Week 2 CFB Line Moves and Late-Week Bets from the T Shoe Index:

The NFL starts today, and you get my best bet on that game in my NFL Best Bets article, but first, we’ve got some notable line moves in college football that are going to result in some additional bets for me this week, used in conjunction with my T Shoe Index projections, of course. At this point in the week, I’m looking for lines that have moved and created value on the other side of the steam. On sides, I generally like to see 3+ points of movement to qualify for this angle, and 4+ points of movement on totals. It is important to reiterate I would never blindly bet anything. This is merely and angle that I use in conjunction with TSI projections to basically say, “TSI and Oddsmakers’ are on the same side of the line now by several points, it’s worth a look.”

Here are this week’s movers that have my attention:

 

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Virginia Tech (-20.5, 52) vs. Marshall

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CW)

My dad has been a season ticket holder for the Thundering Herd my entire life. In fact, we went to Virginia Tech in 2002 to see Byron Leftwich and the Herd get smacked by the Hokies. Anyway, he’ll be thrilled this one made the article today. Circa opened this game Virginia Tech -14, and we’re now north of 20. That’s about a 7% implied probability increase for the Hokies, which is insane. TSI projects Virginia Tech -11, and if we’ve learned anything over the first 1.5 weeks of the season, it’s that the ACC is not very good – not that the Sun Belt is anything to write home about, in fairness.

I always like to look at numbers any way I can to try to see “How can this bet lose?” so I made a projection using just 2024 data (all one game of it) to see what TSI thought of these teams after a week, and it spit out Marshall as a 16 point winner. Obviously, I’d never rely solely on a one-game sample size, but as a cherry on top of the actual projection, I thought it was worth mentioning. I would’ve liked Marshall at +14, and I’ll gladly take the 7% edge for free here, thanks to an overzealous market. I’d obviously love a 21 here, but I won’t be greedy.

Week 2 CFB Best Bet: Marshall +20.5

Old Dominion vs East Carolina (-2.5, 55)

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

After opening at Circa with a line of Old Dominion -3, we’ve seen a 5.5-point swing through zero to ECU -2.5, which is about a 17% (!) swing in implied probability in this game. TSI projects Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite, so I technically would’ve leaned ODU out of the gate, but I certainly will take the additional 17% edge here. The just-for-fun-2024-data-only projection said ODU -10.5, FWIW. We’ve actually also seen the Over get steamed from 49.5 to 55, with a TSI projection of just 44 (and a 2024-only projection of 38). I’m not into same-game parlays, but if that’s your cup of tea, I just laid one out for you on a silver platter. 

Week 2 CFB Best Bets: Old Dominion +2.5, Under 55

Memphis (-18.5, 57.5) vs. Troy

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Memphis is coming off a 40-0 win over North Alabama, while Troy is coming off a 26-28 loss to Nevada. I’m not surprised to see the spread moving in favor of Memphis, despite just a -10.5 projection on the game from TSI, as Memphis is a bigger brand-name team and Troy is only in game 2 of a new coaching regime; however, what shocks me is that this total has climbed from 50.5 at Circa to now 57.5. TSI projects just 50 points in this game (and just 47 with just 2024 data), so right in lockstep with the Circa oddsmakers, but the market has driven this up a full touchdown and XP, which is about a 33% implied probability edge in our favor. I may also end up taking Troy, but I’m content grabbing this Under for now.

Week 2 CFB Best Bet: Under 57.5

For more College Football Week 2 predictions, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub at VSiN.com.

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