College Football Best Bets December 19-24 from Steve Makinen:

Got the bowl season off to a great start since Saturday, going 3-0-1 ATS in the games through Tuesday, 12/17. That puts my season record at 130-116-6 ATS (52.8%) as we get ready to tackle another week’s worth of action. As a reminder, for the rest of the season, I will be posting my best bets on a week-to-week basis, covering games from Thursday through Wednesday each time.  This week, I will dig into the games scheduled for 12/19-12/24. If you haven’t seen all of it yet, I have a bunch of bowl game articles posted on the VSiN College Football Bowl Season hub. You will see that I’ve researched every game and have chosen to share my opinion on each one. Obviously, I don’t like them all the same, but I used this strategy last year for readers and did quite well. I’m off to a strong start again. So, let’s get right to my college football best bets, and before I forget, Merry Christmas to all of you.

 

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Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Caesars Superdome – New Orleans

Thursday, December 19, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

I wrote earlier this week that end-of-season momentum, or the lack thereof, is typically not all that important in bowl games. However, in some games, it can be, particularly when a late-season swoon is complicated even further by the loss of a head coach and transfer players. Well, Sam Houston State’s great 5-1 SU and ATS start is but a distant memory now that head coach KC Keeler has moved on to Temple. Before his departure, the Bearkats were 1-5 ATS down the stretch, scoring just 14.5 PPG in the process. Smaller programs that lose coaches are often decimated more than bigger programs by the transfer portal. Unfortunately, that has happened to SHSU. Now, offensive coordinator Brad Cornelson takes over for the bowl game versus Georgia Southern and head coach Clay Helton, who has coached seven prior bowl games. That sets up this bowl coaching system: First-time bowl game head coaches have struggled over the last eight seasons, going 38-55 SU and 37-55-1 ATS (40.2%) vs. non-first-year coaches. Helton’s team was 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS and closed the season with big wins over Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State. The Eagles are the more sound team at this point.

College Football Best Bets: Let’s lay the 4.5-points with Georgia Southern

Ohio vs. Jacksonville State

StaffDNA Cure Bowl – Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida

Friday, December 20, 12 p.m. (ESPN)

According to the opt-out/transfer portal trackers available for the bowl games this season, neither Ohio U nor Jacksonville State were hit very hard by the departure of their head coaches for new programs. In fact, as this line ballooned all the way up to Ohio -5 (from -2.5), with 80% of the handle backing the Bobcats, I had to go and double and triple-check to make sure that JSU QB Tyler Huff was playing in the Cure Bowl. He is, and that is a major deal as he accounted for 3700+ yards of offense and 27 TDs. So why is the line moving? I don’t see it, and perhaps it simply is because of the disparity of action coming in. None of my four sets of strength indicators show that Ohio should be favored by more than 2.5 points. These are both conference champions, with interim coaches taking over. Both looked outstanding in their league title games. Plus, MAC teams, as favorites in bowl games, are on an 8-13-1 skid. Do we trust Ohio as this big of a favorite?

College Football Best Bets: I’ll go Jacksonville State at +5 in the Cure Bowl

Tulane vs. Florida

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl – Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida

Friday, December 20, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

I was one of the few people out there forecasting a better season for Florida in 2024 than the oddsmakers were. The Gators had a win total prop of 4.5 at the outset. However, in my offseason studies, I found that head coach Billy Napier had made some nice scores on the recruiting/transfer trail, and I felt that Year 3 could be the time that he was able to put it together. He sort of did, even despite battling through injury problems. His team played with real heart, beating LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks late to reach this point. The Gators even clobbered a downtrodden FSU team in the season finale in what could easily have been a trap game. For the Gasparilla Bowl, I look for a bigger-than-usual coming-out party for QB DJ Lagway, who has an obvious future at the key position for Napier. The opponent is a Tulane team that embarrassed itself in back-to-back weeks to end the season, including losing the AAC title game to Army 35-14. The Green Wave will also be without their star QB Darian Mensah, who left for the transfer portal. Florida can prove it is back and will take this one seriously.

