Monday’s CFP national title game between Ohio State and Notre Dame offers a classic matchup of traditional college football powers. Both teams have enjoyed phenomenal three-game runs to work their way through the bracket, and both are 3-0 SU and ATS in the CFP. Both teams also boast incredible defenses, and in terms of effective points per game allowed, they ranked #2 and #3 in the country, according to my numbers. It is on the offensive side of the ball where oddsmakers seem to be giving the Buckeyes the edge in both talent and execution, and this is the reason why they are installed as 8.5-point favorites as of Thursday. If recent history is any indication, that is advantage: OSU. Favorites have swept the last five national title games, both SU and ATS, winning all of them by at least 15 points. Can the Big Ten wrap up a second straight title? Let’s take a look at some of the key trends, facts, and figures, and I’ll give my take on Monday’s contest at the conclusion of the piece.

 

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Including a 3-0 SU and ATS record in 2025 so far in bowl games, Independent teams are on remarkable bowl game stretches of 18-7 SU in the last 25 and 17-6 ATS in the last 23.
This record does not include Notre Dame’s CFP first-round win over Indiana, but in general, the Irish’s resurgence in bowl games lately has been a boon to the Independent ranks. They are on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in bowl games, all against power conference foes. Their CFP semifinal game win was against another Big Ten foe: Penn State.

Including 3-0 SU and ATS this year, Ohio State is on a 17-9 ATS surge in bowl games overall
For as much pressure as is put on Ryan Day for his inability to beat rival Michigan lately, his teams have come up big in the postseason, particularly in the big bowl games in January, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine.

Favorites have won five straight championship games SU and ATS after losing six straight ATS
There was a stretch of six straight underdog covers in the national championship game from 2014-19. However, the favorites have turned it around in the last five years. All five games were decided by double-digits, and the average margin of victory for favorites in that span was a lofty 27.8 PPG.

Big Ten teams are 3-3 SU and ATS in national title games since 2006
This will be the first time that an Independent team will have played in a title game in the BCS/CFP era. Ohio State is very experienced when it comes to this big stage, having played in the title game five times since 2003, winning twice. However, the Buckeyes lost their only title game appearance when favored, 41-14 to Florida in 2007.

Favorites of 5 points or more are just 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS in national title contests since 1999
Including the Buckeyes’ loss in 2007 noted above, it hasn’t been a big reward to be favored heavily in the national championship game. There is a great deal of pressure that comes with it and a whole lot of motivation that goes to the underdog. That said, there were two big favorites as part of the current five-game SU and ATS winning streak by the chalk, so perhaps we are seeing a turning of the tide.

Outright winners are just 8-3 ATS in the last 10 national championship games
If you got to read any of the bowl game trends I published on VSiN over the last month, you can probably recall that there are some bowl series in which the outright winner of the games has covered the point spread over 20 times in a row. Such has not been the case in title games, as outright winners are just 8-3 ATS in the last 11 years. Remember, the ultimate goal is winning this game, not so much being decisive about it. This is something to keep in mind with a point spread over 8 points like the one we are looking at for Monday.

Teams failing to score 21 points in national title games are 1-15 SU and ATS
The 21-point benchmark has been a critical one in determining whether or not a team has a good chance of winning or covering a point spread in these title games. Case in point: last year, Washington came up well short in producing just 13 points. Can you foresee either of this year’s teams failing to reach 21 points? The line/total combination of -8.5/46.5 suggests a final score of 27.5-19 in favor of Ohio State, so the “experts” are not expecting Notre Dame to score well. Another stat to watch here is that Ohio State held teams about 23 points below their season averages. If that holds, the Irish would be due for about 16 points.

Teams scoring 31 points in national title games are 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS
On the other side of the high-scoring benchmark, 31 points is the target. Georgia won its back-to-back titles by scoring 33 and 65. Michigan scored 34 a year ago. By the odds, Ohio State is “supposed to” get 27.5. Interestingly, the Buckeyes reached the 31-point mark in 11 of their 15 games, while the Irish did so nine times but in none of the last three.

Breakdown of nat’l title total results <55: 10-4 Over, >54.5: 7-5 Under
These championship games have been high-scoring, as it typically takes a very good offense to arrive on this stage. If you go back through the list of the last 12 games, 13 of the 24 combatants have scored more than 30 points. The offenses typically come prepared, and both of this year’s teams are explosive. It would seem that the defenses are the better units in this game, but don’t forget, it looked the same in the Notre Dame-Penn State semifinal contest, and the teams erupted for 31 fourth-quarter points. Don’t prematurely discount two title-worthy offenses.

