Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Bettors who took advantage of Mississippi in the first-round CFP game against Tulane had a pretty telling regular season data point to go off of and it was a pretty similar outcome. Bettors digging into this Ole Miss vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl game also have a regular season data point for reference. By no means does the first meeting guarantee that the second meeting will go that way, but it is hard to ignore as we head into the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup between these SEC rivals.
Ole Miss pummeled Tulane 45-10 during the regular season and won 41-10 in Pete Golding’s first game as head coach. With the Lane Kiffin soap opera serving as a rallying cry, the Rebels jumped out 14-0 very quickly and kept adding on as the game went along. The Bulldogs will provide a much stiffer test to say the least and the scars of Kiffin’s departure, and the accompanying chips on the Rebels’ shoulders, may have healed.
Is a fresh Bulldogs bunch going to be too much to overcome? Or will the Rebels, whose only loss this season is to Georgia, get revenge?
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 27, 11:45 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-7, 56.5)
Thursday, Jan. 1, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Just about the entire betting market was sitting on 6.5 at time of writing, but Circa made the move to 7 in search of some Ole Miss money. The aforementioned regular season data point was quite the game, as Georgia won 43-35, scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on three long, backbreaking drives to erase a nine-point deficit entering the final 15.
Georgia had 34 first downs in that game and held the ball for nearly 38 minutes, as Ole Miss had 351 yards on just 60 offensive plays, but Georgia had 510 yards in total, including 221 on the ground. In that Oct. 18 matchup, Georgia closed around a touchdown favorite at home. Now they’re around a touchdown favorite in a neutral setting in New Orleans at the Superdome.
Interestingly, even though Golding was the DC under Kiffin, Ole Miss did give up 421 yards in the rematch against the Green Wave after only allowing 282 in the first game. Tulane’s first three drives were fairly successful, as they threw a pick just outside the red zone, had a turnover on downs, and kicked a 39-yarder. It wasn’t all garbage time production, though the final drive was 80 yards over four plays. It was a 41-10 game, but Tulane turned it over three times and had four more turnovers on downs.
In other words, looks can be a little bit deceiving, especially when you consider Ole Miss was just 3-of-10 on third down, even with Charlie Weis Jr. loaned back to the Rebels from Kiffin’s coaching staff at LSU.
Trinidad Chambliss’ future at Ole Miss remains murky, as he’s appealed the NCAA for a sixth year of eligibility. He’s certainly been a difference maker this season for the Rebels, racking up just shy of 3,300 passing yards and another 506 on the ground with 27 total touchdowns. Having a stud running back like Kewan Lacy doesn’t hurt, as he’s scored 21 times and rushed for 1,366 yards. Lacy did injure his shoulder against Tulane, but it seems like he’ll be ready.
For being a 12-1 team and the SEC champ by avenging the regular season loss to Alabama, this seems like one of the least-discussed Georgia teams we’ve had in recent memory. It might be because there aren’t a lot of individual stats that jump off the page. Gunner Stockton has done very well with a 70.7% completion rate and a 23/5 TD/INT ratio while sitting nine yards short of 2,700. Zachariah Branch has been far and away his favorite target with 73 catches, nearly triple any other pass-catcher, but he only has 744 yards.
Georgia will likely eclipse 2,500 rushing yards for the season here, but their top rusher, Nate Frazier, only has 861. The Bulldogs, kind of like the Ohio State Buckeyes, have looked at a lot of guys as the season has gone along in hopes of being fresh and healthy come playoff time. That’s where they seem to be right now.
While Ole Miss is a top-15 team by yards per play on offense, Georgia is outside the top 60. The Rebels have outgained the Bulldogs by nearly a full yard per play. The gap, though, was considerably smaller in SEC play, as the Rebels were +0.38 YPP on offense over the Bulldogs. That includes Georgia’s rather pedestrian 4.43 YPP against Alabama in the SECCG.
Georgia is better in most defensive departments, as they’ve allowed 4.78 YPP to Mississippi’s 5.27. The gap was bigger in SEC play and Ole Miss gave up nearly six yards per play to Tulane in the first round. What is interesting about these two defenses, and maybe evident in that 43-35 regular season meeting, is that Georgia only had 12 takeaways and Ole Miss only had 14. Both teams enter this game even in turnover margin.
Georgia’s defense has allowed 1.41 fewer yards per carry, so Chambliss is going to have to shine in the passing game here. In the first game, Ole Miss only had 88 rushing yards (42 from Chambliss) and he threw for 263 yards on just 19 completions.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl Prediction
Will the red zone be the deciding factor in this game? Ole Miss currently has 72 trips into the red zone and 45 touchdowns. Georgia has 53 trips into the red zone and 42 touchdowns. The Bulldogs rank second in the nation in TD% in the red zone and it does appear that both teams may have some success moving the ball if the first game is any indication. Kirby Smart seems to have a pretty big coaching advantage here over Golding and a patchwork staff more than halfway out the door in some cases.
Pick: Georgia -7 (get 6.5 if you can)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college football games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our Bowl Game Betting Hub for more previews and predictions.