College Football Best Bets: I like Florida -13 over Tulane

Indiana at Notre Dame

CFP Playoff First Round – Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, Indiana

Friday, December 20, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)

Of all four sites lined up for first-round CFP games, it feels like Notre Dame is the only one in which the fans seem to be getting behind the opportunity with uber enthusiasm. In fact, this Friday night tilt is one of the biggest draws in South Bend in many years. I would expect head coach Marcus Freeman’s team to embrace the energy. As if the Irish needed any motivation, they welcome an in-state foe for the contest. This ND team has been on fire, winning and covering its last eight games, outscoring opponents 43.4 to 15.5 in the process. As such, they have been able to climb to #1 in my power ratings (68), #3 in my effective strength ratings (+41.3) and #2 in my recent ratings (also +41.3). Obviously, the biggest concern with the Hoosiers is the schedule played this season, rated #74 in the country. In the two games they played versus more physically strong teams (Ohio State and Michigan), they went 0-2 ATS and mustered just 17.5 PPG. The rest of the season, they scored 48.5 PPG. That is quite the drop-off. Notre Dame is the more complete team here and didn’t get its numbers built up by running up the score on teak teams. I’m also surprised the Irish are only getting the support of 39% of the handle and 43% of the bets at DraftKings as of 12/18. I believe bettors are wrong on this one.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll take Notre Dame -7 to open up the playoffs

SMU at Penn State

CFP Playoff First Round – Beaver Stadium – State College, Pennsylvania

Saturday, December 21, 12 p.m. ET (TNT)

I’ve seen a few arguments since the CFP bracket was announced that SMU wouldn’t be able to hold up with a team as physical and test as Penn State. Well, according to my records, these teams’ 2024 slates weren’t all that different statistically. In fact, PSU played the nation’s 47th-ranked schedule in terms of toughness and SMU the 61st. Plus, in their three toughest games (at USC, Ohio State, vs. Oregon), the Nittany Lions were 0-3 ATS. If you ask me, the oddsmakers have not done them any favorites here, incentivizing the Mustangs with a +8.5-point underdog line. SMU has been one of the best scoring offenses in the country this year, #7 in fact, in terms of my effective points scored tally, 46.6 PPG. This in itself makes the Mustangs very live dogs. I don’t want to make the mistake of overvaluing head coach Rhett Lashlee’s offense as compared to that of Oregon’s, but let’s face it: the PSU defense could hardly ever even get off the field against the Ducks in the Big Ten title game. My power ratings say these teams are only separated by 2.5 points. My effective strength numbers show the disparity is 0.9. There is no way I’m giving 6 points of home field advantage to Penn State in an early afternoon game.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll take SMU +8.5 to open the Saturday CFP action

Clemson at Texas

CFP Playoff First Round – Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas

Saturday, December 21, 4 p.m. ET (ABC)

Texas had two losses, but one Kryptonite, if you will, this season, and that was against the physicality and talent level of Georgia’s front lines, more so the Bulldogs’ defense. Other than the surprise close game against a very enthusiastic Vanderbilt team, no one really matched up with the Longhorns enough to give them a game. I don’t see Clemson doing that, and my Effective Strength indicators show Texas 13.3 points better than the Tigers. To me, the defensive difference is significant, as the Longhorns had my #1 ranked unit in the country this season, allowing an effective 3.0 PPG and holding teams 23.6 PPG below averages. If those numbers hold up, Clemson will be lucky to get 14 points. If you recall, in the two games head coach Dabo Swinney’s team faced SEC foes in 2024, they scored a total of 17 points. I know a lot of people seem to be down on head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team right now, especially QB Quinn Ewers, but I had the Longhorns as my champion at the outset of the year, and I don’t think Clemson will be the one that stands in the way.