Bettors are 4-1 ATS in the last five national title games when moving lines towards a side
Following line moves in recent championship games would have been a pretty sound strategy. In the case of the 2024 game, DraftKings opened the game at Michigan -4.5, and it finished there at kickoff. For this year, Ohio State opened at -9.5 and has been bet downward to -8.5. Be sure to continue to follow this up until kickoff as it can change.

Bettors are on a 0-11-1 slide in national title games when moving totals
Bettors have really struck out in these national championship games when it comes to the totals over the last decade, as they have lost all 10 games that didn’t result in a push. For 2024, DraftKings opened the game at 56, and it closed at 56.5, meaning bettors favored the Over. It lost handily in a 34-13 decision. This year’s game finds bettors favoring the Over, with the number moving from 46 at opener to 46.5 most recently. Continue to follow this up until kickoff, as obviously 0-11-1 warrants your attention.

Ohio State is on a 6-1 ATS surge vs. dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 15.0 points per game
These opponents are the best of the best. As maligned as head coach Ryan Day has been with Ohio State, his team has been ultra-successful against the best teams they have faced, minus Michigan, of course. Statistically speaking, Notre Dame had a tremendous season, outscoring opponents 37.0-14.3 per game on average. It will be a test for OSU, but one the Buckeyes have thrived in.

Notre Dame is 14-0-1 ATS in its last 15 games revenging a loss
This is an incredible angle, and I haven’t seen too many people this past week looking back at the tight 17-14 contest played last season in Columbus between these teams. Notre Dame was not physically overwhelmed in that game, and the yardage totals (356-351 OSU) tell the story of a game that was every bit as close as the score indicated. The loss that day is just another source of fuel that head coach Marcus Freeman figures to utilize to motivate his team for Monday night.

Ohio State is 18-8-1 Over the total in its last 27 games vs. teams riding winning streaks of at least six games or more

Notre Dame is 13-6 Over in its last 19 games vs. solid rushing defense yielding less than 3.35 yards per carry
These trends focus on what I believe to be two of the more important factors about Monday’s game, those being the degree to which Notre Dame is red-hot currently, and the success that the Irish will need to have in running the football against the Buckeyes to compete. Both are among the top total angles on the entire VSiN.com matchup page for this game, and both are pointing Over.

Steve’s take on 2025 CFP Championship Game

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

For me, my best bets in both of the semifinal games came down to strength ratings. I feel I was right on both, although I lost with Texas. That game was much closer than the 14-point final score margin indicated, and anyone watching the game intently like I did cannot argue that point. Two plays literally decided such a crucial game. Well, for this title game contest, I again stick to my guns in believing that my strength ratings tell the story since the teams are so prepared that rarely do we see anything that significantly upsets the proceedings. 

With that in mind, as I look at my strength ratings for this Notre Dame-Ohio State clash, my Power Ratings show the number essentially overpriced by almost 4 points in all three ratings sets.  My PR says OSU -4.8, the real line is -8.5. My Effective Strength Ratings and Bettors Ratings are just a touch higher at OSU -4.9. I love the fact that all three ratings are remarkably consistent. In my opinion, this Irish team remains undervalued and has been nearly all season long, as since the loss to Northern Illinois, they’ve gone 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS. USC was the only opponent to put up more than 24 points on the Irish defense. I love how head coach Freeman was able to get his team to respond offensively after halftime against a stout Penn State defense. 

My biggest concern for those laying points here remains with Buckeyes’ QB Will Howard. He struggled against the three physically imposing defenses he faced this year in Michigan, Penn State, and Texas. Notre Dame presents another huge challenge for head coach Ryan Day’s team. Unless the Buckeyes change something dramatically and find a way to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith more than they did last game, I can’t see them separating. With the longer-term history of the title game showing favorites of 5 points or more just 5-11 ATS in the last 16, I’ll call for another tight one here.

CFP National Championship Best Bet: I’ll go with Notre Dame +8.5 in the CFP title game with a lesser lean on Over 46.5. Let’s say 28-24 OSU.

VIEW HISTORICAL ATS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME RESULTS HERE

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