College Football 2025 Results from the Makinen Strength Ratings:
There is no other question I’m asked more from VSiN readers than that concerning the different sets of strength ratings I publish. Specifically, how do I use these ratings for my betting? My answer is never straight forward unfortunately, as there is no perfect way to utilize them. It becomes a gut-feel type of process after analyzing them for a period of time. That said, I am also often asked, “How are they doing?” Well, I usually respond with “you will win more than you lose by just blindly following them.”
For the purposes of this article, I’m going to address that particular subject today to give you a better feel of just how you might start utilizing them. The numbers I am looking at were the college and pro football figures through last weekend’s games. Hopefully, it helps you wade through this weekend’s games, understanding what has worked best. A tip: My Power Ratings for FBS games have hit at a 273-229-11 ATS mark, good for 54.4%, and my Effective Strength Ratings projections are 53.7% for FBS games! That’s hard to beat.
The strength ratings I offer are essentially very similar to other power ratings, statistical metrics, and other strength indicators you’ll find offered by other sources. They are simply gauges for determining how good teams are. For each of the sports I offer them for, each rating point essentially equals a point on the field or court, and can thus be used to determine who should win in a given matchup and by how much.
Naturally, because I offer three different sets of numbers on the VSiN pages title MATCHUP RATINGS, in addition to the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings I’ve been sharing in articles lately, each of these numbers can vary, and can offer conflicts for any number of contests. The important thing to know here is that they are each derived from different formulas. Thus, conflicts are natural, as oddsmakers also tend to rely on a varied set of data to set their numbers. Misses across the board are rare. Thus, it takes a sharp eye or betting savvy to pick the numbers apart.
Before sharing the various results in the 2025 season for the different strength ratings I offer, I thought it would be best to point you to the spots where you can see these ratings on the VSiN website. They are here:
College Football Makinen Weekly Ratings
These weekly ratings are the formulated game projections I provide on a weekly basis using my Power Ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, and Bettors’ Ratings. These are the numbers that I am analyzing for this article.
Makinen CFB Power Ratings
The CFB Power Ratings are the raw ratings for every team in FBS and FCS that I use to formulate the projections above. Looking at the numbers from this perspective gives readers a macro view of how I gauge all the teams. The Power Rating is somewhat of a manually adjusted number I derive from analyzing box scores of games, the Effective Strength Ratings are a metric based upon scoring stats and schedule strength. The Bettors’ Ratings are a calculation of how the betting market gauges a team based upon closing lines and past opponents. The Recent Ratings are a calculation of Effective Strength in recent games. The Strength of Schedule shows the average power rating of the opponents a team has faced to date.
It’s important to understand the differences in the various ratings before blindly following them in any given sport, thus the further explanation above. With that in mind, I pored through the database of the Strength Ratings I have uploaded to the VSiN database this season and compared them to the finishing lines and actual results of games played. The following is a synopsis of the results and some of the highlights/lowlights.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ’25 SEASON RESULTS
Power Ratings
Money Lines
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Power Ratings have produced these money line records – ALL GAMES
When PR’s project the home team to win outright: 588-133 SU (81.6%)
When PR’s project the road team to win outright: 261-110 SU (70.4%)
When PR’s project the winner in a neutral field game: 13-5 SU (72.2%)
Combined: 862-248 SU (77.7%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 472-165 SU (74.1%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 390-83 SU (82.5%)
In FBS GAMES: 388-127 SU (75.3%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 116-4 SU (96.7%)
In FCS GAMES: 358-117 SU (75.4%)
In GAMES with Point spreads >7 points: 582-83 SU (87.5%)
In GAMES with Point spreads <=7 points: 280-165 SU (62.9%)
When PR’s Project an UPSET WIN by underdog team: 29-32 SU (47.5%) – this has produced a profit of +6.5 units for +10.7%.
Point Spreads
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Power Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note that all ATS ties or tie projections are not counted.
When PR’s project the home team to win ATS: 321-272 ATS (54.1%)
When PR’s project the road team to win ATS: 242-240 ATS (50.2%)
When PR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 10-8 ATS (55.6%)
Combined: 573-520 ATS (52.6%)
This is a pretty solid record for picking games based on power ratings against the point spread, and theoretically would have a bettor even for the season with nothing else considered and 10% juice.
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 324-298 ATS (52.1%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 249-222 ATS (52.9%)
In FBS GAMES: 273-229 ATS (54.4%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 64-56 ATS ATS (53.3%)
In FCS GAMES: 236-235 ATS (50.1%)
In GAMES with Point spreads >7 points: 352-307-5 SU (53.4%)
In GAMES with Point spreads <=7 points: 221-213 SU (50.9%)
If you utilize the Weekly Matchup Ratings currently, you would know that there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Power Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual line. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in college football from to Power Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 194-178 ATS (52.2%).
Effective Strength Ratings
Point Spreads
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Effective Strength Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note that all ATS ties or tie projections are not counted.
