The second week of college football is alway a unique challenge.

After a summer of projecting and prognosticating we finally see the teams on the field. Some of the programs are exactly what we expected them to be, but others – looking at you Florida State – are massive disappointments.

 

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What is important for bettors to realize, is that we should not overreact. A single result should not lead you to wildly adjusting a power rating for a team. A tweak is fine, but moves of three or more points based on a result are extreme.

Yet, we see those adjustments all the time. In fact, the best bets this week involve a couple of games with adjustments just like that. So, how do we handle those changes?

Let’s get into it.

College Football Best Bets Week 2

Texas Longhorns at Michigan Wolverines

Michigan has some massive questions to answer at the quarterback position. Davis Warren looked average in the win over Fresno State. The senior averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt and threw one touchdown to one interception. As a result, the offense struggled and the Wolverines averaged 4.2 yards per play. Those issues led to the market severely downgrading Michigan, so bettors must now decide if that adjustment is warranted.

As a handicapper I tend to be hesitant to downgrade a team severely after a single result. I believe that the market has gone too far in one direction on this line, and that the home team presents some value catching over a touchdown at home. Having said that, the offense scares me enough that instead of back the Wolverines from the side, I will do so in a different way.

Michigan is legitimate on defense. It limited Fresno State to just nine yards rushing and 6.5 yards per attempt through the air. The unit also forced two turnovers, one of which was a pick-six that put the team up 13 points late in the fourth quarter. I believe this group can put up an extremely strong effort at home against Texas.

Remember, the Longhorns have been dealt two big injury blows in the backfield. They ran the ball well against Colorado State, but it was not dominant. Texas averaged just 4.6 yards per carry. It will be a much stiffer test for this offensive line on Saturday. If Michigan can make their opponent one-dimensional, I believe it could lead to a long day for the road team. As such, I think they struggle to score consistently, and I believe a play on the team total is warranted.

Play: Texas TT UNDER 25.5 (-120)

Northern Illinois Huskies at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame all but punched its ticket to the College Football Playoffs with the win over Texas A&M in Week 1. The Irish have one of the easiest schedules in the country, and it just beat one of the toughest opponents it was slated to face this season. Given what is at stake, we should see Notre Dame show next to nothing the next few weeks.

Riley Leonard ran the ball 12 times for 63 yards against the Aggies. There is no need to put him through that type of workload in a spot like this. Notre Dame should take on the form of Michigan from last season; Slow-paced and run-heavy with stout defensive play. There is no need to risk Leonard’s health, or show legitimate plays on film.

On the other end, the Irish are a superb defensive team. Northern Illinois was great on offense against Western Illinois, but it will have some real trouble against this unit. The Irish should be able to come into this game, sit on the Huskies until time expires and walk away with a low-scoring, boring victory.

Play: UNDER 45.5

Boise State Broncos at Oregon Ducks

This is another game which I believe the market has adjusted its rating too much based on one result.

Oregon closed as a 49.5-point favorite over Idaho last week and won 24-14. It led by just three points in the fourth quarter. That is extremely troubling. However, a deeper look into the game reveals the result was not as bad as it would seem.

The Ducks gained 487 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play. Dillon Gabriel completed 41-of-49 passes for 380 yards and two touchdowns. However, Oregon turned the ball over deep in Idaho territory, missed a field goal and failed to convert two fourth down attempts in the second half. The team was also called for eight penalties for a total of 60 yards, one of which negated a Gabriel scramble to the Idaho one-yard line; a situation which Dan Lanning would have gone on in order to score.

On the other side, Boise State looked less than stellar on defense in the win over Georgia Southern. The Broncos gave up 461 yards and 45 points in the win in Week 1. That could be dismissed as an outlier, but this team finished 71st in opponent EPA per play last season and allowed 6.1 yards per play. It was hardly a blip on the radar.

The market is clearly overreacting here. Oregon was much better than the final score indicated in the win over Idaho. Boise State has defensive issues lingering from last season. Less than a week ago the market believed this number should be Oregon -24.5 and now the line is -19 at most shops. This is an egregious adjustment by my measure.

Play: Oregon (-19)

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