronger team in the trenches just by virtue of being a Big Ten school with more resources on the recruiting trail and with their portal pursuits. But, you are getting a two-score head start with the Chippewas in a game that projects to effectively have a running clock. Central Michigan has also been much more effective with Flores on the active roster and that seems like the case here.
Pick: Central Michigan +10.5
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