College Football Best Bets: I don’t mind the UNDER 52, but my Best Bet will be with Texas -12

Tennessee at Ohio State

CFP Playoff First Round – Ohio Stadium – Columbus, Ohio

Saturday, December 21, 8:00 p.m. ET

If you look at Ohio State’s schedule this season, the team that Tennessee compares most to in terms of strength, speed, and athleticism would have to be Oregon. The Buckeyes struggled with that speed on both sides of the ball. I’ve noticed QB Will Howard impacted most when he plays a very fast and athletic defense. He becomes very conservative, unlike past great Buckeyes QBs. I have had the Vols and Buckeyes at similar strength numbers pretty much all season. Currently, my Effective Strength indicators show these teams separated by three points, and my recent ratings show just 1.1 points. I’m not sure it’s fair for oddsmakers to hang such a lofty number on a game in which the teams are both highly rated like this, particularly since OSU’s offense only scored 27.5 PPG in the second half of the season. If you recall, the Tennessee offense behind QB Nico Iamaleava got red hot out of the gate, scoring 191 points in its first three games. It is that capable, and in the final two games, they started to show some of that potential again. I wouldn’t pick this spread if I didn’t think UT had a chance to compete and/or win.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll go Tennessee +7 at Ohio State

Coastal Carolina vs. Texas-San Antonio

Myrtle Beach Bowl – Brooks Stadium – Conway, South Carolina

Monday, December 23, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)

Coastal Carolina may not have had its best season in recent memory and has some injury/transfer portal issues to deal with in its bowl games versus UTSA, but like the Chanticleers, UTSA was also 6-6 and as of Wednesday 12/17 was sitting as a 9.5-point favorite in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. If you aren’t familiar, this game is played on the home field of Coastal Carolina. Yes, the 6-6 Roadrunners are 9.5-point road favorites in a bowl game. We’ll see what kind of pride CCU has, but for the record, they did rally for a 48-27 win as an underdog at Georgia State in the finale to extend their season a few weeks. That’s a good start. UTSA also rallied at the end of the regular season, winning its last four ATS. However, as I showed in my Hot & Not Bowl Trends article from earlier this week, that hasn’t really been an important factor in bowl games. What could be a more important factor is that a near double-digit bowl favorite allowed 24 points or more in all but two games and averaged yielding 31 PPG in its final eight contests.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll take Coastal Carolina on its home field at 9.5-point dogs

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Albertsons Stadium – Boise, Idaho

Monday, December 23, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

To me, this is one of the more perplexing bowl games of the season, and where the line sits has me wondering if oddsmakers are simply penalizing Fresno State far too much for QB Mikey Keene skipping the game for the transfer portal. If you don’t know, NIU’s QB Ethan Hampton is also in the portal and has committed to Wake Forest, meaning both teams will be working on replacements at the game’s key position. So, I have to ask why FSU is being docked far more? My power ratings, without any transfer/opt-out deductions, show FSU at 39.5 and NIU at 36. My bettors ratings echo that, with a -12.6 to -9 difference. Looking back at the recent bowl histories of these programs, you will also find that the Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight bowl games, while the Bulldogs have won four in a row. Not to mention, this is MAC versus Mountain West, two different level conferences if you ask me. The lesser conference team is favored with just one win separating the season records. That could be a nice motivator for FSU. I think this line is wrong.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll take Fresno State +3 vs. NIU on the familiar blue turf

South Florida vs. San Jose State

Hawai’i Bowl – Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex – Honolulu

Tuesday, December 24, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) 

San Jose State plays in Hawaii for the second straight bowl season. While some people might feel that is a disappointment, in last year’s Hawaii Bowl, the Spartans were dealing with a coach departure situation and never really showed up, losing to Coastal Carolina 24-14. For 2024, SJSU’s coaching situation is in great shape, with Ken Niumatalolo at the helm long term, and he typically gets his teams ready for bowl games as he is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his last six. On top of that, his team is taking on a South Florida team that underperformed in 2024, going 6-6 while failing to record a win over an eventual bowl team in five tries. Head coach Niumatalolo also endured some personal loss this past week when his father passed away. I imagine his team will rally around that situation and use it as a motivating factor to come up big for their leader.

College Football Best Bets: I’ll go San Jose State -3 in the Hawaii Bowl

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