When ESR’s project the home team to win ATS: 293-245 ATS (54.5%)
When ESR’s project the road team to win ATS: 264-269 ATS (49.5%)
When ESR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 11-6 ATS (64.7%)
Combined: 568-520 ATS (52.2%)
This is again a solid record for picking games based on Effective Strength Ratings against the point spread, being as how it’s a 100% statistical formula used to create the rating, and oddsmakers surely use similar methodology in creating their numbers. My formulas theoretically give bettors a 2.2% advantage over their point spreads, otherwise known as the great equalizer.
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 323-296 ATS (52.2%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 245-224 ATS (52.2%)
In FBS GAMES: 267-230 ATS (53.7%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 63-57 ATS (52.5%)
In FCS GAMES: 238-233 ATS (50.5%)
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is an Effective Strength Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual line. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in college football from to Effective Strength Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 253-244 ATS (50.9%). Note that this is a lesser winning percentage than that of the Power Ratings on a larger sample of games.
Totals
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Effective Strength Ratings have produced these records on totals – ALL GAMES. Note that all FT ties or tie projections are not counted.
When ESR’s projected OVER the total: 289-260 (52.6%)
When ESR’s projected UNDER the total: 298-253 (54.1%)
Combined: 587-513 ATS (53.4%)
I am very pleased with this result so far, and it gives us some good foundation to look into even more effective spots to use the ESR projections for our totals wagering.
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 340-288 (54.1%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 247-225 (52.3%)
In FBS GAMES: 271-238 ATS (53.2%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 61-57 (51.7%)
In FCS GAMES: 255-218 ATS (53.9%)
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is an Effective Strength Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual total. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in college football from the Effective Strength Ratings against the closing total, my projected totals have gone 180-158 ATS (53.3%). This is a profitable record, obtained simply by taking the games with the total projections 3.0 or more points off the actual numbers. A 3.3% advantage is hard to find for any statistical method.
Bettors Ratings
Point Spreads
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Bettors Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note that all ATS ties or tie projections are not counted.
When BR’s project the home team to win ATS: 292-285 ATS (50.6%)
When BR’s project the road team to win ATS: 229-268 ATS (46.1%)
When BR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 10-8 ATS (64.7%)
Combined: 531-561 ATS (48.6%)
This is our first “weak spot” in terms of ratings records, although I wouldn’t actually think of it as such. From the beginning, I have always proclaimed that these Bettors Ratings are the most public of the numbers I offer, as they essentially chase the feeling that the betting markets have about teams. In many cases, these ratings can prove to be more valuable for fading than following. Consider that among the biggest lessons from this article. Trust the Power Ratings and Effective Strength Ratings more than the Bettors’ Ratings, as the former two are more of my own methodology for gauging team strength. We’ll see if the rest of the queries or the numbers on totals produce similar results.
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 315-309 ATS (50.5%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 216-252 ATS (46.2%)
The above figures are interesting in that most of the non-conference action comes early in the season before many bettors, and the markets for that matter, have a good gauge on the teams. The ratings seem to strengthen as the season wears on. Something to consider moving forward.
In FBS GAMES: 252-248 ATS (50.4%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 61-59 ATS (50.8%)
In FCS GAMES: 218-254 ATS (46.2%)
This is another interesting finding in that it would seem that bettors in general are better off sticking to more of what they know. The FCS numbers have been wildly poor considering. Perhaps a fade opportunity each week with these if you dabble on those FCS games.
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Bettors’ Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual line. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in college football from to Bettors’ Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 304-294 ATS (50.8%). Note that this is a far better winning percentage than the overall numbers. Maybe bettors aren’t so bad when they have strong convictions on teams.
Totals
So far in the 2025 college season, my college football Bettors Ratings have produced these records on totals – ALL GAMES. Note that all FT ties or tie projections are not counted.
When BR’s projected OVER the total: 298-281 (51.5%)
When BR’s projected UNDER the total: 272-246 (52.5%)
Combined: 570-527 ATS (52%)
These numbers for totals on the Bettors Ratings are far better than those for the point spreads, by 3.4% in fact. This gives us some hope in finding some foundation for using these the rest of the way.
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 326-301 (52%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 244-226 (51.9%)
In FBS GAMES: 264-243 ATS (52.1%)
In FBS vs. FCS GAMES: 55-64 (46.2%)
In FCS GAMES: 251-220 ATS (53.3%)
As usual, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Bettors Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual total. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in college football from the Bettors Ratings against the closing total, my projected totals have gone 191-167 ATS (53.3%). This is again a profitable record, obtained simply by taking the games with the total projections 3.0 or more points off the actual numbers. Another 3.3% advantage that’s hard to find elsewhere.
Summary
I hope, above all, that the results of the Makinen Strength Ratings, compared to the actual results in college football, give you some confidence in the work I am putting into them and validate the methods and formulas I employ to come up with the ratings. Betting college football is certainly not easy, especially when you consider point spreads supposedly even the scales between teams. However, when you have a set of strength ratings on your side that deliver records of 54.4%, 53.7%, 53.3%, etc., it gives you a great place to start in building your handicapping routine each week. Keep following these ratings for yourself and see how they can improve your record.
